Member Info for jonhas

Just looking at Fincapp's figures, and they have confirmed what I was concluding. Performance has dropped from 10.1m to 4.8m so over 50%, and the programmatic is pretty static at 60.1 from 60.7. Very bizarre that this is not a point made by the company, seems to me to change the tone of the results.

One interesting observation is that TRMR is quoting 87% for their % of revenue from video (incl. CTV), that's up from circa 80% reported in H1 and Q1 - and the figure has kept at this level for some quarters.. Now if those relative percentages are multiplied on Q2 and Q3s ex TAC figures then the video ex. TAC figure remains virtually static 56.4m from 56.6m. The non-video portion falls 40% which is okay.
Its been clear for an age now that video and specifically CTV is where the core biz is going so according to this the core biz did not drop. That's assuming that the 87% figure published is correct. If correct then it would put a more favourable light on the figures.

Seems to me that games are being played by the company. Exxon reported Q3 guidance on op profit of $11 bn from 17.6 in Q2 - so 6.6bn less! Its shares didn't dive but surged on the news and are hovering around the 52 week high. Its refining and chemicals divisions are a bigger component of its profits than Shell's and they took a serious hit in Q3. But if you compare YOY then its all great.
Just seen that UBS have estimated a decline of $1.3 to 2 bn for Shell on Q3 which is consistent with my own workings and its SP takes a hit, on what is much better news in comparison. But if you report it as a pseudo profits warning then that's what you get and this is not the first time. Deliberate playing and manipulation.

Interesting thread, seems to me kewjosh has not allowed for the very specific circumstances. He's applying a general rule to a company and market that have very specific circumstances. The results from Hbr were excellent but that's no unique however the UK and European O&G market is unlike any other at the moment.

I thought I'd state the generally accepted. Still PERI is a good investment - and still at present with the Israeli discount attached when compared to the others. But TRMR is now on another level, at least in terms of metrics. And hopefully all the recent initiatives will begin to deliver.

Yes, I also have more confidence in PERI's management - its hard not to when given the difference in investor calls and briefings. However TRMR has positioned itself well in CTV and video over the past couple of years, and before the others started the same race in earnest - PERI included. Was that luck or foresight. The Unruly deal appears to have been managed well. PERI has a reliance on Microsoft and a legacy biz which is slower growing, etc, etc. I too, am invested in both but more heavily in TRMR. PERI does has a lot to like, including the valuation and growth. I do like the recent Amobee deal and just need some encouragement from Q2 to start selling my energy shares to fund a another round of ad-tec investment.

Gdog, no I meant to say what I wrote. PERI has some positives vis a vis TRMR and a number of negatives. If the market was rational and reviewing the two on fundamentals then I don't think PERI would be on a premium to TRMR, a discount is more logical given all the circumstances and risks. The key difference is I believe the front man, or perhaps team. Remove Ofer and introduce an investor friendly CEO and there would I think be a correction over time in perception. However I'm not judging Ofer in his effectiveness in running the company just the investor's perception which is temporary - hopefully.

gdog, although you are correct with your figures, the 35% rise is across the board and includes the search side of the biz. - based just on the display advertising then growth is 41% - with CTV at 90% and video at 273%. I'm not expecting anything like this from TRMR at this juncture but it just goes to show that growth is there for the taking if you have the right proposition. TRMR is now trading on a 2.29x EBITDA/EV based on a continued 8% growth rate for Q3 and Q4, as guided in Q2. That's now around half of PERI. It wasn't that long ago that they were similar. With a rational 360 degree review, I think PERI would do well to be on the same rating as TRMR. The Amobee deal shows the level of ambition that TRMR has.

Another current source has Amobee also in the leader quadrant, pretty close to TTD. Rhythmone is shown right at the bottom. What's interesting is that neither source have TRMR mentioned as a DSP other than Rythmone in this one. So I'm concluding that it must be adding significant capabilities as well as scale. Consistent with the comments coming from TRMR management and blurb. Perhaps its as key as Unruly was to the SSP side.


hxxps://www.g2.com/reports/grid-report-for-demand-side-platform-dsp-summer-2022?featured=adelphic&secure%5Bgated_consumer%5D=13951f87-c813-4613-8328-f14b1ad280dd&secure%5Btoken%5D=660aa8e8db8c9779a3552787d55750ada32298185a24053e70c9ad0c824589e6&utm_campaign=gate-1836367

Having read and heard all the communications regarding Amobee, one thing that made me wonder was the persistent referencing to additional (or possibly inferred superior) tech capabilities. So when I came across this hxxps://pages.amobee.com/gartner-magic-quandrant
it gave some colour to the the subject.
I found it particularly interesting as before I invested in Tremor I had researched the industry and Tremor was nowhere to be seen from the perspective of Gartner, Forrester, etc. Now thru the acquisition we have jumped into a leader spot and perhaps with the combined capabilities we may yet be "the leader". Watch out TTD.

Can anyone confirm HBRs hedging positions for 22/23? I've been looking at the annual report and it appears to state some contradictory statements. It mentions - 22 Gas @ 59% hedged, 22 oil @ 50% hedged. However it also later mentions some specifics which do not add up. Anyone know?

Following the debate regarding how the WT is applied and obviously if Soder is correct then the falls in SP are well overdone. So the question is whether Jefferies have indeed treated it the way he's suggested. Well this seems to back up the assertion hxxps://www.oedigital.com/news/496895-uk-north-sea-oil-producers-see-shares-drop-after-windfall-tax-news

I recall reading STT's rants and "red flags" a year ago, and longer ago, the SP at the time was circa £2.26. I investigated, researched and decided to invest despite the grave warnings of imminent collapse. Now at circa £7.00, we have continuously had the same rants with new or the same red flags. And now I know the adtec world and TRMR much better and believe the TRMR is a better investment today than it was a year ago, and will IMHO be circa £12.00 very soon, based on real world facts and understanding. DYOR.

Just to provide some context on what to expect over the next few days. On the 24 March 21, after both having completed their Q1 results, Perion’s share price stood at 17.38 USD, and TRMR’s was 7.52 UKP. Perion is now at 30 USD; TRMR needs to be 12.98 UKP to maintain the same percentage increase. I think that’s more than achievable as TRMR has all the advantages including: video and CTV growth, and the full stack leading to industry leading margins.

STT just like - TRMR Q1 trading update on 25th May 21 – was stellar and bullish and directly led to the shares ATH; it stated amongst other things: adjusted EBITDA increased 4,935% to $27.5 million (Q1 2020: $0.5 million. Yet, days earlier, on the 18th May, the initial Alphonso case document stated amongst other things: “given the significant and ongoing harm it is suffering in light of Alphonso's wrongful conduct.” “Alphonso specifically targeted its efforts on major customers of Tremor including to try to secure Tremor's business for itself.” “Alphonso has misused Tremor's highly sensitive, confidential information Alphonso's breaches of the Agreement are causing ongoing, irreparable harm to Tremor, for which monetary damages are insufficient.”

There's a company - Perion - which has 1. slower growth rates 2. only 20% of revenue in CTV and video 3.has high dependence on a single client relationship 4.is trying to move to CTV and video which has significantly higher growth 5.has significantly lower margin, and significantly lower net revenue, etc, etc. And in the past month has gone up 70% - whilst TRMR is flat. I've spent days refreshing my research notes on all the adtecs, and tech advertising companies and TRMR is still my biggest investment. Any thoughts on how high it will get post Q3 results?