Member Info for jonhas

One question I find intriguing is why the 9.50 UKP figure was disclosed this time around, a year later. Not an accidental addition I suspect. If a party was attempting to ensure a low offer wasn't accepted then they may disclose this figure at this point; I don't see another reason for trotting this gem out now. If this is the case then it informs us that party(s) are indeed putting forward numbers and we may be closer than on previous occasions. I for one believe this is a terrible time for a sale, at least it is for PIs; as I have taken a very different view to most regarding the Q4 results and outlook.

Hi TroytoTiber

I appreciate your updates on a generally neglected share. I bought back in early 2021 and the lack of news-flow has tested my patience at times. However the fundamentals and promise still look as good now as when I first bought. Fair to say my other oil/gas shares have generally performed better over the past year but I'm holding out for the pipeline and the clear articulation of the expansion plans.

Last year the Q4 announcement was on the 10/02 and results on 24/02. So from tomorrow, two weeks later.
Unless the announcement is late but the results don't follow the 2 week gap then we are going to be well out of sync with the other players - unusually so even for TRMR.
Could they be delaying to coincide with an important announcement, there are no shortage of possibilities at present:
1. I'm sure we can have a more than educated guess on the providence of the Rebekah Brooks story linked with a potential sale facilitated by Goldman Sachs back in Dec. It's still ongoing presumably.
2. LG settlement.
3. Big deal with one of the tier one CTV content providers.
4. Re-branding details - but that was meant to be mid year.

Is an announcement a possible reason for holding back results? I don't think Amobee is the reason, as they integrated Amobee results in Q3 without being particularly late.

Hi Gdog, last year the announcement was on the 10/02 and results on 24/02.
So a week later and counting.
We are normally last(ish) but often still around the same time as the others however this time there's going to be a gap, unless the announcement is late but the results don't follow the 2 week gap.

The other aspect to this is that the Q3 results were held on the 14-11-22, with the Q4 guidance changed so they had 6 weeks of Q4 numbers by the time guidance changed - and you would think they also had good sight of at least the next couple of weeks so 8 weeks of the 12 should have been either known, or pretty well known. I guess you know where I'm going with that track.

The reason I didn't invest in perion significantly a couple years ago was because of the contractual dependence it had with Microsoft, ironically this side of its business seems to have done well during this time. The question is whether Bing 's coming success will help or hinder Perion. There is little doubt in my mind that Bing will a significant increase in market share with chatgpt integrated, however this will bring significant and renewed focus on Bing from Microsoft. Could this new scrutiny make Microsoft reconsider perions role? It's possible, no, as Bing stops being a relative failure and success brings greater revenue and hence a rethink from Microsoft?

Gdog, nice to have an idea of your investments and hence your thinking. We share many of the same however although trmr is my largest, the others in my adtech portfolio are significantly smaller. However I'm awaiting an appropriate time to transition out of my oil companies into more adtec. I think we are close; don't want to leave it too late however too early might prove expensive too.

Rubbish, yes, but 45% growth is sure likely to excite. Especially as the majority later in the year should be from ctv. The only sizeable Adtec, that I'm aware of that will be generating the majority of sales thru ctv. The S P zoomed when Unruly figures kicked in last time so fingers crossed it happens again.

Gdog,
You ask: about PERI"s growth number looking anemic vs TRMR. How do you get there? I get TRMR growth, Pro-forma, of ca. 9.5%.
If by pro-forma you mean in this case, like for like (excluding Amobee) then yes PERI's might look okay'ish - perhaps. Although 14% growth would represent a significant step down and given the valuation on fundamentals, compared to TRMR, then with your suggested 9.5% for TRMR then I'd argue it would be appear overvalued in comparison. However that is to miss the point which is that Tremor will present its increased Amobee revenue as growth; just as it did with Unruly. And although some may discern the difference, come later in the year I believe the general market will not - circa 40% growth is what will be quoted and accepted. Now if they can add some organic growth to that then so much the better; and they should be able to with: circa 40% of revenue coming from CTV, and the cross selling possibilities that Amobee provides to Unruly and vice versa.
Of course the above is all premised on them at least keeping Amobee's and TRMR's existing sales. And I accept that credibility on delivering their guidance needs to be rebuilt.

