Member Info for JohnLewis79

Door to door testing being implemented in Mitcham, South London.....

Door to Door testing being implemented in a S.London Borough, Mitcham.

A few investors must have been encouraged by the TU yesterday as buys outpaced sells by 5:1, .....that's a first.....pushing the shares to 61. Easy to 'cherry pick' the good bits i suppose (the higher prices will be materially beneficial to the Co) but I will wait and see what happens in April. I wasn't overwhelmed, I expected output to be higher but conditions on the ground obviously hampered collection & output. Its your bog standard unable to be refuted line in REA reports.

Much will depend on cpo through to the HY, so far so good but a lot can happen in 4 months so expect the unexpected is my two bits worth of good for nothing advice.

Covid-19
05:30

UK 3,835,783 (106,564)*
Indonesia 1,089,308 (30,277)•

* 18,607 cases
* 406 deaths
• 16,994 cases
• 279 deaths

Wall followed strong gains in Asia, Europe & London to start the week in bright mode, the Dow jumping 250 at the bell only to run into traders clipping 200 off the early gains.
At lunch the mrkts had quietened down as the speculative side moved into silver following users on Redditts 'WallStreetBets' message boards ramped the shiny metal. Silver a $1•6tn mrkt hit $30•350 its highest since 2013.

GamesStop the cause of last weeks hullabaloo sunk $77 as their army of supporters grabbed quickly diminishing profits. AMC another ramped stock slipped from $17 to $14 at mid session. FAANGs jumped on back of Msoft surging $9 to $241 with Apple up $3 ($135) will be selling Bonds and buying back stock, Amazon added $113 ($3319), Google gained $77($1904) and Fbk up $4 ($262).
Stay at homes Flix ahead $9 ($542) and Zoom rose $4 ($376). Tomorrow Amazon and Google wrap up the Q4 earnings season for the FAANGs.

Tesla at lunch moved up $36 to $840 and its worth noting the company posted a net income of $721m on a Gross Profit of $5•4bn but had it not been for the $1•6bn of zero emission credits awarded by the Govt which they sold to other car makers they would have posted a loss. Analysts cont to pump up their sp targets for Tesla some as high as $1200.

The 500 was trading up over 50 points, 9/11 sectors ahead led by techs with energy and consumer staples suffering. Sector switching is common during periods of above average volatility as investors chase the ever moving Ace from the gun slingers of WallStreetBets and other instruments of mass destruction in fact anything to turn a coin as speculative fever and easy money " i made $30,000 last week" does the rounds of message boards encouraging flash'mobs to pile in.

On the NYSE risers outpaced decliners by 4•15:1 with 6 new 52s, vol c.18bn.
DJ +229 (30,212)
SP +60 (3774)
NS +324 (13,249)
R2 +22 (1210)
WTI $54•11
10ytb $1•090%

Nos:- Oil $56•87. Vix 30.
Gold $1857. Copper $3•547.
Silver $28•615. Palm $984.
$1•368. €1•133. IDR 14,040.
MSCI(W) 2698. FF+47. DF+151.
Morning all.

Had to get the news from Dkl re announcement of the TU. Nothing of note to comment on and as I expected hardly earth shattering, cpo vols down, mill delays, all the bloody usual, bad weather on and on it goes...gonna stop now before I do myself some damage.

At the H/Y to June 2020 av selling prices achieved were cpo $527($430), cpko $616 ($590) that provided an op earnings profit of $11m. Since the HY prices have increased substantially, cpo has averaged c.$812 and cpko c.$900e.

So the top line and operating earnings will be much better and at a squeak depending on what happens below those 2 nos a profit could be reported.
But knowing REA they will find a way to report losses, take your pick, impairments, FX losses, unforseen Mill costs, increased fertilisers, stock swings etc..... at least debt should come down though liabilities will still exceed shareholder funds.

Now we will be looking to HI nos and as far as cpo here's the nos, indicative of course. Q1 2020 ($719) / Q2 2020
($636) averaging H1 $727.

Stocks in Asia which were forecast to open lower are mostly higher led up by Japans Nikkei pushing ahead by 360. Beaten down techs are being sought and some upbeat earnings forecasts have bouyed investors. Nervousness over the Main St v Wall St GamesStop saga, J&Js vaccine bust and the Dows 600 slump made no impact as the session headed towards the afternoon close. HK bounced after 4 days of losses (1876) climbing 540 on mainland interest and support from bottom fishers.

