Member Info for JohnLewis79

Declining issues outpaced advances on the NYSE by 1•22:1 on a below average 9•44bn shares traded. The 500 posted 6 new 52wk highs & 11 new lows.

Energy stocks gained the most on back of rising crude prices as $100 a barrel loom last seen in mid 2020. Consumer discretionary dropped the most with Tesla ($265) down $9 weighing heaviest.

British chip maker Arm ($58) slid c.5% after several broker downgrades hit the stock with an 'underperform' rating. Apple, Visa inc and Travellers led the top 30 risers with Boeing and Amex in the dog house.

On a lacklustre session of nominal gains investors showed little conviction or desire to invest heading into the Fed's 2 day policy meet where dealers have baked in a 'stay' at 5•25-5•00% this Wed. Rate news is also due from the BOE on Thursday expected to raise •25 basis to 5•25% and the BOJ unchanged at minus 0•1% where inflation is estimated at 1•76% by year end.

Against this backdrop jitters that a stalemate on Capitol Hill could result in a potential Govt shutdown has kept investors sitting on their hands. The Govt in 2 weeks time will try to avoid a 4th possible shutdown in 10 years to keep the Fed Govt afloat.

DJ +6 (34,624)

SP +3 (4454)

NS +23 (15,225)

R2 -7 (1180)

WTI $92

10ytb 4•311%

MSCI(W) -5 (2956)

Gold Bugs +1 (230)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $95.

Gold $1932. Copper $3•764.

Palm $950. Silver $23•470.

$1•238. €1•158.

FF+4. DF-17.

Morning all.

Traders await the Fed Reserve interest rate decision due on Wed. No surprises are expected. Far Eastern mrkts are mostly lower tracking Wall St weakness on Friday. Tokyo is closed on account of Respect For The Aged Day holiday.

In HK shares of embattled Evergrande Group slumped 25% after police detained a number of staff inc the General Manager at its wealth management unit in Shenzen. It's thought a new criminal investigation could be under way. It was also alleged some staff have been 'encouraged' to buy financial products from the company.

Last month Evergrande posted a US$4•5bn loss for the first half. Shares of the worlds most indebted property company, its on the hook for $328bn fell to HK$0•465 in early trading. Back in 2017 the stock traded at a high of HK $32.

Latest:- Vix 14. WTI $91. Brent $94. Gold $1928. Copper $3•798.

Palm $960. Silver $23•420.

$1•24. €1•162.

FF-20. DF+54.

Morning all.

DJ -289 (34,618)

SP -55 (4450)

NS -271(15,202)

R2 -11 (1186)

WTI $91

10ytb 4•331%

MSCI(W) -22 (2961)

Gold Bugs +5 (229)

Close:- Vix 14. Brent $94.

Gold $1925. Copper $3•797.

Palm $960. Silver $23•305.

$1•238. €1•162.

Yen 147•3. Yuan 7•27.

FF -28. DF+10.

No change to speak of in MSi's share price this week despite buy trades out pacing sell trades by a goodly margin.

This has been the case recently which suited me as I picked up a few more to put into my share ISA which must have been routed via Mogadishu as it never appeared on lse. You take a lot on trust these days if you don't check.

Once we're through the summer holidays I expect vols and interest to increase markedly (see below for week 38 update) where share buy nos outpaced sells for the first time in ages.

T/vol 144,300

Buys 76,400

Sells 67,900

Buy% 53%

T/trds 94

Buys 74

Sells 20

Av trd 1535

52high 745

52low 315

Ytd

---

MSi +7•5%

Ftse +3%

All +2%

250 u/c

Aim -10%

DJ +4%

SP +16%

NS +39%

R2 +2%

Gold +6%

Oil +10%

Palm -6%

Morning all.

Once called Advanced Risc Machines (ARM) was the only story in town yesterday, as the much hyped debut of Softbank's Arm Holdings on the NYSE gripped investors.

Softbank which owns 95% of the Co saw the shares sold at $51 soar 25% on a strong opening day to close at c.$64 valuing the Co north of $60bn. Softbank acquired Arm for $30bn in 2016 taking the company private.

Its circuitry is used in 99% of all smart phones and is the dominant supplier to the mob phone mrkt. It's thought Softbank turned down an offer from Nvidia in 2020. Many of it's competitors, Nvidia, Apple & Samsung have snapped up shares in the IPO.

Other stocks were over shadowed by the hullabaloo around Arm. W.Buffet's Berkshire cut its holding by some 5•5m in HP($28) due to some internal irregularity. Its thought HP has been a disappointing investment for Buffet who retains a c.12% stake but no comment was issued by BH.