Gdog, what did you make of Peri's guidance of 14%?
If (perhaps a big if) TRMR meets its current forward guidance then the 14% will look anemic in comparison. Yet PERI's valuation is comparatively high in comparison, in no small part due to the significantly better growth in the past year. Interesting to see how the two fair in the next year; your thoughts?

hxxps://www.gartner.com/reviews/market/ad-tech/compare/product/amobee-vs-the-trade-desk
Ever since the acquisition I've liked the fact that Amobee, unlike Tremor appears as a leader on the radar of industry analysts, it also appears on competitor slides such as Trade Desk, etc. Although not ahead of TTD, it never appears far behind (and in the link, I believe the number of responses are telling when compared to Viant say) and of course Tremor is more than just Amobee. It makes me think that Amobee perhaps gives Tremor the potential to compete in the DSP market significantly better than previously. We will have to wait and see but perhaps the pieces of the jigsaw are really coming together to create something really significant in the CTV market.

I'd not see the logic for TRMR to be taken over or merged with PERI at this juncture. PERI has had an exceptionally good rise in the past 18 months and TRMR the inverse but the next 18 months may well see an altogether different script. I see the logic from a PERI perspective - CTV, Amobee, Unruly, etc - great positioning - but TRMR has a depressed share price and may well have a comparative stellar year or two.

Radium, I would concur that I don't see a merger as in any way likely. Although I do see some others occurring in the sector.
I've not invested as significantly in Perion as Tremor, and the search revenue aspect was the main issue for me. Obviously Perion's been the better investment in the last two years but I still holding out for a Tremor revival. One thing to throw into the ring for the Perion/Microsoft linkup is the recent Microsoft OpenAI investment. As I understand it an important aspect of the investment is linked to the Bing search and AI. So Microsoft may be heading down a new technology path.

Gdog, what did you conclude from your recent look over that caused the conversion to a fan of Ofer, and change of mind on Tremor? After the last set of results I believe we had an exchange and although admittedly disappointing; I did see a glimmer with the continued 45% growth of CTV now being circa 40% of the total, and also the Amobee acquisition may provide a reliable route to circa 50% growth this year - integration has been done successfully before. Personally I can see many other positives, just intrigued by what caused the optimism for you.

gdog, regarding government action you are correct, its years away however Google will moderate behavior to try and avoid action way way before this and that's probably already happening, just as Microsoft did when it was threatened. How much this will help Tremor I'm not sure.

Just voted no with 41,000 shares for many of the reasons already cited on this board. The strongest factor for me is that the North Sea is presently a place to be avoided, and SQZ should have diversified away with any deal, either that or failing that simply run the company and passed on the continued profits to s/hs. However my question is, can anyone provide any reasoned insight into what Hardy's are likely to be motivated by? For example, status quo with no deal could easily provide significant returns from the current level with a significant reduction in overall risk. The deal, even if it could be justified has significant risks - tax, Labour, oil price, etc. A no deal provides a predictable return and exit route for a shareholder with a very big stake. So any thoughts?

Funny you should mention that software development is where I started out.
But I've not seen the interfaces in detail so just like you relying on industry reports.
However I do believe that pieces of the puzzle may be coming together for TRMR. Its a shame that Ofer is the front-man but I guess if he wasn't then the SP would be much higher. I still hope that one of two of Amobee management might come into the exec team.

Jr, I assume you meant Tremor - in which case I wasn't able to see any updated news that commented on guidance. Were you? I think it was just a misunderstanding on my reading of Radium's notes regarding Amobee.

Gdog, regarding the discussion of Amobee DSP vs TTD.

