Member Info for JohnLewis79

Well as someone once said " there's nowt so queer as Indian folk" Not settling with PAT will turn out to be a dreadful mistake. I see no advantage for them to be so bloody minded as to carry on a lost cause.

Their stupidity knows no bounds when an amicable agreement with PAT would have seen Bhukia in time provide jobs and money for the hard pressed Rajasthan peoples. Mind you i doubt the GOR are much bothered about them.

So be it, their loss our gain. We're in the driving seat as time will surely show.

Wtf is going on? I'm sure I didn't post

the comment yesterday at 14:55pm and use 'becassaty' or Mr Bell and advisors! It's phraseology I do not recognise! Anyone any ideas?

A failed attempt to climb off days low (1060) at its worst point and lowest level in 3 months saw traders digesting Fed Chair Powell's comments that rates are going to stay higher in 2024. Some crazies call for 7% rates to kill off stubbornly high inflation once and for all.

Despite inflation at 3% close to the 2% target in some books, mrkts took the be "safe not sorry" route dumping stocks across the board. Equities are almost through the worst month of the year for stocks heading into the most volatile month of the year for stocks. Even if you take out the Oct'29 & Oct'87 nos October statistically remains the most volatile.

Mega caps and FAANGs suffered losses between 0•9% and 3•0% with Amazon extending its recent decline after the US Fed Trade commission slapped a antitrust lawsuit on the company. Stock fell $5 to $126.

Meta paid $149m to hand the keys back on a London property it had leased from British Land but never moved in. I guess when the stock is up 140% this year it don't matter very much. It's thought the lease has 18 years to run. Stock down $2 at $299.

All 11 S&P sectors were in the dumps led by Utilities off 12% the major laggard this year. On the NYSE decliners outpaced advances by 3•75:1 posting just 1 new 52 high and 34 new lows. On the DJ 30 only 2 stocks gained (Amgen & Travelers) while Apple propped up the fallers down $4 to $172.

DJ -388 (33,619)

SP -64 (4274)

NS -223 (14,546)

R2 -17 (1134)

WTI $91

10ytb 4•518%

MSCI(W) -35 (2845)

Gold Bugs -7 (214)

Latest:- Vix 19. Brent $93.

Gold $1887. Copper $3•646.

Palm $950. Silver $23•045.

$1•214. €1•149.

FF-10. DF+75.

Morning all.

Save your breath!

11,000,000 traded feel sure the jobbers will take the sp down to the 10+ level or as near to scare off over enthusiastic buyers who don't really know whats occurring. They will be easy meat for skinning.

It's way to opaque for me to comment on majority holders intentions regarding their holdings outside they must take into account the minority holders. I think we're ways away from any announcement which will have to be argued very carefully given the interested parties.

Mr Bell and advisors will have any succession in hand should it be becessaty

Look at the pathetic state of the ftse over the last 5 years barely a measely 1% gain! Talk about the sick man of Europe its been staring us in the face for years.

Compare that to the S&P which is up just short of 50% over the same period and where getting people back into work takes priority over box ticking and inclusion quotas. No wonder many UK companies are heading across the pond to sell their wares to investors who understand the mechanics of risk, volume, profits, earnings, returns and value.

Obviously it won't suit all, especially small Aim companies need not apply.

However there are cheaper entry points on the OTC exchanges for those willing to make the effort and can afford the costs.

I doubt MSi would be a candidate, mainly as they have had a quote in London since 1988 and are part of the furniture. Outside of a bid I don't expect any change in our status.

Morning atrm2. I agree the wide spread can be off putting to short-term traders who are only concerned with turning a coin. Handicapped by 10% spread, commission rates and low volumes its not a prospect that would tempt me into chancing my arm.

The average holding period for stocks now is down to just over 5 months (NYSE data) thanks in the main to auto trading. Go back to the 1950s the average investor held for 8 years. Riding out inevitable downswings is my preferred method as it smooths out sp volatility. WB called it his "Forever" holdings. Cynics say that's a 'short term' hold gone wrong.

I once held a stock for 20 years (too long a story) before I made a profit. At my time of life jumping in and out of stocks is a no-no. I have a 3-5 year view on MSi if I live that long or as I prefer to say I've bought to the "sleep well at night level."

