Member Info for Kando

Peoplepower, you're a donkey. Stop posting. Two weeks ago you were busy vaunting (read: screaming from the rooftop) your BUY HIGH PANIC SELL LOW! strategy. It's probably most concerning to holders that you're seemingly now back in. Usually it's best to always do the opposite of flappable people like you in order to make money.

Pointless post?

Yes shares can go down as well as up.

There's no point crying over spilt milk. The share price will correct in time, so any losses (for those who held through it all) will have been paper. A protracted and public court case would damage the share price far more than any potential settlement could recompense. It wouldn't be wise to force Telegraph to out their sources, and find out that, indeed yes, internally, Derm had considered restricting supply. It sucks that it happened, but a retraction is the least worst outcome.

Yeah, it's not London specific. Almost all US tech companies that listed at a similar time to THG, SPAC or otherwise are down by similar, if not more amounts: Matterport, Arrival, Robinhood, Rivian, are but a few among an ocean of strong IPOs that have plummetted in the last 6 months. Blaming London for a broader market shift away from risk-on growth stocks is simply naive. THG's woes were compounded by Matt's absurd communications strategy, which would have been punished similarly anywhere it happened to have been listed.

Earth to Matt.

Wouldn't mind some clarification on the proposed separation of the business. From the moment it was announced, the company became impossible to price. Hence why the share price is where it is. Shareholders buy, or have bought, on future earnings and have no way of rating this stock without knowing how much of THG Beauty (which accounts for the lions share of earnings) they will continue to own or not own. The communication from the company has allowed the market to infer a heavy dilution is pencilled in, forcing them to price the business entirely on today's earnings and no future earnings (because what are they?) So here we are, nearly at cash-in-hand value, the business discounted almost to zero.

It's been long enough now to either flesh out the proposals or mothball them. At the current shareprice, any separation now would be more or less farcical, and dissolve what little value is left.

I think Matt ought to have checked the precedent before so blithely announcing it, almost in protest at what he then thought, was an undervaluation (at 700p).

Businesses like these are priced far more favourably in the gestalt. To have all the divisions under one entity means the share is inherently diversified. One part of the business performing poorly? That's fine, the other parts are doing well. To break them all up lets them flounder alone.
Did Ocado break off it's automated warehouse tech from its grocery business?
Did Amazon break off AWS from it's online retail?

The one props up and allows the fuelled growth of the other.

Do the right thing. The administrative house is now nearly in order for a premium listing, but leave it there. Announce a new long term strategy that doesn't involve carving up the company. It's too small to carve up and have each (Ingenuity especially) survive on their own. Then the share price will be back above where it once was.

"This Sector has moved into ‘risk off’ and sentiment won’t change until consumer habits are known within an inflationary cycle, now likely to hit 8% . Best move into commodities !"

By the time the market knows what consumer habits are in a high inflation environment, shares like this will have already rerated. These are the prices you buy in at when uncertainty is rife, if you personally believe, as here, that budget and discount brands will be resilient and prosper. People don't stop needing clothes in a recession, they just buy cheaper clothes. Similarly, boohoo's demographic isn't the one with increasing mortgage payments or fuel bills or petrol. Many of them still live at home with parents or in university accomodation care of student loans. Their demand will be impacted less than the 30+ demographic (given average age of getting on the housing ladder) hit hardest by broader cost of living rises. For 16-25 year olds, worst case for them, if the economy tanks, they go back to live at home, have no outlays, maybe they even collect job seekers allowance if they lose or can't find a job and...still buy clothes so they can go hang out with friends and not look like a pauper when doing so. Just my two cents. Could be wrong. But I look at boohoo and the like, more or less how others look at Poundland - they do well in a recession.

*quiet

It's telling that you can't even the spell the word, nor understand the concept.

I haven't said anything in either chat. I bought in on last week's lows, having hitherto said they had further to fall. I care not of PE rumours or "ramping" and "bull s,.h'itting newbies" [sic]. I just want you to stop spamming other share's forums with unrelated Capita ramping. I report every one of your posts and thankfully, the site seems to agree with me and all your posts have been removed. Enough now. Be "quite" [sic].

NOFEAR. You should sell this share and buy THG and BOO. Capita is going nowhere but down. Time to save yourself from further losses and buy shares with real prospects. /s

Your near nonstop spam all month on those other boards will not be missed. Nice to see all your posts have been removed by moderators.

I believe the nomenclature by increment goes pop, whoosh, boom, kapow, penthouse.

Rumour is it's going to be Jeff Bezos. Big if true.