Firstly, my original point was that Amobee is a big step forward for TRMR as a DSP and DMP. It appears in the mix when reviews take place and findings are positive, this is more than TRMR's did. Precisely how comparable it is to TTD is another matter. You made a point about TTD being far more successful and therefore their DSP must be much better, well perhaps but Betamax was technically superior to VHS in almost every way but the technical dimension is not always instrumental. The more important question is how far does the combined Amobee and TRMR offerings go to close the gap? Well from what I read, many of the past issues of TRMR's DSP/DMP offering may well be addressed.

For me whilst the above is important, as I previously wrote what is perhaps strategically key, is that we can assume that by mid next year over 50% of TRMR's spend (excl. Amobee) will be CTV - which has been growing at 45%. We are the (or close to being) the most exposed to CTV growth which is projected to be industry changing during the next 2-3 years. Should this come to pass then I believe the re-rate on the SP is very likely for this reason alone.

Radium, in a recent post regarding Amobee, I believe you mentioned that Amobee/TRMR had re-iterated Q4 guidance. I followed the links you provided but could not find anything regarding guidance. Interesting though it was, do you recall where guidance was mentioned? Or did I interpret incorrectly.

50% plus of the biz will be growing at 45%. Once CTV becomes the biggest chunk of the biz then overall growth has a good chance to develop. Remember this quarter, the performance part of the biz was down circa 40% and Q4 is projected likewise. Lose those types of anchors and shift the majority to CTV and we have a chance of taking off (relatively speaking).

Finally, on the subject of growth. Amobee's numbers will be presented as TRMRs from now on. Just as Unruly's were. This means that headline numbers should look good and comparisons favourable.

So for me its whether to add to my holding or stick for the moment. The valuation is so low and TRMR is in CTV which everyone agrees is a great place to be, it will almost certainly show decent growth next year because of Amobee. Integration is vital now and this is the one thing that mgr have displayed as a past strength.

Radium, interesting set of posts. Firstly I'd also like to thank SNN for his past insights. I read his last posts with some sadness and as usual with particular interest. I like most have been disappointed with the last two quarter results however I don't share the same despondence that others have presently. Its strange that many of the
facts/observations that SNN made in his last posts echo my own however my conclusions from those same points are largely positive rather than terminally negative.

So ...
-the slowdown and contraction being caused significantly by BTC. This has been echoed by other competitors. Although its unfortunate that it's impacting TRMR so significantly, I am somewhat relieved to know that this is not a TRMR self-induced headache and as such can be resolved in time. Specific sectors and verticals will have ups and downs, that's
life and whilst its far from ideal that TRMR is not sufficiently balanced from a client perspective, its something they can work on and of course this is partly why Amobee is important.

-Amobee acquisition: Radium you have stated most of what I have also concluded. However a couple of points to add.
Firstly, whenever you see relevant articles from any of the leading industry sources, Amobee will be detailed as a leader in the DSP and DMP spaces. Not TRMR but Amobee. To re-iterate, every source whether its competitor provided like TTD and Viant, or industry independent brokers like Gartner and Forester; Amobee is listed as a leader of some description. The ratings are normally lower than TTD but broadly comparable - DMP, programmatic and self-service are key. So Amobee should make TRMR competitive in those spaces just as Unruly did as a SSP.

Secondly, Amobee offers TRMR, new and increased DSP and DMP capabilities but it also offers TRMR a new set of clients to sell CTV into. So if it currently has limited CTV sales then this offers potential to TRMR for further CTV expansion.

Thirdly, the fact that Amobee has already been detailed as being rather inefficient, is again in my mind a big positive. TRMR management have identified an issue, and are probably well placed to rectify. This capability is perhaps a strength that they have demonstrated previously, successful integration of an inefficient loss making enterprise - Unruly.
The reversal of Amobee's fortunes and its successful integration is key to TRMRs short to medium term success.

Now Radium, much of the above is along the same lines as your own thoughts however there is one area that has not been highlighted which I see as absolutely key.
CTV as a percentage of spend in Q3 is 39% and 44% of programmatic. And grew at 45% which is fairly consistent growth for multiple quarters even in the two past two. Its doing pretty well. We can assume that by mid next year over 50% will be CTV - excluding Amobee for the moment. cont.