Member Info for jonhas

GG - I think we both know that the SP of a company can be determined by a small number of trades at times. The SP is the lowest price that someone is willing to accept for 1 or more shares at a given time - that's why some sold shell at £9 a couple years ago- I think that answers that one.

II can hold counter positions however unless they are active shorters - they are simply insuring against possible future loss. This does not provide any explanation to why they would seek to invest 10s of millions into a company if they had any doubts, or why II would not be able avoid a fundamentally unsound company. Good try.

GG seems to be having some fun at some PIs expense.

He recently wrote: Ask yourselves this one question.

Are we smarter than the whole market, and see what the rest of the world doesn't, namely this is a fantastic company ...

Sounds reasonable, lets try another. Are some of us smarter than a relatively select few PIs that are being scared into selling, probably by shorters that are making on their fear? I don't see any institutions sales - just PIs. Funny that, I thought it was normally the institutions that were better informed. This recent SP recent fall - who has sold and how many shares?

Or another question - are the financial intuitions that invested £134.9m in the equity raise six months ago at a SP of £1.05 after full disclosure and due diligence really that easy to fool, after all the rigor needed to invest 10s of millions they fell for a floored financial model that has been the same for years - yes well perhaps not.

I said a little while back I'd post some info on the recent Forrester report when I got a moment:

Some good news from my perspective was that Amobee is mid-placed in the strong performers category along with 5 others, the leaders being TTD, AMZN and Google. I was keen to see confirmation from an authoritve source that it was still well regarded, as the last report I had seen was a couple years old from Gartner. However potentially the better news was within the detail of the of the Amobee review as it basically concluded that it excels at every stage of the TV investment cycle, and one quote was "a specialized DSP for TV" rather than an omnichannel juggernaut - and is best for for heavy TV buyers. Although the conclusion points to weaknesses outside TV, I think given the size of the CTV/ linear TV opportunity, its not a bad position to be in strategically and preferable to others that are perhaps more omnichannel capable but excel at nothing. At least there's a solid reason to go with TRMR given a focus on TV. Here's hoping that TRMR can use these capabilities to build on the near term CTV/linear opportunities and build out the capabilities for the other channels in time.

Radium, I concur with your thoughts on Amobee and Forrester have their wave report recently published on DSPs that provide some interesting insights into Amobee and its competitors. When I get a chance I'll include a few of their conclusions but suffice to say it's positive.

Fine thanks Gdog, apart from busy, I trust you are also?

Well, I've been through each of the call transcripts for all of them, some more than once and I believe things are looking okay for TRMR. Its a somewhat complex picture and not simply a macro environment story. Whether TRMR surprise on the negative side is still possible of course but the FD was confident in the last call and that was well into the quarter so fingers crossed. The outlook will of course be the key to sentiment but Viant managed to be positive and I've seen correlation between the two before so ...

Hi Radium, replies to your points below.

1. I believe we do have a good idea of Mediamath's impact on TRMR - a list of creditors with amounts owed was posted at the time and from memory whilst Magnite and Pubm were number one and two, TRMR with Unruly were well down the list at approx. 1M USD.

2. I believe the theme is more nuanced than simply increased media with reduced ad spend. Hence the mixed results - with Viant and TTD both having reasonable results and outlooks. So, Magnite described reduced or pulled upfront being replaced by a push for programmatic - and Magnite have a higher proportion of upfront than programmatic so this impact was more significant for them. TRMR are the reverse.

We should remember that the confidence that TRMR expressed on Q2 during the Q1 call was, in my opinion, of a different order than we'd heard before. The challenges from the brokers were met with real confidence - and opportunities to row back from targets were rebuked.

Gdog - did you get a chance to review the outputs?

Its certainly an interesting time for reflection and analysis. Quite a few theories of going around, I noticed that Laura from Needham raised the SSP vs DSP as one explanation of why both PUBM and MGNI got slated. Personally, my confidence for TRMR going into this earnings is not shaken from what I've seen.

