Member Info for JonTaylor

It's a good point Nevas,
Their June 22nd Transformation Update detailed the total secured debt, including the Group's £24m revolving credit facility, other guarantees and letters of credit at £18m.
On August 20th the 'administration of Mothercare UK Limited had resulted in a substantial reduction in the amounts owed and, albeit with some potential claims still outstanding, we still estimate the shortfall that the Group may have an obligation to make good as some £10 million'.
I actually think an understated positive was the reference to franchise partners making direct payments to suppliers, alleviating the cash requirements. Believe this will be hugely transformative on future cash requirement & debt needed to finance the business. Once refinancing is secure we'll get an RNS, think this is what is next, then we'll know true picture. Jtini

The last few days have seen some huge transactions going through compared to preceding months. I see this panning out roughly along the following lines. New CEO (needs to be a serious player, no clowns), Refinancing of the £18m debt (I'm assuming the existing Gordon Bros loan terms not too onerous, a more main stream lender preferable). These two imo are about to be announced hence the SP movement.
Then, onward & upwards, let's assume with recovery Mothercare Global can get back to 50% of 2019 profits, so £13m, add in a couple of mill from Boots UK royalties. Apply a v. modest p/e of 5x gives us £75m mkt cap compared to £40m today. So short term 18-20p, medium term 30-40p as international franchise operators reload fully. Beauty of this model is costs all under control now and staying so. Jtini

That is a possibility down the line, after the Administrator's sell on clause expires November, with potential interest from the likes of Next. But right here and now I feel this is based on imminent news of a strong CEO &/or refinancing, either of which is a game changer. Jtini

Worth remembering what's in play here. Gone is the whole UK retail estate, something a helluva lot of retailers are scrabbling to do right now. Mothercare now 'left with' an enviable global franchise network that in 2019 returned annual profits on it's own of £28m. And that's without factoring in anything for the Boots deal. Two important pieces of the jigsaw still awaiting confirmation, refinancing of the £15m debt and a heavyweight CEO. With these in place, double from today, and then with figures to back up double again. Still a long way to go but looking positive. LTH with 60k shares on the table. Jtini

Personally think the absence of an RNS suits us atm, far better a really powerful one when it arrives rather than a series of damp squibs. Market gets anaesthetised to those who release non information titbits which serve no real purpose. Let's make no mistake Tobias will make our day in style when he's ready. Jtini

Apart from JCB also being a Racing Point partner / sponsor, their shared passion includes Ferrari's. Especially very rare ones, both having owned the 250 GTO.

Bamford as in the B of JCB 3300. He owned the pair of DB5's used in the making of Thunderball, subsequently sold. Wouldn't have backed Stroll without knowing his money was safe. Likes a bargain too I guess, saw him at Bicester last year with his missus Carole. Jtini

Lot of movement here all of a sudden. Think someone knows something on our CEO appointment. Jtini

Don't see taking this private an option. First clue number of shares in issue Way too many of us pesky share holders with 1.8 Billion raffle tickets out there, it's not on. Second no roster of institutions lining up to offload substantial holdings to the privatisation vehicle. Third cost, refinancing of balance sheet debt, plus huge fees to all the usual suspects. Fourth, risk of bringing an interloper to the party. Honestly feel that Stroll has his plan, this is his legacy, designer clothing however good the brands were is not in the same league as Aston Martin. He literally has spent his business life waiting for this opportunity. I just can't see taking it private being part of his mindset. More like a game changing JV down the line on electric but that's not for now.

BP your strategy reminds me of another investor in this story, who must have been watching it all the way down from £19, biding his time, realising it was heading for wipe out as he made his move. The cheque he personally wrote ran to nine figures. How many Exec Chair's have that sort of hard cash invested.
Rox, if you're reading this, I can't day trade AML, even being out for one hour would feel so goddamn risky when the news could come at any time. And we all know Mr Stroll likes to surprise us. Jtini

SMMT manufacturing data for July published Thursday 27th, under embargo at midnight tonight. Not sure if price sensitive information specific to AML contained within, but guess we'll know tomorrow. Paul / Cars any thoughts. Jtini

Have position in both of these, but full disclosure have broken all my usual rules, AML investment is 10x that of CINE. Both exciting but only one makes me feel ten years younger! Jtini

Do not sell.
Imho.
Jtini

Health & wellbeing warning.
DNS.
Imho.
Jtini

Would've thought the BOD spend the first hour of every day asking themselves the same question over and over. Why the heck didn't we do this before. Impressive global network (example Retail World, Alshaya Group) and now Boots running the UK franchise, and all those horrendous costs evaporated. Enviable lean operating model now in place. Needs a heavyweight appointment to CEO and this price is long gone in the rear view mirror. Usual caveats apply & obvs not for the faint hearted. Jtini

Hi, I'm Rox, and I'm an addict. You are hilarious for all the right reasons mate, quality straight talking, no smoke & mirrors. Likewise 3300, very passionato about this fixation that we all share here (yes you're right, added another 10k to the 25, anything in the mid 50s seeming too irresistible to not want to top up my already way overstretched pot money here). Jtini

imo 2 categories of investor / people in this life, glass is either half full or empty. That's it. So the empties (could either be shorters or simply beating themselves up for missing out) only get turned on by a receding SP, it's their daily fix. F air game, but it's not for me. The half fullers (proud to be one) aren't delusional in their expectations, we're not selling the house & flying out to Vegas to put it on black, but we've done our research & believe in the opportunity presented here. Personally with 35k on the table, it can be an expensive week at times, but it can be & will continue to be, absolute nectar when the stars align. Good luck on our continuing adventure all my friends on here. Jtini

You are correct S53, current mkt cap just below global franchise annual profit in 2019, and now Boots to add on, and no horrible lease exposure anymore. As a business model it's a beacon amidst today's UK retail nuked landscape, excepting the debt which isn't exactly a millstone but nonetheless cash is king in these times. Think a respected CEO appointment is going to make the difference to a rapid re-rate, and believe this will happen after today's update. Not easy to be so at times, but believe patience will be rewarded here. Jtini

Worth considering that in this exotic ytd of trading, FTSE stocks are the new AIM, AIM the new penny stocks. Intra day volatility can be eye watering, but doesn't detract from fundamentals here. My only regret is that anything with a 5 in it allows all those who spent a few days in an ice bath regretting not getting on board at these prices earlier, another chance. Not sure such characters take their get out of jail card though, probably still rueing not buying at 28. Jtini

Looking back to March 2019 ac's, strip out anything to do with Uk retail 'cos it's gone, and the global business is in there with 'Adjusted International profit before taxation and foreign currency revaluations of £28.3m', against today's current market cap of £22.45m. Add on the Boots deal at terms 'commensurate with those of other franchise agreements', and what's not to like. I think there will be big global players teeing this up once the November Administrator's +50% on any deal expires. As always please DYOR. Good to see you on here Nevas, I see we have shared interests other than AML! Jtini