RE: Dokwe18 Jun 2024 11:17
C&B I am not quite as cynical about Zimbabwe, that country was obviously Southern Rhodesia, Rhodesia being a prolific source of minerals. In the Mugabe years I would have been very worried. But there are signs that after that tyrant the country is emerging and wants to integrate on the world stage. Now could be just the time to invest there while valuations are low due to their fairly recent history. There is no doubt however that the risk profile of AAU has changed to be far riskier, but then post the giveaway JV it was going nowhere so something had to happen. I do have a significant chunk of my kids inheritance here and am concerned that if that were wiped out I would be letting them down. I will be looking to reduce my exposure here but FOMO will prevent me from exiting completely as I do think Zimbabwe has dramatic potential unlike Salinbas which looks further away every year.
Salinbas attracted me here initially (along with posts by dicfromrugby on ii, some may remember his wonderful interesting take on the English language), but Salinbas seems a damp squib, and a half forgotten one at that. Ariana has lost control of their Turkish assets and are in no position to confirm dividends will ever be received from Tavsan. At the moment I believe that it we receive dividends from Tavsan they will be nominal, and that yesterdays presentation reinforced my view. How can they when Ozaltin hold 53% and will want to redirect surplus to develop Salibas with as little debt as possible, as has happened at Tavsan funded by the remaining income from the Kiziltepe area?
And what did AAU receive from ceding 76.5% of Salinbas to the new JV? $5m plus I believe an amount from Proccea of maybe $2.5m though I find that figure hard to find and and $2m ftowards as drilling campaign, Typo you say, it wasn't $2m for drilling from Ozaltin it was $8m!! Nope. As part of a JV with a 23.5% share AAU would have been liable for (slightly less than) $2m of an $8m campaign, and so it is only that sub $2m amount that AAU effectively received in respect of the drilling campaign. AAU gave away far, far more in 'special' dividends than they received for 76.5% of their prized asset. To add insult to injury they then sweetened the deal by losing half of their interest in W Turkey for a relative pittance just as the Kiziltepe plant was paid for , debt free and throwing off lots of net cash that AAU at the time had a 50% share of.
Reading between the lines I think the BoD have now seen this though naturally they wont come clean and admit it. ( I did write to Dr Sener at the time expressing my views which he did reply to while naturally following the boards guidance) . Hence maybe the aim to retain 100% of Dokwe expressed yesterday.
I can forgive Dr Sener who was still then young and focussed on his geological brilliance rather than having extensive business experience. But the Chairman was an experienced, seasoned ex FD of several mining companies and I hold him total respons