Indonesia after 7 down days (600 points) bounced 80 above the 5760 support level as news of the GamesStop phenomenon could be infecting commodity trading (Coal & Palm). SK and Taiwan are both well ahead on local factors and Shanghai is flat. Australia followed Asia's bright start rising 47 before the close.

Nos: Oil $55•37. Vix 33.
Gold $1863. Copper $3•575.
Silver $28•67. Palm $977.
$1•373. €1•132. IDR 14,030.
MSCI(W) the 2662. FF+11. DF +120.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 3,817,176 (106,158)*
Indonesia 1,078,314 (29,998)•

* 21,088 cases
* 587 deaths
• 12,001 cases
• 270 deaths

GamesStop had been on quite a few investors radar for many months and at $4.90 were considered by many to be undervalued as a new gen of games consols was about to be released that usually led to a price rise in GS type retailers. The fact that GS was one of the most popular 'shorts' on Wall did not register immediately.

Michael Burry who famously 'called' the US housing mrkt crisis and bet against Lehmann Bros, had a 2% stake in GS. Fandoms of Burry, Joe Public & those on WallStreetBets, took positions in GS as the buzz spread round message boards.

In a 'fortuitous' stroke of luck 'God' short for Elon Musk tweeted a link to WallStreetBets captioned "GamesStonk!" The bloodsucking Army didn't need any further prompting, leeching on they piled in pushing the price up 90% that day. As more 'piggy backed' media chatter of "lets drive the Hedgies out of business" GS surged 135% the next day.
Short sellers buckled under the relentless rise one Hedge fund needed a $2•8bn lifeline. Citron threw in the towel. To date if there are any shorters left they have dumped c.$20bn on a stock 12 months ago hardly anybody knew existed.

Some of the little guys have made small and big fortunes. One man made $33m on his YOLO-ing bet on GS (slang for going all in on a trade) and at the other end a student bght 230 shares 3 wks ago at $39 a pop now worth $75,000. Now if that had been me I'd have cashed out and bght myself a pub and invited you dear reader(s) round for a drink.
The student? He's holding on for $1000 a share. He says he's confident the stock would rise even higher. Others commented... "its as risky as hell but holy cow its like getting high" Oh dear!

Blackberry, AMC, Nokia and others have benefitted from the GamesStop phenomenon now being referred to as the GamesStop "ripple" effect.

This has nothing to do with the fundamentals afterall GS is a boring bricks & mortar retail outlet whose nos are nothing to write home about and under normal circumstances might trade at $20 tops. Its much more about 'herd' psychology fuelled by Redditt, WallStreetBets and Robinhood punters chatting on Social Media Outlets waging war against the titans of Wall.

I'ts a points win Joe Public but ripples eventually lose momentum and die out as this fad most surely will, when investors move out and track the next speculative wave.

Dkl to make more than Mpe in 2/3 years? Wow, that's a big call hereandnow given where Dkl are atm.
Mpe made $7•5m in 2019 on revs of $119m but will exceed that when 2020 nos are reported ($6m OP at H/Y) versus Dkl €0•4m profit on revenues of €15•4m at the same stage.

I have a holding in REA the worst performer by several country miles especially when compared to Dkl which is the best performer by several country miles!

Anything is possible but Dkl to hit €100m revenues in the next few years looks fanciful to me. If I believed that I'd dump REA and pile in here! Gluck anyway.

Rea 171 (56)
Cpo $748 ($972)
Cif(R) $1035e

Oil $57
Gold $1588

Ftse 7286
All 4057
DJ 28,256
SP 3226
NS 9151

$1•320
€1•190
IDR 13,655

Anglo 540
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,796,088 (105,571)*
Indonesia 1,066,313 (29,728)•

* 23,275 cases
* 1200 deaths
• 14518 cases
• 210 deaths

January often points to the way ahead for the rest of the year, but all bets are off as at this time last year the virus was just emerging. So, a promising start has petered out following yesterday's mini 2% panic on Wall.

US small caps are the best performers globally rising 6% followed by HK & SK both 4%. Only Jakarta 2% and KL 4% of the Far East Exchanges are in the red for the year.

