Member Info for JohnLewis79

Dow opened down 352 after late falls in China & weakness in Europe and London. That's been the on'going trend of late, early falls followed by a guick recovery as the top 30 get churned by dealers. Short at open and time your buyback to the minute and heh presto your in the money!

Tech lovers got banjaxed again the Nsdq off 240 soon after the bell as 'rotators' were back dumping big tech, Apple down $3, Msoft fell $2, Amazon slipped $38 & Zoom couldn't buck the trend fell $15 to $380. Holders cont to dump Tesla after a $5000 slump in Bitcoin to ($48,493) took the shine of the stock falling below $700 for the first time since Dec'20 and Zoom couldn't buck the trend fell $15 to $380.

GamesStop the Co that caused all the furore among robinhood and WallStreeBets punters has plunged from $347 to $44 in a month. Puffed up and pummelled down, that's the mrkt for you. Taking on the big boys is fraught with risk if your dabbling in their backyard.

As London closed up shop, the Dow once again had recovered most of the early losses trading down 100 with the Nsdq off 180 but the direction is anyone's guess with 200 point swings every couple of hours. Fed Chair Powells words hardly reassured mrkts, he said the economy remains "uneven & far from complete" and it will be some time before the Fed considers a change in policy. Meantime parts of the economy are still in intensive care needing money transfusions. Metals are at near 10 yr highs, prices have been shooting up rising c.16% in Feb as speculators piled into the mrkt with net longs in LME copper at 54% of open contracts. Aluminium, Zinc, nickel, lead & tin were all near multi year highs along with the other 'unmentionable' soft commodity.

Stocks in focus saw Home Depot fall 6% ($14 to $262) as the retailer warned it was unable to predict how consumer spending would evolve this year. Better ask Amazon! Occidental Petroleum ($26) recovered earlier 10% falls after a larger than expected Q4 loss. Marathon oil hit a 52wk high as did Wynn Resorts and Walt Disney. Topping the big board was P&G, JPMC, Visa & WD. Heading down HD, Apple, Boeing and Nike. A late rally pushed the Dow & 500 into positive territory, 1867 fallers, 1239 risers on c.14bn traded on the NYSE.

DJ +16 (31,537)
SP +5 (3881)
NS -29 (13,195)
R2 -8 (1289)
WTI $61•16
10ytb 1•410%

Nos:- Oil $64•10. Vix 23.
Gold $1809. Copper $4•168.
Palm $1056. Silver $27•775.
$1•415. €1•165. IDR 14,088.
MSCI(W) 2788. FF -34. DF-81
Morning all.

I wish rugs! Looks like 14/5 is pub day.

Cpo is just $95 off doubling from low $573 on 6th, May last. Rea has surged 6p very strange as you'd think it should have fallen 6, always surprises you sp moves don't they? I mean 6p, wow that's really overdoing it big time.

I used to think 70-5 was a realistic sp target for 2020 I'm revising that for 2022 (if the Co is still in existence by then) as no doubt cpo will be back to $573 the shares will be 40-5. I jest of course or do I?

But I hear you say, REA will be making money for the first time since goodness knows when...So what? Thats got nothing to do with the sp! We are making money now at $900 cpo, whats the sp doing?

90% of the high risk have been inoculated and 70% of the over 60s yet Bozo refuses to reopen pubs in March. Those age groups comprise the majority of drinkers in my local.

No doubt he's acting on some dodgy model, garbage in, garbage out, or he ain't telling us the truth about the vaccine. How come he's so despondent when we are told daily that the vaccine is working wonders?
Surely the pubs could open and only serve those who have their jab cert/card as proof? Perhaps hours could initially be restricted to enable pubs to start operating?

How many Central London pubs have gardens for chrissssakes? My local has a smallish outside patio that can accommodate 40 people and thats deemed too small! Beyond March is crazy imo. Are we to wait till 30,40,50 million have been vaccinated?
How many more pubs will have disappeared by the 21st of June? By then they will have been turned into those businesses of National importance....Estate Agents!

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,126,150 (120,757)*
Indonesia 1,288,833 (34,691)•

* 10,641 cases
* 177 deaths
• 10,180 cases
• 202 deaths

Wall headed South from the bell as big tech continued last weeks falls, Apple off $3, Msoft lost $7 and Tesla dumped $37 all before 10:00am. Late selling in China & HK soured investors mood. The 30 fell 208 but recovered quickly as traders bought the dip and was flat by mid'day. As Q4 company earnings reports are finished inflation worries preoccupy mrkts due in part to the
$tn stimulus measures. Many investors are preparing for a spike in inflation which would hit growth stocks. Yields on the 10/ytb are c.1•4% and are forecast higher.