DJ +43 (34,007)

SP +17 (4337)

NS +68 (14,769)

R2 +5 (1152)

WTI $89

10ytb 4•551%

MSCI(W) u/c (2880)

Gold Bugs -2 (221)

Latest:- Vix 17. Brent $91.

Gold $1915. Copper $3•671.

Palm $945. Silver $23•220.

$1•220. €1•153.

FF-5. DF-110.

Investors sat on their hands for most of the session as stocks rose and fell across the gain line with lttle to encourage them. Amazon stood out after agreeing to invest $4bn in Anthropic an AI start up to compete with cloud rivalsl Nvidia etc. Stock closed at $131 for a 53% gain ytd.

Treasury yields remain at near 20 year highs providing a competitive option to cash, the 10yr hit 4•55% yesterday. Among stocks energy led the 500s and FAANGs inched up while defensives lagged.

On the 30 board where rising companies were evenly split with losing ones (16:14) Dow inc (51$) led the way while 3M ($95) was the big faller.

On the NYSE losing stocks outpaced gainers by 1•2:1 on 9bn shares changing hands. There were 52 new highs and 341 new lows recorded on the day.

Morning all.

Wk 39 saw the benchmark Nikkei 225 closing the morning session up 205 points snapping a 4 day 1100 points losing streak. Shares regained their poise during the pm session on back of mrkt heavyweight Softbank rising over 2% and gains in Autos and the tech space boosting shaky sentiment.

Elsewhere HK and Shanghai are sold off on weak properties as Evergrande's knock on liquidation risks rise. The shares at a low of 0•40HKD are down 25% this morning dragging down other mainland Chinese developers. Many overseas money managers think Chinese property is uninvestible.

Years ago I did very well in HK Land but that was in the days of turbo prop aeroplanes and P&O liners taking c.40 days to reach HK via Ceylon and Singapore.

The clock is ticking as on Oct 30 Evergrande faces a winding up petition in a HK court which could potentially force the company into liquidation. Several other Chinese developers are contending with winding up orders. Such petitions can potentially force a court order liquidation.

Pacificas start the week in the red and across the ASX200 stocks are all heading lower as oils, minerals, banks and techs are shunned by investors. Towards close the ASX is off days 7023 low.

Latest:- Vix 17. Brent $92.

Gold $1924. Copper $3•694.

Palm $945. Silver $23•770.

$1•224. €1•149.

FF -26. DF +80

Morning all.

How long do you think it would take you to double your money if you were getting 4% interest on your money? Eight years, ten years or maybe twenty? Actually it's 18 years so your probably already looking elsewhere for a better deal.

If you use the classic rule of 72 you can soon estimate how long it will take you to double your money. In the above example you divide 72 by 4% which gives you 18 long years to double.

You might try a more accurate logarithmic equation (the natural log of 2 ÷ by the natural log of 1).....well perhaps not as there's not a huge difference and who can be bothered?

Historically the S&P has averaged 11•5% return since 1928 which would take you just over 6 years to double your money. Leaving it in a savings account (0•6%), we'll you'd be long dead before cashing out.

It's a fact that the S&P has doubled around 10 X since 1949 through recessions and bull mrkts illustrating the power of long'term investing.

In real terms if you take inflation into account an investor would lose money as historically inflation has averaged 3•3% over the last 100 years.

So how do different asset classes differ? Here's just 2. If you had Invested $100 in Real Estate over the 1928 to 2022 period you would have accumulated $5,120. By contrast $100 invested in the S&P (dividends reinvested) would now be worth over $624,000. Makes you wonder!

Morning all.

All 3 major US stock indexes closed in the red with the 500 & Nsdq posting their largest Fri to Fri drop since March as investors come to realise rates are staying higher and for longer than once thought. The 500 dipped below it's 100DMA suggesting investors have become too optimistic and over reliant on big tech.

FAANG stocks had a mixed week only Meta posting a small gain but on a 1 year performance (+107%) outshines Netflix (+62%), Google (+31%), Apple (+15%) & Amazon (+10%).