Moderna ($113) rose 4% after receiving regulatory approval for an updated version of its covid-19 vaccine. Tesla cont on its upward path adding $4 to $276 just short of its $293 best close.

Retail sales rose more than expected in August on higher gasoline prices while claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 220,000. Inflation remains persistent throughout the economy leaving traders to price in a rate raise in Nov. Risers on the NYSE outpaced decliners by a ratio of 6:1 on c.10bn shares changing hands.

DJ +332 (34,907)

SP +38 (4505)

NS +125 (15,574)

R2 +19 (1198)

WTI $91

10ytb 4•286%

MSCI(W) +26 (2983)

Gold Bugs +2 (225)

Latest:- Vix 13. Brent $94.

Gold $1916. Copper $3•843

Palm $970. Silver $23•155.

$1•242. €1•166.

FF+25. DF+77.

Morning all.

In the last year end report (6/23) cash held amounted to 105p per share or the equivalent of 14•5% of the company value, a healthy margin of safety you will agree and this only inc cash not inventory etc....buffing up the figs.

Few small companies can hold £15m cash on their balance sheet without stretching or skewing the nos elsewhere. I'm not sure what the definition of a small Co is but around £50-£200m would be ballpark which goes to MSi's financial resilience.

I will continue to add when funds become available so am quite happy the sp is not running away from me atm.

Wall turned in a mixed performance on Wed after the highly anticipated inflation report showed inflation accelerated across the country last month. The CPI hit 3•7% higher than a year earlier which was discouraging for shoppers despite inflation cooling from 9% last year.

On the markets the 500 edged up 5 the DJI off 70 & the Nsdq added 40 on a session which saw big tech stocks in demand. However its not all up up up, in the world of stock prices.

Airlines were pressured by losses across the whole sector. Among the major players American ($13) cut its profit forecast due to higher fuel costs and a retroactive payment of $230m to pilots. Spirit ($17) also cut its rev forecast in Q3 due higher fuel costs and steep discounting to fares. Falls were also seen in Delta down $2 at $39 & United off $2 at $46. Its a tough business to turn a buck. Rising seat costs are turning flyers back on to cars and rail.

One company defying the doom'mongers is Tesla. Ranked no 7 in the world's largest companies list ($861bn) continued its rapid rise gaining 11% this week. Tesla the undoubted star this year is up 151% and if you had bought the stock back in 2010 at $1•28 your sitting on a huge 21,095% gain. It wasn't as if you didn't have plenty of chances to buy, as late as Dec 2019 the stock traded at $27. Wish I'd paid more attention to the Elon hype, grrrrrrr!

DJ-70 (34,576)

SP +6 (4467)

NS + 59 (15,349)

R2 -7 (1179)

WTI $89

10ytb 4•236%

MSCI(W) +1 (2957)

Gold Bugs u/c (222)

Latest:- Vix 13. Brent $92.

Gold $1910. Copper $3•799.

Palm $950. Silver $23•030.

$1•249. €1•163. FF+17. DF+55.

Morning all.

Vols dropped off considerably but mid priced sales make it difficult to guage whether a buy or sell. Seems beyond the London Stock Exchange to rule either way. No surprises there. As long as those in the know keep the buggers in the dark (web) all will be well. Don't let them ask awkward questions. No turning over apple carts here please we want a quiet life.

.................... ********..................

My gripes are minor in comparison to a friend of mine who went down to his local bookie (cheaters) to collect a £300 winning dog bet only to be told the race had been cancelled and he would only be refunded his stake.

No sensible explanation was given to him.

Needless to say much aggro ensued and he's still out of pocket....and this latest scam of the 'cheaters' happened 2 days later in the same 'cheaters' shop..... "sorry mate your winning dog got cancelled" costing him c.£60 of his winnings.

Seems cheating punters out of their legitimate winnings is the new easy scam by the 'cheaters' kinda like trying to get your money refunded by a high street shop or any other impossible to claim bet without jumping over impossible hurdles.

I've heard of other horror stories in the same vain. I know one should never expect a 'cheater' to give you an even break but they are now downright taking the p**s.

Might be of interest to MSi investors to track Aim volume leaders (draggards not available). I'll update daily.

Top 40 risers.

--------

1) Mossman O&G 330m

2) Premier African 320m

3) Coro Energy 180m

4) Tower Resources 105m

5) Kefi Gold 86m

40) Greatland Gold 4m

Wall ended lower yesterday as Oracle ($110) fell more than 13% its bigest drop in 20 years after missing rev nos and disappointing guidance. Oracle chairman Ellison the 4th richest man on the planet saw his bank account fall c.$18bn but is pinning his hopes on his Gen2 cloud Ai business out competing other big tech in a crowded mrkt place.