Energy stocks were sought as the oil price jumped nearly $2 to $61•05. GS oil analysts predicting $70 oil by Q2 and $75 by Q4. Current oil price at a 1 year high as the sector put on 2%. Big oil Chevron up $4 to $99, Exxon $2 to $55 and Marathon added $1 to $11.

Stocks on the move inc Boeing which fell 2% initially as the Pratt & Whitney engine which power Boeing planes suffered parts dropping off into residential areas in Denver Colorado and Holland, no injuries were reported. The Co immediately grounded all 128 (777) jetliners. Boeing ($219) bounced $5 on the news and Raytheon ($74) parent to the engine maker rose $2. Bad news is good news these days.

Discovery the media giant trying to muscle into the streaming space occupied by Flix and Disney jumped 10% to $56 when it forecast 12m global paid up subscribers by end of Feb. Very much in Netflix's rear view mirror. Kohls the dept store stock rose 6% after a group of 'activist' investors with c.10% of the Co stock nominated 9 new Directors to the board in an effort to turn round the ailing store which has seen revenues plunge due to covid & the online activities of Amazon. Principal Financial Group also jumped on stake building as Elliott Management Corp took a stake in the Life Insurance Group, shares up $5 to $60. Elliott are notorious "shaker up" of underperformers. Finally Disney gained $8 to $192 as it ramped up its Euro productions in local languages to broaden its appeal, 50 new shows are expected by 2024.

As Londons ftse closed down 12 the Dow was 50 better but the Nsdq Comp was 254 down. Afternoon trading was quiet the Dow slipping from an intraday high of 31,653 the Nsdq tumbled from 13,447 (223) late on to close off 3%. Tesla tanked near 10% to close at $710 after Musk said he thought Bitcoin "was a bit high" that wiped $15bn off his net worth. The stock has slumped $170 last 30 days which will please the shorts who have open positions.

On the NYSE fallers outpaced gainers by 1•13:1 on 14•3bn with 71 new 52s no new lows.
DJ +27 (31,522)
SP -30 (3876)
NS -357 (13,224)
R2 +8 (1297)
WTI $61•69
10ytb 1•364%

Nos:- Oil $65•37. Vix 23.
Gold $1812. Copper $4•189.
Palm $1043. Silver $28•260.
$1•407. €1•157. IDR 14,109.
MSCI (W) 2788. FF +18. DF+108.
Morning all.

Asia and Pan Pacific exchanges are mixed this morning. Japan (+241) and Taiwan (+105) are ahead but China & HK flat. Jakarta is up 68 but KL & Singapore are little changed. Australia ended the day off 13. There was little news to move mrkts which have in the main priced in the virus, reduction in global cases and speed of inoculations in Europe and the US.

Shanghai's main Exchange has seen concerted selling out of techs into Banks, Energy and Consumer Staple companies. Chinas base rate was cut 0•2% to 3•85%.

Nos:- Oil $63•06. Vix 22.
Gold $1786. Copper $4•175.
Palm $1037. Silver $27•525.
$1•401. €1•156. IDR 14,106.
MSCI(W) 2806. FF -52. DF -50.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:30

UK 4,115,509 (120,580)*
Indonesia 1,278,653 (34,489)•

* 9834 cases
* 215 deaths
• 7300 cases
• 173 deaths

Rea 152 (58)
Cpo $710 ($1043)
Cif(R) $1100e

Oil $58
Gold $1648

Ftse 7404
All 4133
DJ 28,992
SP 3378
NS 9577

$1•297
€1•195
IDR 13,765

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 684

Covid-19
07:00

UK 4,105,675 (120,365)*
Indonesia 1,271,353 (34,316)•

* 10,406 cases
* 445 deaths
• 8054 cases
• 164 deaths

Rea 152 (58)
Cpo $696 ($1042)
Cif (R) $1100e

Oil $59
Gold $1624

Ftse 7437
All 4150
DJ 29,220
SP 3373
NS 9751

$1•288
€1•193
IDR 13,707

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 684

Covid-19
06:00

UK 4,095,269 (119,920)*
Indonesia 1,263,299 (34,152)•

* 12,027 cases
* 533 deaths
• 10,614 cases
• 183 deaths

Wall closed flat yesterday but eked out a small gain on the week while the 500, Nsdq & R2 closed lower on the session and week. The rotation out of tech into cyclicals continues with the likes of Netflix ($539) down $9, Amazon ($3248) off $80 & Google ($2089) fell $17. Zoom fell $16 on the week to $417.

