Member Info for JonTaylor

@licker Interesting comment about global territories..

Over at Beauty, the roster of specific country sites for lookfantastic, all with local currency capabilities, is quite an impressive list, offering serious worldwide coverage to partner brands. It emphasises the differentiation between THG and fashion based peers, with both our reach, and just as important that most of it doesn’t get sent back.

GLA

THG Ingenuity Cloud Services is a pretty impressive site on its own. Global network with 40,000sq.ft data centres in Singapore, New Jersey, Tokyo, and London. Access to partnerships with leading IT vendors such as Nvidia. Could well be someone like that who takes a minority stake in Ingenuity, allowing payment of a special dividend to shareholders. MM retains control, shares in the remaining Beauty & Nutrition instantly re-rate, I’m convinced Matt is talking with this type of possible future partner already. GLA

Think the words of Rob Seminara, Head of Europe at Apollo, that in European private equity they ‘have been focused on our core strategies of opportunistic buyouts, carve-outs and deleveraging situations. Using all three tools, we’ve been able to find great businesses that others did not appreciate.’

Imo they’ll be back, probably mulling it over in their signature coffee bar at the new London offices right now..GLA

I'm thinking Bwana that Ingenuity is the key here. Part A. A deal is done for Beauty or Nutrition, perhaps both, at easily over double today's SP. Ingenuity is then spun out majority owned by MM. Bearing in mind that not so long ago Softbank had an option to take a 20% stake in Ingenuity for $1.6Bn, a zero valuation now seems a trifle overdone, but sort of helps Moulding. Part B. Simultaneously, Matt alongside QIA and others take Ingenuity private for £800m+, offering another 55p cash to those who want it, or take shares in the new vehicle. He has to get away from the stock market, and in turn prove himself by growing Ingenuity in rapid time to £3Bn + value. I don't doubt that he can do this. Unsurprising that Apollo probably were looking to do the same and then exit at Part B. Matt if you're reading this can you please just get a move on and make this happen. GLA

The niche Equine Co. is part of ADM, headquartered in Chicago, I believe. ADM is one of the world’s largest nutrition CO’s. Revenues from human and animal nutrition in 2022 were in excess of $7Bn

Think the key underlying detail to keep in mind here is that Matt Moulding must have a plan ready to unveil before September. As soon as he reveals his hand to take this private, Apollo will move again imo, which according to the Rule 2.8 announcement reserves them the right to set aside the restrictions of the Code and announce an offer or possible offer for THG

ii) following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for THG, by or on behalf of a third party

As painful as the disappearance of 117p seems now, it will be well, well north of that the day it comes. GLA

It’s worth remembering that LA has purchased 2,400,000 shares with an average of c63p, so Matt would have to be making a compelling argument to his Chairman to sit tight for a short while longer. £2 from Apollo and he would have walked away with £3.25M! Not bad for 14months work. I wonder what he knows..GLA

Mustn't lose sight of the fact that whatever MM posts or comes up with prior, on Sept 16th all bets are off. I'm sure he has a grand plan in place that we will all benefit from. That imo is why he was so quick to give Apollo the brush off. They sensed an opportunity and Moulding couldn't get them out of the door quick enough. He was enraged that they fronted up to him. Personally I don't care who gives us our share of the spoils, others will be looking at this right now. Apollo aren't the only outfit in the world capable of making the deal happen. Pressure's on Matt. GLA

What intrigues me here is that our Chairman has a significant chunk of his own dough invested, so MM must already have something at an advanced stage that convinced LA to back him on terminating talks with Apollo, and their 125p with strings attached, tout de suite. GLA

Imho. The approach from Apollo was strategically well planned to take advantage of the run up to GS expiry and give them a free run at this. The rebuff from MM seemed pretty startling in its haste, and makes me think there’s more to this than meets the eye. Also, GS or not, the Chairman and Non Execs would have had to be consulted and chose to back Matt over Apollo. I wonder what they know. GLA

@Pearls

An incisive post which sums up v.neatly what has happened and is happening here. Apollo have lent credibility to the many exit scenarios debated here over the last few months. This is heating up nicely now. GLA

@Manifesto

Think you have a point, something doesn’t quite add up here. It’s almost as if Apollo were given the bum’s rush, ejected from the process at the earliest opportunity. Matt didn’t want them involved because he has a viable plan and it doesn’t include them. As long as we’re all at the same table for the feast when it’s served up I’m happy with that. GLA

Director and Chairman share buying would go a long way now to add substance to the statements by Matt on Linkedin. If, as he says, ‘Apollo’s bid price’ is not ‘in the best interest of THG. Myself, Charles and the Board..all agreed on that’. Come on guys, let’s have a further vote of confidence here from you with some buying GLA

Apollo terminated at Wood Group whereas our Board terminated with them. Apollo will have done a huge amount of preliminary work on this already, they will be looking at how they can make it stack up for Matt, and coming back to the table imo. Nothing in the 2.8 precludes them from making ‘an offer or possible offer within six months..with the agreement or recommendation of the board of THG; or following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for THG, by a third party’. It reads to me as if the door is open to Apollo returning, and after the failure to do a deal at Wood they won’t want this to slip through their fingers. GLA

Just a couple of insights from the Annual Report:

Our protein bars, snacks and drinks are stocked in Puregym, with expansion across further gym groups a strategic priority for 2023.

In the USA, MyProtein recently launched on The Vitamin Shoppe, one of the leading speciality nutrition retailers in the USA. The USA market is a key strategic focus going forward.

There’s a reason why Apollo made a play now and it’s simple, it will cost them double in 6 months time.

GLA

What has changed for me is Apollo basically giving a serious validation of everything we’ve been saying here for the last few months. I think MM pushed them away rapidly as he’s already got a plan at a detailed stage that is going to be in place before he goes away for the summer holiday. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that a.n.other is taking a very close look at this right now too. 1 hefty Ingenuity signing soon would change everything imo. Very interesting few weeks coming up on so many fronts. GLA

I think MM is venting at the shorters not us LTH when he says ‘some of the 35%’. Intriguing that Apollo’s 2.8 statement reserves the right to set aside restrictions and announce an offer or possible offer within 6 months’, in the following circumstances:

1. With the agreement of the board of THG

2. Following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for THG, by or on behalf of a third party

So they’re not exactly out out, are they? GLA LTH

In fairness to MM, Apollo and for that matter any other PE know where the line in the sand is when entering into discussions. So for that reason I don’t find his riposte disrespectful, more a robust telling of how it is. Reassuring that Apollo have given a pretty clear signal that there’s nothing nasty under the bonnet, which is a powerful message to the many others thinking of having a tilt. GLA

Can't pretend the last 6 days have been easy seeing such a drop here. But, Apollo have confirmed for all to see that there is significant value in THG, they just couldn't unlock it in a way that was acceptable to Matt Moulding. It would have been far worse if the deal was off because of issues with what they found under the bonnet. Could just be that another yet to be revealed party comes to the table. Now wouldn't that be interesting. GLA

Appreciate all the honest opinions on here. Of course it hurts seeing the last 5 or 6 trading sessions and 119p ish seems a long way off. but having said that it would be borderline unbearable to have sold at around a quid and see this taken out at £1.50+. That's why I'm still in GLA