Among stocks Apple ($176) fell 2% after unveiling its latest iPhone 15 to "so what" interest. In the face of a global slump in smartphone sales and stiffer competition from Huawei's Mate 60, Apple is losing its shine. Shares off 6% in the last 5 days and only 15% ahead on a 1yr basis.

On the S&P 500 (8/11) sector indexes fell led by info tech's usual suspects. Tesla by volume was by far the bigest with $36•7bn worth traded, shares fell $6 to $267. Investors still cling to hopes Elon Musk can make his "hyperloop" superfast rail system a reality. However the massive costs est ($100bn) of such a system ever becoming an economic reality is pooh poohed by many, saying ticket prices could never cover the construction and running costs.

DJ -18 (34,646)

SP -26 (4462)

NS -172 (15,290)

R2 -1 (1185)

WTI $89

10ytb 4•287%

MSCI(W) -14 (2956)

Gold Bugs u/c (222)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $92.

Gold $1912. Copper $3•778.

Palm $960. Silver $23•205.

$1•249. €1•162. FF-30. DF-40

Morning all.

Just to muddy the waters a good few late reported trades some fom last Friday and at much bigger volumes muddy the stats. Some have no deal time so I've had to place a price corresponding to a timed buy or sell deal that fits the picture. I think i have it 98% covered.

To give you an idea total 2 day volume as of 18:15 is 99,800 (56,600) sells and (43,200) buys. Total trades amount to 50 (38 buy/12 sell). I'll have to have another think wether its useful to cont logging the nos especially if deals start hitting 100 a day with late reporteds appearing days later. I'll have had enough by then.

Evening all.

Cash in hand, cash in the Bank, cash at all times is my preferred option if given a choice. I'm not swayed by talk of multi billion USD awards on the 'never-never' which often turn out badly.

I'm reminded by the old 'bird in the hand' adage which Aesop reportedly told the Wall St journal in 600 something adbc. It was incomplete. He was on the right track but needed to ask 3 questions.

* how certain are you there are birds in the bush?

* when will they come out

and how many will there be?

* what is the risk free int rate?

If you can answer these 3 questions you will know the max value of the bush and the max value of birds you now possess that should be offered for it. Account for some flying off or getting shot and you will come back to the 'folding' stuff everytime.

DJ +87 (34,664)

SP +30 (4487)

NS +182 (15,462)

R2 +1 (1186)

WTI $88

10ytb 4•288%

MSCI(W) +21 (2969)

Gold Bugs +3 (222)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $91.

Gold $1923. Copper $3•807.

Palm $970. Silver $23•455.

$1•251. €1•164. FF+8. DF-23.

US stocks rose yesterday as a jump in Tesla led a rally in big tech the Nsdq gaining 182. Morgan Stanley analysts said the electric car maker could add $500bn in value as its supercomputer Dojo opens new mrkts to the company. Tesla put on $28 to $283 up 153% this year.

Other notable gainers inc WD which reached a deal with Charter Comms. 3M, Msoft and Intel gained on back of Tesla. Apple struck a new chip deal with Qualcomm up $3 to ($110) whereby Qualcomm will provide its 5G Modem-RF systems for Apple phones launching from 2024 to 2026. Following trouble in China Apple stock is down 5% closing at $179 yesterday.

Volumes on US exchanges was a light 9•3bn traded gainers outpacing decliners by 1•5:1 and 9/11 S&P sectors rose on the day.

Morning all.

Morning discus1.

it's never too late to climb aboard! Imo too many investors dilly dally putting off decisions rather than grabbing the bull and buying. I know I've done it myself.

Obviously I'm a bull of the stock (so you need no sales patter from me) and i dithered in the low 300s before my first purchase and then late in further averaging up to an increasing stock price. I think I've made c.24 buys (crazy I know) but did manage to keep my avc within reasonable margins.

As long as you can look beyond the end of your nose I'm sure MSi will turn out a very good investment. The metrics all look good and your somewhat cushioned by a good and rising dividend.

Further out holders will be aware management are of advancing years and fighting fit I'm sure but will need clarity on the family Bell's c.33% holding.

This week sees the release of key US reports on retail sales, industrial production & consumer sentiment all of which will provide clues on the outlook for rates.

Dealers expect a 'stay' on rates this month but 53% chance of a hike in Nov. US big board stocks were weak on Friday the 500 adding just 6 points and down 59 on the week.