Gdog, it wasn't just guidance - they didn't have good quarters, in the case of MGNI and PUBM, they pushed Mediamath as one excuse, and the macro environment was also not seen as conducive.

Then we had DSP, PERI and TTD which had better quarters. TTD was arguably always going to have a SP fall whatever it did, as its arguably priced for perfection presently. Neither, TTD or PERI have had any correlation with TRMR in the recent past however DSP has, I believe, the closest correlation to TRMR in the past 18 months or so. Pretty much the two have been providing similar views of the macro ad environment over that period so interesting for DSP to be rather more positive in its latest earnings.

Gdog, you mentioned on a previous post that you didn't hear anything on the conference call that was particularly new. I know you are thorough so I was intrigued. I concluded almost the opposite. Sure its not certain and is still cloudy - but when did we last hear a figure presented to the CFO (two thirds thru the quarter) which by implication he confirmed they were on target for - okay the above was not clear cut but still its not something I've come across in countless calls previously - have you? The CFO didn't attempt to temper expectations even with analyst encouragement - 40-60 split would have been easy to agree and would soften Q2 expectations with but he mentioned a 45 - 55 as another possibility.

Even more interestingly is that if they meet the 92.4m then the 400m is perhaps more than achievable. And whilst TRMR is down 37% in the 52 weeks, PUBM is down 11% and TTD is up 35%.; yet there would be a strong case that TRMR would at 400m have had the best year assuming the others perform as guided.

Yes, we've been disappointed previously but I think its important not to be swayed unduly by the past particularly. I know you've been buying in the recent past and see many of same things as I do so just interested to know what turned you off from concluding the same this time.

Arthur, TRMR has certainly tested our patience at times however this may turn out to be beneficial. I've been buying for the last few months and right down at the 2GBP low. Should the recovery happen in the next quarters results then the potential for a serious re-rate is good. Although now it would have been nice to have seen a straight line up or even a level one, at some point in the future I may look back and consider it lucky that I had the opportunity to buy when it was seriously low. I'm hoping that the patience will pay out in the future.

The Q & A from the conf. call was most interesting. Couple of bits worth consideration. When the CFO was asked about the broker consensus of 92m for Q2, he was given plenty of space (perhaps encouragement) to row back from the 400m end of year target. Given the Q1 numbers that would have seemed sensible however ...

Some quotes include:

"we think or we assume we will go much better numbers than we did in Q1";

"No, I think we are in the line of those numbers"

"No, we are not stepping down from here"

"We are seeing the the first signs of the fruits of that hard work in the past six months"

With two thirds of Q2 over already we can assume that their grasp of Q2 is pretty good. There is a peppering of quotes in the call about ... since early March things improved, May stronger again than April.

From my notes, it was around six months after the The Unruly acquisition that we saw the SP benefits come thru. The next quarter could be very interesting if they show a turnaround. When you compare TRMR pricing fundamentals against Pubm, you realize just how undervalued TRMR is even in a lowly priced ad-tec market.

Brimach, I wasn't able to ascertain much of a timeline from the latest docs however having gone thru relevant docs for an hour or so, it did appear apparent that Alonso / LG are being made to provide documents and testimony that they have attempted to frustrate since the start so perhaps that may be a sufficient lever for them to start seeking a settlement.

So my question was - out of all the public traded ad-tecs which would be the fastest growing over a three year period in terms of % on revenue ex-TAC (or the nearest equivalent if they don't publish ex-TAC) assuming TRMR makes its potentially conservative target of 400M and TTD meets its 20%?
Adding each year of growth together for the last 2 and guided current, TRMR would beat TTD by about 0.4%. That sounds crazy when you look at their respective presentations and fundamentals. One's clearly very good at pitching its biz and the other is terrible.

Havealot, Amobee was loss making when acquired so it's going to dilute down trmr's margin during 2023. The full stack model and a focus on efficiencies should bring it back to sector leading in time.