On the major global mrkts:-

Ftse (-•8%)
All (-•6%)
DJ (-2%)
SP (-1%)
NS (+•3%)
R2 (+6%)

TK (+•8%)
HK (+4%)
SH (+•3%)
SK (+4%)
ASX (+•3%)

Cpo (-•6%)
Oil (+6%)
Gold (-3%)
Copr (+•6%)

$ (+•3%)
€ (+1%)
IDR (-•1%)

Anglo (+5%)
Dkl (+21%)
Mpe (-4%)
Rea (-4%)

Rea 163 (55)
Cpo $747 ($972)
Cif(R) $1035e

Oil $57
Gold $1583

Ftse 7382
All 4105
DJ 28,859
SP 3284
NS 9299

$1•309
€1•186
IDR 13,645

Anglo 550
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 688

Covid-19
06:00

UK 3,772,813 (104,371)*
Indonesia 1,051,795 (29,518)•

* 29,079 cases
* 1245 deaths
• 13,802 cases
• 187 deaths

Wall tumbled 620 taking its cue from poor Far East and European stock market losses. Also weighing on sentiment was the poor vaccine results from J&J being only 72% effective, the stop start roll-out and infections showing no signs of slowing. Sellers came in fast and furious knocking the Dow 747 points by 2:00pm. A half hearted recovery saw some of the losses pared by close. It was the worst wk for the indexes since Oct.

On the economy data showed US labour costs rose more in Q4 than forecast due to a jump in wages and consumer spending the big driver fell for the second straight month though personal spending edged up due to on line activities.

The on going GamesStop phenomenon which has hit headlines the world over is partly responsible for the huge increase in trading volumes. Redditt has 6m players prepared to tilt at the big Firms, add in Robinhood and its an Army of bowmen facing the 'Streets' tanks. The NYSE reported 23bn was traded on Wed and vols over 20bn have been seen, way above usual vols. GamesStop traded as high as $381 but closed at $312 for a gain of $118 on 50•1m traded. It is thought the on'going battle between Wall and the 'little man' is responsible for hedge funds selling Blue chips to cover speculative trade losses in GS, AMC, Blackberry & Nokia.

Elsewhere coronas did well, Moderna added $14 to $173 on 40m traded but the big move of the day was Novavax soaring $87 to $221 after a 95•6% success rate in a UK trial. FAANGs caught the selling flak, Apple off $5 to $132, Msoft down $7 to $232 and Fbk fell $7 to $258. Stay at homes were not spared Amazon fell $34, Flix $8 and Zoom down $11. Airlines, Cruises and Hotels were all in the red generally falling between $1 and $4. Tesla knocked off the front pages slipped $47 to $787.

On the NYSE 18bn changed hands sellers outpacing buyers by 2•88:1 with 7 new 52s. All 11 sectors of the S&P fell.
At close:-
DJ -620 (29,983)
SP -73 (3714)
NS -276 (12,925)
R2 -18 (1189)
WTI $52•14
10ytb 1•064.

Nos:- Oil $55•10. Vix 33.
Gold $1850. Copper $3•540.
Palm $972/$1035. $1•371.
€1•129. IDR 14,030. MSCI(W) 2662.
Morning all.

Very quiet wk for REA holders as far as trading vols go total trades hit 49,621, split 28,625 buys & 20,996 sells. Shares flat at 55-6.
Cpo average slipped $5 to average $958 ($810) up 18% ytd. Cif(R) $1035. KLPI off 215 to 7098 down 3% ytd. The Bursa Malaysia KLCI is down 4% ytd along with Jakarta the only two Far East/Pan Pacific mrkts to close lower this year.

Wk Closes:-
Anglo 608 (+18)
Dkl 5•20 (-•60)
Mpe 660 (-30)
(Prices indicative).

Seems we get positive news flow from other Palmers, Dkl on the fully over subscribed placing at near current sp and improving outlook in production for 2021. Not sure i'm a fan of monthly output updates, quarterly as in the US most certainly, if for no other reason might be an early forewarning......of trip up's ahead. Or placings which will dilute many, a necessary evil i suppose.

I expect much of what Anglo & Mpe have already reported will apply to REA in terms of better output & revenue numbers or ebita/operating earnings being the true test in my 'umble...unfortunately its the stuff below that booogers us and keeps the sp sub 70.

Much to be resolved for REA before any meaningful appreciation in the sp, could be 6p a tree soon, ffs!