Don't particularly want a buyout. This has the look of sports direct in 2008; out of favour and shorted like it was going out of business, and then...up 30x over the next 6 years. They are fairly similar businesses, but THG probably has a higher technological moat, as referenced by Moody's report. It also has more automation in the pipeline and broader scope for product/brand expansion. Yes it's out of favour now, like whole sectors of the market are out of favour now, but if companies like ocado, at its current size, can spike up to a market cap of over 25bn, in a sector with notoriously low margins, I'm optimistic that a company like THG, with much healthier potential margins, will ultimately reach a loftier market cap - in time. It won't happen overnight, but just 6 months ago brokers were giving price targets above £10. Nothing that would justify 90% value destruction has materially changed. Supply chains still a bit sketchy for everyone but as yet seem to have had minimal impact here. Yes inflation bad, but discounters with the most competitive prices tend to do best in recessionary/inflationary environments- if suppliers are complaining THG are discounting too much (but ultimately doing nothing about it) then that's about where a company like this should be in terms of price competitiveness. The governance issue will have a tentative line drawn beneath it once a decent chairman is announced.

A few months ago when this was 180p, I posted here that I thought it had further to fall, that it would see 125p before it saw any recovery. It was just based on the optics and sentiment, towards the company and towards the market. That we all got a chance to buy below £1 perhaps was a little surprising, but very welcome. No one has a crystal ball on stocks but this one looks to be a bargain to hold for the long term from here.

Illiterate troll farm bot is illiterate. Don't they sell spell checkers in Putingrad?

This is the THG chat, not capita.

There's a whiff of peak fear here. Internal issues like the threat of PE takeover and splitting off divisions, colliding with external market fear over ukraine, inflation and the imminent fed tightening cycle. When any of these ease up, the enthusiasm and volatility that has driven this share price down will drive it back up. All of those things will, in time, pass, and with it the sentiment that is hammering growth stocks. The market likes and rewards certainty. Some of those things are in Matt Moulding's hands. Ruling out the Beauty spinoff would do a huge amount; likewise declaring no interest in taking it private. If he's in it for the long haul though, he doesn't really need to do anything, as the company will speak for itself, and the economic climate will change around it. Peak fear's usually a good time to buy though.

Yes Hosai. Makes this share one of the most discounted vs its value on the exchange. A decent enough company on, what is more or less: a 90% off flash sale.
Margins under the figures are more than healthy. Too many are taking last year's marketing/development costs at face value, not pricing in that it pays for itself in future growth. The company could stop marketing and R&D tomorrow and post some very healthy looking profits, but growth costs money - money they had in the bank, and money that's better invested in next year's growth than sat in low yield savings or shipped out in dividends. It's what growing companies are usually expected to do, but with market sentiment over the last 6 months turning itself off to risk, it's temporarily being punished for what it would once have been rewarded. Eventually the market will drift back to risk-on and THG will be priced more generously, but now's just a very decent opportunity to accumulate.

What seems always true of every share, anywhere, is that, when Nuri shows up talking up selling, it's precisely the time to buy. His trading and posting strategy is buy high and ramp, or sell low and deramp. He's the market's most reliable indicator.

"any other shares dropped this way"
@smartpee For reference, RMG fell similarly from 2018 to early 2020, from 630p to 121p. Then in the following 12 months returned to 613p. Yes, they are different industries, and only comparable in indirect ways, but still with significant market overlap (the one delivering the products of the other). A recovery of all sorts is possible. Much depends on the wider market sentiment.

"no one is buying this POS stock"

Some are, the current price is quite attractive.

Yeah, this is AIM afterall. Looks like fairly successful price manipulation by Betaville, pump and dump on the desperation play, just like THG the other week. Both shares looking for any excuse to see some fledgling recovery, so they float an unsubstantiated rumour to get a typically overzealous response on an AIM listed stock. Easy 10-20% for them, then the share drifts back down to where it actually wants to be, with no further mention of a takeover - not that it's even likely that a takeover offer would be successful.

Don't really want to rustle any feathers here as it's clear there's a lot of people heavily invested in both directions, but I just want to put it out there that (in my humble opinion) this share is still a bit of a gift right now.

A year is always going to look poor relative to a once-in-a-generation windfall bumper year of lockdowns and a fully closed highstreet. Take 2020 out and it's performance tracks very well from 2019 to 2021, so ultimately when the market returns to something closer to rationality and the sentiment drifts away from growth/tech stock FUD, it's not hard to imagine boo back at a premium to 2019 prices. Sure, that could take 12-18 months, but the returns would justify the patience.