Member Info for JohnLewis79

Palm Oil prices have peaked so says Fitch Solutions. They expect prices will moderate to c.RM 3050pt this year compared to RM 2580 last.
In the near term prices to ease as demand from China and India drops due to uncompetitive prices. No mention of the China New Year demand. Overall global output is forecast to grow at c.4% yoy helped by Bidens 'green wave' set to increase demand for raw commodities.

Fitch expect palm oil output to drop significantly in the coming years as demand growth underwhelms in China and the EU. A few months back analysts were predicting global demand to rise to satisfy world population growth of c.80m people in 2020 and to reach 9bn peoples in 2037 from current 7•8bn. Looking that far out is fraught with complications but computer models have no doubt crunched every number known to man and have come up with the numbers.

Covid-19
04:30

UK 3,466,849 (91,470)*
Indonesia 927,380 (26,590)•

* 33,355 cases
* 1610 deaths
• 10,365 cases
• 308 deaths

On Wednesday Joe Biden begins his 4 year tenure as POTUS no 46. He will be welcomed by an equity mrkt at near all time highs and a virus that stubbornly refuses to die down (400,000 Americans have died to date). The latter he can do something about and he's pledged to do just that, the former, well thanks guys i'll take it especially as GS head of research says US GDP could grow at 11•4% this year thanks to his stimulus package.

Yet inflation & rate worries persist as the printing presses are on full steam ahead, $3tn already passed, $1•9tn in the works and $900bn in Dec and more lump sums down the road. Yellen says the benefits of the stimulus packages outweigh the costs of borrowing and will push for further infrastructure projects.

GS got US mrkts off to a strong start reporting Q4 nos Well ahead of Wall's estimates thanks to a terrific performance in their trading and underwriting businesses. Shares up to $305 later falling back to a $295 close. BOA up a touch at $33 easily beat forecasts and joined the other major banks in releasing cash from reserves to cover for possible covid losses.
Stocks in focus included *GM majority holder in Cruise Car Co which has partnered with Msoft to accelerate the commercialisation of self driving cars, shares added $6 to $56. Biden is pro the green revolution in Autos. *Tesla put on $17 to $843 after an upgrade by Jefferies to Q earnings nos next week. *Boeing added $4 following clearance for MAX to get flying again from Canada Regulators and an expected seal of approval from Europe next week. All Boeing needs is passengers to cart around the skies. Airlines did a bit of taxing to and fro but returned to the departure lounge empty.

Those 2 stalwarts of 'stay-at-home' stocks *Flix and *Zoom both gathered pace, Flix on Q4 nos which topped forecasts by adding 8m new subscribers in Dec and 34m for the year taking total to over 204m, shares jumped $62 to $563. *Disney ($172) its fiercest rival lags with 87m, stock off $5 ytd. Zoom gained $9 to $394 as it reported it intends to build 'Zoom Rooms' around the world to boost its international sales growth and prolong its shelf life. New and improved features will be rolled out this year to keep the Co ahead of the chasing pack, Apple, Gather, Cosmos, Skype etc,.

On the NYSE 13•87bn changed hands buys outpacing sells 2•15:1, with 37 new 52s, no new lows on the 500.

Nos: Oil $56•28. Vix 23.
Gold $1848. Copper $1•365.
Palm $915. $1•365. €1•124.
IDR 14,060. MSCI(W) 2713.
FF +22. DF -7
Morning all.

Lse quoting 55-60, think brokers will be nearer my 54-55. Understand its a difficult stock to price for two way trade but hell that's their job innit? No point in a 10% spread noone will trade that spread, oops that's the whole point isn't it?
Best the Robinows offer us c.60, take the Co private and we can all go home! Thank you and good afternoon.

Think i'll have a beer, several beers!

Its one way traffic this morning sells outpacing buys by c.9:1 as holders throw in the towel.
Cpo tumbling to $926 may have some bearing, no make that definitely has some bearing. Sub 50 definitely on the cards if cpo goes anywhere near $825 on a level with last year. Fact of life here, Cpo Up shares Down, Cpo Down shares Down. Even the Prefs concur at 80•5.

