Member Info for johnpwh

I don't often post here. Clearly this is a complex situation, with plenty of ifs and buts remaining. Newmont want rid of Hav and Telfor (which are clearly natural bedfellows), but they were also 70% owners of Hav and 100% owner of Telfor so in the driving seat. That creates uncertainty, and apparent delays in construction and the future was weighing heavily on GGP shares. I don't know what will happen here, and with respect no one else here does either. Strong gold and the more certain future could imply a SP rise. Newmont could have sat on Hav for years until we capitulated and gave up our 30% for a song. Equally placings are normally at a discount which in the short term at least could imply a drop. We don't know. Simple fact is that PIs like us wont have a real say in the matter so we are kind of passengers in my view. Lets hope PoG continues at $2500 or strengthens further and its an enjoyable ride. Good luck all.

I know Stranger. At the depths and grades so far nothing found appears to be economic. I wish they would focus on Salinbas/ Ardala and really make efforts to show a real pathway to production there with concrete timescales.

Also decide what is intended in Cyprus. Grow some backbone and take over Venus or write the investment off and move on, its a distraction.

Hi Van

Will read over on the dark side!

The structure simplification is whatever it is. No doubt incurred a fair amount of professional fees of one sort or another! I cant see otherwise there is any difference which would lead to any variation in SP due to that news.

I know I have a bit of a downer on it but since we are nearly in the 9th month of the calendar year I suspect that the heap leach is delayed beyond that promised or it would surely have been highlighted? That I can cope with as long as it happens early 2025, especially now gold is looking reasonably stable at around $2500 so increasing margins. If there is another 'hard winter' I fear that full production at Tavsan would possible slip further into 2025, especially as I am guessing that the road infrastructure may not be that best round and there may be affected.

As you say, the second half is likely to be stronger as the trucking, and its ramping up, is a relatively recent thing. Whether it has further to ramp beyond 50 trucks a day is another possibility, and also what proportion of Tavsan material is of a quality that trucking is financially viable? There is so many questions with this company, which leads to endless debate on these boards.

Good to hear from you.

Shortarm

Odd structure to that RNS, I didn't know any further reorganisation of interests was needed, bet no one else did either. Would like to have seen the production figure given its own RNS, seems the headline is being use to drop the production figure as an afterthought. But it is what it is. What figure were you expecting/ hoping for?

I am pleased to see the 50 trucks a day, sounds good but I suspect that 40 tonnes per truck is optimistic unless I have missed that figure somewhere, more like 10-20 tonnes per truck but useful all the same. 3 grams (say) per tonne, 200 days a year, 31 grams per Troy ounce, its a decent contribution. I've made assumptions there because 50 trucks a day doesn't come close to telling us the information to assess the true impact. That is typical Ariana of recent years, obfuscation.

What I don't get is that there seems no excited talk of the main Tavsan operation. All we have in Seners statement is 'significant progress at Tavsan'. It was supposed to be in production now, so implies yet another time slippage. You can call me a pessimist, in fact you can call me what you like, but that was buried. The heap leach operation seems delayed yet again, probably to 2025, barely mentioned in an excited RNS about a reorganisation we didn't know we needed. We read between the lines as usual.

Just an opinion, the trucking only started recently.. We'll.see when the figures are out, let's revisit this conversation then..

I don't think desperately exciting, the existing pits are running down and the Tavsan operation yet to start except for the little ore that has been trucked. But at 3 or 4 grams per ton an 31 grams per Troy ounce I cant see that Tavsan ore processed at Kiziltepe will make for an astonishing and unexpected result!

Have read the replies with great interest, this is one of the most educated boards I have been on.

Thanks

John

Milnrowmug

As a customer and shareholder I find more to like as a customer than as a shareholder, but let that pass.

Sir Tim is a proper character, and shall we say getting more interesting by the week. He is Chairman now and hope that means he is hands off the day to day running, leaving that to John Hutson. With free rein I have no doubt the ceo could increase profits, but that is an opinion.

As a ex investor but now non investor I will give my thoughts and hope I don't annoy anyone too much. I look at ALL every single day because this project seems advanced and frankly as good as any. But everyday I look at the lithium price and see it is unchanged or down. Everyday I see news reports about the EV future being resisted by consumers or seen as a stop gap solution before a hydrogen economy takes over. Conversely lithium is needed, and many higher cost projects will collapse which should strangle the supply side and lead to a commodity price rise. So I sit on the fence, and I'm sure there are very many the same as me. Until those fence sitters see some positives they will.... just sit there, and until new buyers flex their wallets the SP will probably stagnate. Just my thoughts so no hate mail please.

Inexplicable drop today?

I see your point both, but surely it would suit shareholders more to offer slightly less discount but to commence regular dividends, even if in the 1% - 2% range. JDW has a history of paying dividends but those ceased over 4 years ago. That's fine if the capital value of the shares is increasing due to net assets increasing. However not only have no dividends been paid for 4 years but the share price has halved! This despite every branch you ever go into heaving with customers from 8 in the morning to chucking out time. Halving that 20% to 30% disparity with the competition should have a massive effect on the bottom line. At the end of the day its a business, and a very good one, not a charity.

Got my timing wrong this time, well out of the money with my latest purchase on Friday!

I am still hopeful on what may turn out to be a long term holding. JDW seems to be in an enviable position, multiple outlets in often small areas meaning they can use their own footfall and average spend data to cull the weakest branches as and when leases come up for renewal. I hardly ever 'drink' at Weatherspoons even though I do occasionally, I'm more a full English and multiple coffee sort of bloke. I have have noticed a raising of prices recently, good with my shareholder hat on if not as a consumer. I think that needs to continue. There is little point in being 30% cheaper than other city centre hospitality, there would probably be little drop off in trade if that were reduced to say 10-15%. Of course there would be a huge boost for shareholders here if there were a return to dividend payments, not only from the payments themselves but because it would make the shares more attractive to a bigger catchment of individual shareholder and funds. Anyone agree with my nonsense, it seems a quiet board and would love to hear opinion.

Think I will answer my own question. Both.

Simply in line with FTSE250 or because of fear that the thuggery in city centres will affect hospitality?

Never come across it van. Would be fascinated to know why you want to!

:-)

Believe what you like MPO818, don't let the truth get in the way.

Labour has not cut interest rates. The Bank of England has cut interest rates. They are independent.

Thanks meoryou.

I'll carry on for another few years! The dividend is good considering interest rates on deposits are likely to decline sharply.

Furthermore my (discredited) logic tells me that after a period of underperformance vs its most obvious peer there is no certainty that it will continue into the future. The opposite in fact.

I don't feel the same about GSK though, the Zantac legislation is likely to continue damaging it for years to come now that the blood sucking no win no fee lawyers have got their teeth into it.

Thanks for the reassurance, maybe I need to buy more!!

A few years ago, cant remember when but after the Gulf of Mexico, I decided to go long with a substantial lump in an oil major and a big pharma.

So I sat myself down with a comforting drink and packet of choccy biccies and decided between BP and Shell, GSK or AstraZeneca.

I chose BP and GSK. Hence the title of my post.