Financials, energy and materials continue to lead the S&P sectors. The S&P 1500 Airlines index gained c.4% as Airlines are seen as early movers once the recovery is fully underway, United +$3 to $48, Delta +$1 to $46 and American added a $ to $19. Cruise stocks had a good day RC added $5 to $79, Carnival up $2 to $25 and Norwegian gained $2 to $27. As yet bookings are slow and much depends of the speed of vaccinations though with the elderly being inoculated first that will help cruise operators to tempt them with 'no frills' deals to get them on board.

US Treasury yields rose strongly on the week closing at 1•34% as Bond prices fell fuelled by hopes of economic activity recovering strongly in the next 2 quarters. Rising yields could dissuade investors from taking riskier bets in equities. When Govt Bond yields rise all asset prices should reprice lower, well that's the theory but at under 1•5% that's hardly competitive to equities. Yields would have to clear 3% before even the most risk averse would consider switching. Currently the S&P 500 trades on a pe/r of 22x well above its long-term av of 15 times.

On the NYSE risers outpaced decliners by 1•87:1 on 14bn shares traded with 51 new 52s on the 500.
DJ +1 (31,494)
SP -7 (3907)
NS -57 (13,581)
R2 +21 (1289)
WTI $59•01
10ytb 1•340%

Nos:- Oil $64•23. Vix 22.
Gold $1783. Copper $4•066
Palm $1043. Silver $27•37.
$1•401. €1•156. IDR 14,065.
MSCI(W) 2806.
Morning all.

Volume on the week was 67,379 with buys & sells level. Shares traded flat from Monday ending the week on 58 mid. Other London palms experienced similar trading patterns. The KLPI added 45 and trades down 1•6% ytd. Palm Co share prices in Malaysia like in London ignore the bountiful goods bestowed on them by the golden oil price.

Cpo gained $25 on the wk to close at $1043/$1,115 in Rotterdam and averages $979 ytd v $780 last year. Two thirds the way through Q1 cpo looks likely to average c.$290pt more.

Sp on the week :-
Anglo +2
Dkl u/c
Mpe -30 or -17
IDR 14,065

BM 1585 (ytd -3%)
STI 2881 (ytd +1%)
JSX 6232 (ytd +4%)

Have another good lockdown wk/end all.

Rea 152 (57)
Cpo $696 ($1020)
Cif(R) $1115e

Oil $59
Gold $1610

Ftse 7457
All 4158
DJ 29,348
SP 3386 (R)
NS 9817 (R)

$1•294
€1•198
IDR 13,687

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,083,242 (119,387)*
Indonesia 1,252,685 (33,969)•

* 12,057 cases
* 454 deaths
• 9039 cases
• 181 deaths

A surprise rise in jobless claims unnerved investors in early trading. Streeters expected claims to be less than last weeks 848,000 but came in at 861,000 new claims due in part to Automobile Plant closures because of the chip shortage from S.Korea.
Illinois saw 33,000 new claims and California 21,000 two of the highest but Texas saw just 6000 file.
Currently c.18•3m are unemployed. This is one part of the economy thats proving very hard to turn around. Companies have slimmed down during the lockdowns and are not re-hiring in predicted numbers.

Stocks with high earning multiples are being sold to buy cheaper more reasonably priced cyclicals so one is seeing a lot of profit taking among big tech, FAANGs & pis fave Tesla.
In early moves the Dow was off 288 following mixed reports from the Far East and European bourses. Leading the big board lower were Walmart, Apple, Disney, Amex and Boeing off $6 ($210) as two board members leave, a number of others will follow as Boeing restructures itself to face a post covid world.
Six stocks on the up and up, Home Depot, Coke, Verizon, Big Mac, 3M & IBM. Tesla is off $20 at $779 continuing its poor run since getting involved with Bitcoin which hit a high of $52,173 on Wed. As techs led the mrkt up its now pulling the mrkt down and strategist see a 10% correction on the Nsdq Comp which would take it to c.12,330 last seen in Dec 2020.

Just for interest i checked GamesStop and yea its going down off $5 to $41, as the CEO of Redditt & others will appear before Congress to testify. One of the main players in the saga one "Roaring Kitty" (Keith Gill) of UTube fame has been hit with a lawsuit alleging he duped investors into buying inflated stocks while hiding his sophisticated financial background. He was in early at c.$5. Mr Gill has strongly rebutted such allegations.