Other London palms not reacting to the c.$80 slump in price from recent intraday highs.

There has been a lot of talk on the 'patchy' roll out of the vaccine, some say its a postcode lottery. I had my jab the Pfizer version last Friday with all the other 'wrinklies.'
Very surprised to be called up so soon. Have to say considering the nos being dealt with everything was handled smoothly and quickly by the Nursing Staff.

He will be doing no business at 61. Cpo off $20 already this morning i think he should be at 54-55 at best.

B/Bulls have a record of 2/11 correct calls on REA, that doesnt come close to my 100% correct average but tbf i'm not calling a 'trade' weekly.
I have been consistently bearish on the sp while living in hopes, dwindling as they are that "things can only get better"

That may happen in 2021/2 but its not written in stone that REA share values will reflect the improved environment.
Until the crushing debt can be resolved without kicking it down the road for another 5 years we will be aimlessly wandering around here.

One way to resolve our predicament is to become the junior partner of PREMA Plantations Ltd when REA & MPE ( geddit?) join hands in a loving embrace at the altar. Heh, heh,heh, don't hold yer breath!

Cpo prices are forecast to decline for the rest of the month to a floor of 3200 ringgit. Indonesia's exports rose 15% (2•56mt) in Dec on higher shipments to Malaysia who became increasingly dependent on Indonesia to cover the shortfall in local requirements.

Indonesia's exports to Malaysia rose 11% to 48kt in Dec, RBD Palm olein rocketed 21x to 73•5kt. Meanwhile Malaysia cpo outflows rose 92% to 726•5kt mainly to India the highest in many years.

Indonesia's cpo exports rose 57% to 142•6kt in 2020. Exports to India were u/c, to the Netherlands up 52% and China by 8•4% (468kt) and is expected to spike in January pre the Chinese New Year in Feb.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 3,433,494 (89,860)*
Indonesian 917,015 (26,282)•

* 37,535 cases
* 599 deaths
• 9086 cases
• 295 deaths

Tokyo stocks (+430) leads the Asian advance this morning bouncing off 2 days of concerted selling. Bottom fishers were actively scooping up oversolds in Autos & chips. Nissan, Honda, Toyota all gained c.2-4% and Hitachi a technology giant put on 5%.
Chinas 4Q GDP of 6•5% bouyed investors who believe China will underpin growth in the region. Shares in Shanghai trod water.

In HK shares rocketed up over 900 in early dealings to a 20 month high as demand for cheap stocks from mainland China led the rise on the Hang Seng. Southern inflows of cash has been a feature of the HK market this year, which has under performed China & the US for over 2 years.
Big gainers were property, techs and pharmas. Other Pan Pacifics followed Tokyo's lead all in the black column except Jakarta which ran into profit takers. Indonesia has been one of the best Asian performers this year gaining 6% ytd.

At 2:30 JST
TK +433
HK +694
SH ~
SHZ ~
SK +91
TAIX +316
JSX -37
ASX +80

Nos: Oil $55•00. Vix 24.
Gold $1835. Copper $3•61.
Palm $943. $1•360. €1•125.
IDR 14,085. MSCI(W) 2713.
FF +27. DF +60.
Morning all.

Joe B (a radical leftist according to Trump) gets crowned on Wednesday, live on a TV near you folks. No doubt to much celebration from the 50% who voted for him, the other 49 who didn't will be sticking pins into effigies of Joe B.
Perhaps one of his first jobs will be to try and heal the scars that divide the Nation, a job akin to persuading Man U supporters to have a pint with the Hub Cap Stealers before kick off.

Against this background of a split society, millions unemployed, a rampant virus, a botched vaccine roll out, Biden has as tough an ask as Johnson had following Kennedy being assassinated in Dallas and the escalating Vietnam War which bedevilled his Presidency. That lead to Tricky Dickie a Republican succeeding him. This time he succeeds Tricky Trump.