It's a mixed picture across Asia and Pacifica this morning. Tokyo, HK and SK are lower led by the Nikkei which dropped through the 32,400 level in morning trade as techs came under selling pressure but offset by gains in financials and motors.

Investors in HK cont to sell out of property stocks unconvinced by the authorities efforts to revive activity in the mainland real estate market. The HK property index fell 4% not helped by Alibaba falling 3% on the surprise departure of CEO Daniel Zhang.

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $91.

Gold $1928. Copper 3•762.

Palm $1010. Silver $23•375.

$1•252. €1•166.

FF +27. DF +65.

Morning all.

As I'm sure you all know mrkt prices have their limitations in the short term. Monthly movements are erratic and are not indicative of changes in intrinsic value.

However over time they will probably converge though in MSi's case I have no evidence for this given the long stretch from 2013-2021 when the sp flatlined. Its only since late 2022 that the shares have started to represent worth that 'intrinsic' value can be calculated (if indeed one can).

I prefer to consider MSi's per share book value as a method of calculating value rather than struggle with the DFCF numbers via longhand. However MSi earnings per share nos over the period 2005-2021 are very impressive as only 1 year posted a loss (2020 L15p).

Critics might point out the erratic variation in the eps nos (see below). Nevertheless for a small Aim company to show eps gains for 18 out of the last 19 years is no mean feat (ring me if you can find an equal).

During this period the sp has improved from c.74 to c.715 an 805% gain and the per share earnings averaged c.17p above the 13p mrkt average. Finally a total of 129p has been paid out in annual dividends over the period 2005-2023 averaging c.7•60p a share. That's an unblemished record of never missing a dividend payment.

Eps

---

2005 (12•4)

2006 (15•0)

2007 (18•2)

2008 (22•0)

2009 (19•5)

2010 (13•3

2011 (30•6)

2012 (34•8)

2013 (22•5)

2014 (14•6)

2015 (8•2)

2016 (9•6)

2017 (9•0)

2018 (20•5)

2019 (23•1)

2020 (L15)

2021 (7•2)

2022 (30•9)

2023 (25•6)

Morning all.

DJ +76 (34,577)

SP +6 (4457)

NS +22 (15,280)

R2 -4 (1185)

WTI $87

10ytb 4•271%

MSCI(W) +2 (2949)

Gold Bugs u/c 219

Close:- Vix 14. Brent $90.

Gold $1920. Copper $3•714.

Palm $1010. Silver $23•195.

$1•247. €1•165.

Yen 147•7. Yuan 72•6.

Morning all.

Sellers had the upper hand throughout the week leaving the shares little changed at 680-730p after slipping to 668 earlier.

The week saw c.271,000 shares traded (c.187,000 sells/c.84,00 buys) on 120 deals (73 buys/47 sells). This was the highest trade and deal volume for sometime thanks to a late surge of interest on Friday afternoon.

Too many trades fell mid price for it to be a 100% accurate count but for these purposes suffices and yea the ask hit a high for the year which was encouraging for investors many of whom consider the return on equity of c.18% to be good. I couldn't possibly comment!

Wk 36

Ytd

-----

MSi 680-730p

Ytd up 6%

52 up 116%

Aim -12%

--------

Ftse u/c

All +2%

250 -2%

------

DJ +4%

SP +16%

NS +40%

R2 +2%

------

Gold +6%

Palm -2%

Oil +5%

Cop -3%

Silv -4%

Morning all.

Its been all one way trading this week as short-term punters take profits. All part of the weekly jousting so no point in getting upset at the drop in the share value, its a passing phase.

What goes down on little volume with no reference to earnings stats will see a big turnaround once the majority of sellers are off the books. Remember last Friday the shares traded at 600 so I'm not surprised people are taking their winings before Friday's close of business.

Meanwhile hopefully investors have caught the next wave pushing the shares over 720 ahead of the wk end on c.10k vols. I picked up a couple of lots earlier this week convinced there's a lot more left in the tank for committed long-termers.

For the squiggly line and tech savvy theorists among you, here's MSi's tech nos for the last months most popular indicators.

Month

-----

Summary

(Strong buy)

Sell 0

Neutral 10

Buy 16

------

Oscillators

(Buy)

Sell 0

Neutral 9

Buy 2

-----

Moving Av

(Strong buy)

Sell 0

Neutral 1

Buy 14

------

RSI

Value 76

-------

Simple Moving Av

--------------

20 days 441 Buy

30 days 364 Buy

50 days 278 Buy

100 days 234 Buy

200 days 209 Buy