Gdog, you wrote regarding guidance: "I think they're shooting from the hip."
I agree, however I also believe the downgrade to 400M was an attempt to regain the initiative. Consider the difference in perception and trust if they actually hit 420M having reset expectations to 400M, rather than hitting 420M with a target of 450M. The first , they will be ahead of guidance for 4 quarters and the later; missing for 4 more.
Their previous calculations had led them to expect 460m but that demands a 61% increase in programmatic ex TAC (albeit mostly coming from Amobee); they reconsidered this figure in light of their competitor's single digit increases and the recent softness. Even the 400m requires a 39% increase in programmatic. I believe, it was the comparison with their competitors, and having finally cottoned onto the game of setting expectations low and then beating them - albeit with terrible management of expectation setting at the outset.
You mentioned company fundamentals, that is a really fascinating area right now. Assume TRMR hits its 400m target, I believe it may beat it but lets stick with a hit - which two ad-tec stocks, out of all the public traded, would be the fastest growing over a three year period in terms of %, for revenue ex-TAC (or the nearest equivalent if they don't publish ex-TAC)?

I believe its fairly certain that the delisting is a cynical ploy to effectively dupe the small PIs, prior to positive news-flow which would send the SP significantly northwards. The much awaited pipeline is any time now and with that now in sight, clearly its time to significantly raise production - no point doing it previously as there would probably have been selling the increased quantity.
So what can us small PIs do about this? Well I'd like to hold on but there are hurdles to consider.
1. I need to get it out of my SIPP. I have a plan on how I can do this - anyone else in this position?
2. I'd like to get the shares into an account that is perhaps geared for this delisted share - anyone have any suggestions?
3. I'd like to obtain a share certificate but I think GEEC will not facilitate this?
4. I'd like to understand how many of us are in the same situation - and how many shares are we talking about? I have a 180,000 GDRs.

So who else is out there?

Yes, I'll let you know if I do get a response. Does anyone know any brokers that deal with OTC, my thought is to buy mine out of my SIPP. I'd do this before the deadline so they end up in a dealing account but I'd like to get a broker who will be able to handle the delisted shares.

Has anyone tried and had any luck with the email address provided in the RNS which is supposed to provide further information?

Gdog, you mention a midge of growth being desirable.
I've had some thoughts on what we may expect this year.
At 46:50 in the Q&A, the analyst asks what I believe is the most insightful question. The question is why change guidance?
The answer given is:
a. soft Dec, Jan, and early Feb and
b. because its pro-rata +5% which is in line with guidance provided by others.
There are serious challenges with these statements and they simply cannot both be true.
When purchased Amobee revenue ex TAC were 150m, add TRMR at 300m(ish) and you have the 450m. Add the 5% organic and you move past the 460m and with some cross selling you arrive at 500m which was also announced at acquisition closing. These considerations, I believe were the basis for the original estimates and they at least had some logic.
Ofer and co. again re-iterated pro-rata plus 5% in 2023 on the call. This is in line with Viant and Pubmatic which also expressed that softness in Q4/Q1 but they also forecast 3.5 and 8.5% growth in 23 respectively. But this isn't consistent with the the 400m new guidance.
My take: the new guidance is NOT linked to a sound method of calculation as their previous guidance was. I have found a mathematical means to get to 400m. If you take 2022 Q1 and Q2 figures and apply to them the % change in programmatic and performance which occurred in Q4 23, then you will get to 42% (the H1/H2 spilt also mentioned in the call) of the 400m.
So in summary, they are taking the softness in Dec and Jan and applying it across the year which is NOT the pro-rata +5% which they also claim.
Before I move on ... what's your thoughts on the above logic?

Gdog, you are not alone in doubling down on this investment, nor the only one that has been poring over all the recordings, slides, and broker thinking. There seems to be some pretty key things that don't seem to be getting the attention they would appear to deserve - often I feel like I'm in a very exclusive club in seeing these.
The extent of current SP weakness isn't rational in my mind and perhaps makes this a real stand out opportunity; in a market where there seems to be a lot of very good opportunities if you know where to look.
Is CTV growth the main driver behind your thinking?
Jon.