Of course the mrkts overcame those huge upheavals, they are pragmatic after all, as this one will in 2021/2 all being well. But let's face it the Wall of the Go Go Years, the 70s & pre big bang 80s mrkts.... were almost medieval in costruct compared to the automatic 'click mrkts' of today.

US mrkts are closed for Martin Luther King Day a Federal Holiday since 1986. Several other cities observe MLK Day, Toronto and Hiroshima being two. King a Baptist Minister and civil rights activist was shot and killed in 1968 by one James Earl Ray a fugitive from the law while staying in a Memphis motel.
He was on a speaking tour of Southern States. Ray was sentenced to 100 years and died in prison aged 70 in 1998.

Blimey nobull your even more pessimistic than I am as to the state of affairs in Realand and that's saying something. A Lararus style miracle or rabbits out of hats, which you alluded to is needed here.
Cost of sales might come down this year and need to substantially. Very few businesses i know of can sustain an 80% cost of sales and come out smelling of roses. We are a labour intensive business so very little we can do about that given all the ancillary jobs required to be done on estates.

Unfortunately there is no quick fix outside of $1200 palm plus & thats extremely unlikely or some form of concession to producers & that's extremely unlikely what with the Govts obsession with B100 biodiesel.
Reasons to be cheerful i'm afraid are few as the palm business is under attack from a myopic Govt.

Yer usual pp performance to start the week. Pretty sure the TU nos are already in the price, everything else is...onwards and backwards take your pick...

Four days after Elon Musk prompted Twitter followers to use "Signal" a reference to the Signal encrypted messaging app which he had lent money to, investors rushed to buy Signal Advance a small component manufacturer.

During Mondays chaotic trading in the stock 2m shares were traded jumping 438%, reaching $71 up from 60c on Jan 6th. Now worth more than $3bn the Co with just one full time employee reported no revenues for 2015 & 2016 Noone was available for comment.

Similar mistakes have occurred in the past, Zoom was one. Going to be an interesting day on Tuesday when punters realise their mistake! I thought Aim was iffy but the OTC/Pink Sheet mrts are a whole different ball game.

Bearish sentiment prevails as futures pull down the cash market and Soy prices fall.
Buyers are prepared to wait for better prices and cpo is expected to trade in the 3200-3400 ringgit range this week. Current $942/$1005/R3290.

Closed 18 & 19th, January.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,395,959 (89,261)*
Indonesia 907,929 (25,987)•

* 38,598 cases
* 671 deaths
• 11,287 cases
• 220 deaths

The Chinese economic engine spluttered into life in the 3Q growing the GDP at 2•3% for 2020 the only major economy to achieve growth figures. It was the worst GDP nos in 45 years. With little global news to drive share prices it was local factors that pushed China's two main exchanges up c.30 points at lunch. Covid cases continued to spike in Beijing & surrounds 109 new cases yesterday and ytd 88,300 cases, 4635 deaths.

The Nikkei was heading the other way off 300+, profit taking on semi conductors and chip makers sending equities down from recent 30 year highs. Covid restrictions are hitting Dept Stores, Mitsuko down 6% and J.Front Retailing losing 5%. Huawei suppliers, including Intel fell on a Reuters report that the Trump Administration had revoked certain licences to the firm. Uncertain how the Biden Govt would act on the Huawei question investors headed for the sidewalk.

S.Korea saw 389 new covid cases and 15 new deaths the KOSPI down 52. Taiwan which has the least infections only 855 cases and 7 fatalities fell on tech selling and Pacifics took their queue from Tokyo were all lower except Jakarta up 34.
At JST 2:00pm
TK -323
HK +139
SH +25
SHZ +30
SK -51
TAIX -87
BM -17
STI -21
ASX -50

Nos: Oil $54•62. Vix 24.
Gold $1828. Copper $3•160.
Palm $938/$990. $1•356. €1•124.
IDR 14,100. MSCI(W) 2715.
FF -5. DF -34.
Morning all.