Stock chatter included Activision Blizzard ($94) adding 2% following Britain's anti trust regulator clearing the decks for Msofts long running $69bn bid for the company.

Striking United Auto workers walked out of 38 GM plants in 20 States as talks stalled, adding to a long list of challenges looming over the economy. Among which a possible Govt shutdown and the upcoming resumption of student loans repayments.

DJ -106 (33,964)

SP -10 (4320)

NS +7 (14,701)

R2 -4 (1146)

WTI $90

10ytb 4•440%

MSCI(W) -6 (2880)

Gold Bugs -1 (223)

Close :- Vix 17. Brent $92.

Gold $1926. Copper $3•694.

Palm $945. Silver $23•820.

$1•221. €1•150.

Yen 148•3. Yuan 7•3.

FF-30. DF+14.

One of the slowest trading weeks for a longtime. Trade deals and volume business were below average, given the economic background it was hardly surprising.

Despite the BOE keeping rates on hold the ftse lost 27 points on the week and lags the major US indexes by some margin. That left MSi shares unchanged. A steady as she goes sp is fine by me.

Wk 38

Close

-----

Sp

700-730

-------

T/vol 16,200

Buy 9,770

Sell 6,430

Buy% 60

Buy trds 25

Sell trds 11

52H 745

52L 245

---

Ytd

MSi +8%

52wk +120%

Aim -11%

Ftse 100 +3%

All Share +2%

250 -1%

Kinda expected H/Y results given the global backdrop the US excepted. A reclassified $2•8m depreciation charge resulted in reduction of gross profit was about the only item of note.

Regrettably the announcement was light on the meat and potatoes long on the jumbled financials. In commentating in the 'outlook' section there was nothing to make me take a second look. In gambling terms a very each'way report, cards held tightly to the chest.

Steady progress, challenging environment, cost pressures and geo uncertainty all standard guff investors have heard a thousand times, really?... I never knew that.

I was very bullish back in June cannot say that now. Oh well I hold in hopes but little else.

Wall slumped in a broad sell off following the 'stay' in rates which had been well flagged. US t/bill yields touched a 16 year peak knocking interest rate sensitive stocks which dragged the Nsdq to their lowest level since June.

The Fed's revised economic projections on the closely watched dot.plot chart (Fed's projections for central banks short term federal fund rates) showed rates are likely to remain elevated through next year putting more strain on the system and pressure on the economy.

An unexpected 9% drop in initial jobless claims to the lowest level in 8 months underlined the resilience in the economy to withstand higher rates for longer not what the Fed wants to see.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors fell a full 1% or more as investors baled out, real estate stocks leading the fallers. Arm Holdings closed just above their IPO offer at $51. Arm has dropped c.4% each trading day dragging down other debutants Klaviyo & Instacart.

Fox News and News Corp rose after Murdoch stepped aside from the day to day running of the businesses.

Nyse volumes were slightly above the 20 day average, nearly 11bn traded on the session. On the Dow 30 only Disney & United Health were in the black. Nike, Cat, & CISCO propped up the laggards.

DJ-370 (34,070)

SP -72 (4330)

NS -276 (14,694)

R2 -17 (1150)

WTI $90

10 y/tb 4•497%

MSCI(W) -50 (2886)

Gold Bugs -5 (224)

Latest:- Vix 18. Brent $94.

Gold $1924. Copper $3•712.

Palm $945. Silver $23•785.

$1•228. €1•152.

FF-8. DF+64

Morning all.

Fed Reserve Chair Powell warned mrkts the inflation battle was far from over commenting "investors hate..hate" inflation. As expected he was not about to rock the boat keeping rates on hold.

This hit interest sensitive megacap tech the most. In the wake of the announcement, Nvidia tumbled $15 to $420, Apple lost $4 to $175 and Msoft fell $9 to $320. On the Big Board 30, Amgen, United Health & IBM all rose more than 2%.

Powell sees another 25bp hike this year followed by 50bp of cuts next year. The Fed's Summary economic projections (SEP) forecasts inflation to drop to 3•3% by year end.

Among new stock entries Marketing Automation Co Klaviyo gained 9•3% on its NYSE debut the 3rd recent IPO to test investors appetites. ARM shares have seen persistent selling falling below its IPO price and Instacart confusingly also known as Maplebear after a solid debut dropped to $30 on day 2 of its trading life.

