Member Info for JonTaylor

Personally, not too concerned about the short positions. They’re currently stuck in an uncomfortable bind which only benefits us. We’re in a positive trend up, underwritten by all the strong signalling that has been telegraphed by the BOD, and that’s before any major capital news. Next step is the psychological 117, achievable short term just on current momentum, then this heads up rapidly when MM makes his move. He will have been planning this with a ferocious intensity that will take many by surprise I believe, maybe Ingenuity spun out at same time as a major signing IMO. GLA

It’s interesting with Ocado coming back into favour, that their original meteoric rise was fuelled by the Solutions business partnering with overseas grocery chains. Every time a new partnership was signed the SP took off. I see great similarities with Ingenuity but improved odds for THG as they don’t have the up front build out costs associated with the Ocado model. Payback time is much faster when we partner. This imo is why the Apollo mission tried to come into the space, why MM has transformed the corporate structure with his Board taking stakes, and shrugging off the GS. And most importantly why he is getting his ducks lined up with big funds ready to go from the Propco deal. GLA

Those large after close transactions still happening, over a million shares this evening, continuing a daily trend witnessed for the last 30 or so trading days. Things are definitely brewing. GLA

So if repeated, our 51% rise since 64p one whole month ago, would be 146p simply on organic news, without anything sensational occurring. Now imagine what would happen, if say our founder announced at 07.00 one morning that with the backing of some extremely well heeled investors that he bumped into in Dubai, Ingenuity was being spun out with a valuation of £1Bn+ with MM injecting a very sizeable cash sum that had recently arrived in his JPM HNW account courtesy of a property sale. There is an end game in sight I believe and I feel the 50p club and associated folk might not be on the guest list. GLA

Have watched the post close transactions over the last 25+ trading sessions, and consistently there’s been several large c£100k plus deals going through each day, & today even chunkier 2x £450k 1x£200k. Previously very little activity of this size after hours. Strange.

Add to the mix MM’s recent against the grain behaviour travelling to Dubai, early release of GS, and now the significant property deals. It’s a lot of coincidences in a short space of time. GLA

As we close in on the nervous 90’s, reaching £1 is just a couple of boundaries away, at which point I believe things can move dramatically on, a bit like a Ben Stokes innings. There are twin stories playing out here; pure solid trading and costs under control are underpinning the steady incremental week on week rise, whilst the likelihood of a big capital event is increasingly likely. Large scale property deals add substantial plausibility to this scenario. Those looking for an entry point in the 50’s are probably going to be disappointed. GLA

Definitely a good week on balance, albeit not an easy watch yesterday, but nudging closer to the 90-100 range at which point things can move at quite a rate.

Property sales by both Moulding Cap and the Group are very significant events and undoubtedly part of a wider picture here now playing out. GLA

Stand in any Post Office for 5 minutes and witness a constant stream of returners sending it all back to Asos & Boo. We are in a completely different category. Lightyears apart.

The property news here is stunning imo, it is all falling into place now. No wonder Matt’s body language was so decisive that day he told Apollo to sling their hook. He doesn’t need PE, Matt is the PE. GLA

As the SP continues on it’s rebuild path and nudges ever closer to the 90-100 range, any single significant news event, even outside of a bid or spin off, can then easily move us past the 117 milestone over a few days. A series of Ingenuity sign ups would move it rapidly on from there. Apollo saw the direction of travel here and have underpinned this even if no longer at the table. What is good is that all the naysayers, chancers, and lazy news story writers are being gradually flushed out and the THG waters are starting to sparkle. GLA

@Pearls

A very well thought through rationale of how the institutional investors are only just starting to appreciate the potential here. I would go one further, and say the breadth of knowledge on this board outdoes the PPV analysts any day. Trim the handful of crazies from infecting this when they pop up and you’re left with a fantastic hardcore insight into MM and his mindset. Another good incremental notch up from close of play last week. GLA

@Monty888

Strong analysis of key fundamentals here, thank you!

I believe the power play is currently in Ingenuity, and that MM was in Dubai talking to the serious money who get it. There will be a constant stream of news from this division that keeps notching us up 5-10p over a few days, and before you know it who needs Apollo, we’re there anyway. Oh and btw we have these two other parts of the business that are quite useful as well. GLA

The closer we get to 80-90p trading range means any good news arriving from Ingenuity, which it will, propels this upwards incrementally through the low to mid 100s even without any significant capital event. Barclays sentiment, recent solid trading RNS, Vivek firing up nicely on multiple cylinders, it augurs well. GLA

I believe today’s announcement cancelling the Special Share early is directly linked to discussions in Dubai, maybe also the US, and that a large capital event is at an advanced stage. This is a pre-emptive strike by MM to head off Apollo, who haven’t gone anywhere and will be all over this now reviewing their options. GLA

@schlemiel

That ‘fundamental corporate change’ is coming up fast in the headlights imo. Dubai, MM’s Linkedin body language, Vivek, Ingenuity PwC alliance, are all suggesting to me that the corporate action is going to be Ingenuity spun off via a SoftBank V2 type investment at a sum greater than the whole group is currently valued at. Now that would be an interesting RNS. GLA

The upward momentum is gaining. Last year’s relentless bashing, epitomised by The Times’ Alistair Osborne referencing THG as a smashed up shed is no longer the narrative. Looking through the prism at this point in time, which many powerful investors and partners will be doing, the story is now significantly a compelling one. GLA

@1pencil

Several large volume trades going through after hours on multiple occasions last few days.

Interesting news from Dubai especially considering MM doesn’t even like travelling for work..GLA

@Manifesto

@Canary

Spot on, the Rule 2.8 announcement gives Apollo the right to re-enter under a number of circumstances, including ‘an offer..by or on behalf of a third party’, ‘a reverse takeover’, or ‘a material change of circumstances’.

So, whatever MM has planned it had better be good, because Apollo want this. Should be interesting when the RNS’s drop. My hunch is Matt with friends offers to take Ingenuity private, proposes special dividend to shareholders, Apollo delivers a counter strike which they can do at that point. GLA

@schlemiel @Anacott

Indeed, an excellent piece of information, and one that underscores the seriousness of Ingenuity. PwC don’t partner lightly, and this gives great validity and gravitas to where Vivek and Matt are currently at and where we are heading GLA

A couple of chunky trades, just over 500k shares, went through after close.

A useful reality check when doubts might creep in, is that Apollo have seen huge upside here, when they could have their pick from so many opportunities in the bombed out market. For Moulding to justify the rebuff he has to deliver, and that is either through strong interim figures for the half-year ending 30 June, a strategic partnership alongside a capital event involving Beauty or Nutrition, or a blockbuster SoftBank V.2 taking a stake in a spun off Ingenuity leaving MM in control once more of his destiny. Any of these 3 options need demonstrable action inside of next three months, otherwise it’s Apollo’s once again and they won’t mess around at that point. Plenty to like imo GLA