Companies reporting included Marriott the world's largest Hotel chain with 7000 properties, it reported a poor Q4 loss due to pandemic restrictions. Arne Sorenson the Co CEO died yesterday. Shares little moved at $132. Walmart slid $10 to $138 after missing Q4 profit estimates and predicted fiscal 2022 net sales to rise in the low single digits.
Fbk came off $4 to $269 as the Street assessed the wider implications of its moves to block all news content in Australia. Only defensive utilities of the SP 11 sectors was in positive territory.

As London closed down 94 the Dow was tracking sideways looking for new inspiration. With nothing to change mrkt direction shares came off at the end of the day. On the NYSE c.15bn were traded losers 2•6:1 over risers, with 6 new 52s.
DJ -119 (31,493)
SP -17 (3914)
NS -62 (13,637)
R2 -20 (1267)
WTI $59•39
10ytb 1•290%

Nos:- Oil $62•91. Vix 24.
Gold $1764. Copper $3•914.
Palm $1028. Silver $26•75.
$1•395. €1•155. IDR 14,025.
MSCI(W) 2803. FF -9. DF -100.
Morning all.

Didn't think it was that good to be posted twice!!!

Forecasts for crude oil through 2021 are set to average c.$65 ($60) peaking at $69 due to output cuts & global economic recovery. This should be supportive of Cpo this year just as Cif(R) hit $1115. Further ahead a consensus view sees Brent at $73 by Q3 2022 before slipping back slightly.

Its way too early to look that far ahead but cpo averaged c.$745 through 2020. So any number c.$900 should be beneficial to REAs ebita's, enabling debts to be reduced. Unfortunately volume output growth and 'tree age' have taken second place to debt repayments. Whether REA will ever become self financing is what investors worry about. In this era of low int rates wer'e struggling...

Goodness knows what will happen if the US start pushing up rates, inflation rises, the B40+ mandate takes more off Plantations, it won't be pretty but thats likely 2 years away....I hope. REA won't be debt free by then, nowhere near but much more manageable if we are still in this $900+ low int rate era and B40 is in its early stages, by that I mean gross deductions on palm are as now ($348).

Its worth remembering as Cpo nears doubling its low 2020 price of $573.... that would be 83% up, REA's sp has gained just 7 since then (15%). At the same time here are other palm share prices on 6/5/2020.

Anglo 465
Dkl 2•20
Mpe 590

Since the above:-

Anglo UP 28%
Dkl UP 125%
Mpe UP 4%
Rea UP 15%

Read what you will into the above. Anglo investors will be satisfied....ish, DKL over the moon but Mpe & Rea and particularly Mpe will be drowning their sorrows. Not sure why Mpe has been a worse performer than REA given their excellent nos? Maybe if we put these two underperformers together something good will come of it?

Forecasts for crude oil through 2021 are set to average c.$65 ($60) peaking at $69 due to output cuts & global economic recovery. This should be supportive of Cpo this year just as Cif(R) hit $1115. Further ahead a consensus view sees Brent at $73 by Q3 2022 before slipping back slightly.

Its way too early to look that far ahead but cpo averaged c.$745 through 2020. So any number c.$900 should be beneficial to REAs ebita's, enabling debts to be reduced. Unfortunately volume output growth and 'tree age' have taken second place to debt repayments. Whether REA will ever become self financing is what investors worry about. In this era of low int rates wer'e struggling...

Goodness knows what will happen if the US start pushing up rates, inflation rises, the B40+ mandate takes more off Plantations, it won't be pretty but thats likely 2 years away....I hope. REA won't be debt free by then, nowhere near but much more manageable if we are still in this $900+ low int rate era and B40 is in its early stages, by that I mean gross reductions on palm are as now ($348).

Its worth remembering as Cpo nears doubling its low 2020 price of $573.... that would be 83% up, REA's sp has gained just 7 since then (15%). At the same time here are other palm share prices as at 6/5/2020.

Anglo 465
Dkl 2•20
Mpe 590

Since the above:-

Anglo UP 28%
Dkl UP 125%
Mpe UP 4%
Rea UP 15%

Read what you will into the above. Anglo investors will be satisfied....ish, DKL over the moon but Mpe & Rea and particularly Mpe will be drowning their sorrows. Not sure why Mpe has been a worse performer than REA given their excellent nos? Maybe if we put these two underperformers together something good will come of it?