Volumes on NYSE were 9•73 bn traded, losers outpacing risers by 1•9:1. The Nsdq posted 39 new highs and 246 new lows while the S&P saw 14 new highs and 6 new lows.

DJ -76 (34,441)

SP -42 (4402)

NS -221 (14,970)

R2 -9 (1167)

WTI $90

10ytb 4•437%

MSCI(W) -15 (2936)

Gold Bugs +3 (229)

Latest:- Vix 15. Brent $93.

Gold $1928. Copper $3•745.

Palm $945. Silver $23•400.

$1•232. €1•158.

FF-68. DF-62.

Morning all.

British investors are not exactly spoilt for choice when choosing to invest in defense companies. Obvious exceptions include BAE Systems which have had a stellar run of late. Due in part to the pandemic slump of 2020 and subsequently the geo political risk which boosted the overview for the company. BAE stands out as a shining example.

On going tensions between the US, China and the Ukraine war will increase demand for military assets, in the first place to defend the country surely their prime responsibility and secondly to bolster the economic base in terms of jobs etc....adding to our GDP.

Companies with strong order books and I include the little known MSi who have just reported record order book numbers (more than the mrkt cap of the company).....will attract new investors to the sector. In MSI's case investors hope our profile will produce more interest in this 'big little' ( i know of corner shops valued higher) company in the years ahead.

However you need strong nerves in this sector as economic activity can reduce demand for their goods and push share prices a lot lower evidenced by BAE Slumping 400p during 2020.

Those without the will power to stay the course best seek alternative places to park their money. I will always back our military come what may, with cash when I have it, or vocally from the sidelines.

Over the period July 3 to Sept 15 2023 (10) weeks the total buy volume of MSi trades out paced sell volumes on the last 7/10 occasions. That number surprised me.

The share price over that time frame increased from 570 to 700 (23%) that number also surprised me until I noticed a one day volume driven 100p surge on 1st Sep. I like the direction of travel and look forward to the H/Y nos due in late Dec.

A reminder last years H/Y nos as at Dec 7th, 2022.

Sp 380-392

Vol 67,000

Trds 57

------

Revs £42m (£33m)

Profit £3•46m (0•77m)

Eps 17•4p (3•4p)

Cash £23m (£15•5m)

Cash 146p

Div 2p (1•75p)

Yield 4•6% (17p÷380sp)

Having started the day on a positive note Wall's major stocks lost ground going into the close. The Dow fell 107, the Nsdq off 32 and the 500 lost 10 points. Risers inc IBM,

Apple & Honeywell while Intel, Disney & Nike propped up the losers board. FAANGs were mixed but Tesla ekeed out a small gain at $226.

Investor appetite for new listings continues on a high as Instacart the California based on line grocery Co surged over 10% on its first day of trading. Just 8% of the outstanding was on offer raising $660m. The stock closed at $34 valuing the company at $9•3bn.

Crude oil hit a 10 month high raising fears a US recession might be on the horizon. History shows that surging energy costs play a role in tipping businesses into recessions, but analysts say this time round oil prices would have to hit c.$140 to trigger a potential global recession.

With zero chance the Fed will raise rates today investors can breathe easy for another month. However the 2% inflation rate remains as distant as ever while inf is bedded into the system keeping consumer spending on a tight leash.

DJ -106 (34,518)

SP -10 (4444)

NS -34 (15,191)

R2 -3 (1176)

WTI $90

10ytb 4•364%

MSCI(W) -5 (2951)

Gold Bugs -5 (226)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $93.

Gold $1930. Copper $3•747.

Palm $950. Silver $23•330.

$1•238. €1•160.

FF-16. DF-24.

Morning all.

Since Jan 2021 RNS notications to holders have been 8 in total mostly annual reports, half year results etc, stuff of most interest to holders.

However there have been 66 other RNS news items issued during the period. These have varied from weapon contract maintenance, voting rights and Director holdings all of which are important to holders.

So just because nothing lands at 7:00am keep your eyes open for the US mrkt opening for Defense related newsflow which could impact MSi or associates.