Member Info for JohnLewis79

Calls to strip disgraced financier Woodford of his CBE for services rendered will go unheeded, in fact quite the opposite he will be, has been showered with money by City mates and in todays ST gets a full page Bio.

He of course cost c.300,000 investors around £1•5bn thanx to his brilliantly astute management of their money. He & business partner Craig Newman denied themselves nothing pocketing almost £100 million during the Funds 5 year life. N I C E!

This enabled the pair to live Hollywood lifestyles, Woodford in Henley on Thames and in a luxurious retreat overlooking the Salcombe estuary in Devon. However when his main fund was wound up and he got his P45, life continued in much the same grand style. He sold his Cotswolds residence for a reported £12 million profit. The Henley property was sold along with another £5 million home in Reading. N I C E!

His new venture will include chums from his last investment empire (WIM) which include a stunt pilot, a navy reservist, a sales guru, a best mate and an investment expert. A pretty rum bunch if you ask me. He is now working with Acacia a US Co that bought a few of his life sciences companies from his failed fund.

I wonder whether Sphere Medical was one? The CE Marked Blood Gas device specialist which had millions of investors monies thrown at it (inc plenty of mine) couldn't raise two bob from the Administrators when W pulled the plug. Clifford Press, Acacia's CEO described W as "legendary" and a "truly exceptional manager. Several neighbours of his in Salcombe who invested with him beg to differ. Put me and several other South London investors on the list.

Does any of this cause reputational damage to the Industry? Well yes for a brief period and then soon forgotten, the money-go-round must continue to churn & burn. The likes of Woodford always survive to reinvent themselves as champions of the little man, only this time round the little mans savings will be beyond his reach.....

Rea 123 (56)
Cpo $645 ($1075)
Cif(R) $1107e

Oil $50
Gold $1591

Ftse 6581*
All 3674
DJ 25,409*
SP 2954
NS 8567

$1•277
€1•161
IDR 14,347

Anglo 530
Dkl 2•60
Mpe 664

* Ftse closed down 823 (11%) and the Dow slumped 3584 (12%) on the week due to global concerns on the rapid spread of the virus and many 'doomsday' newspaper articles that economies were headed into a great depression and stock prices would be decimated. The first case of covid in the UK was reported on Jan 31st (2 cases) and by 28/3 had risen to 11,658, (578) fatalities. The big slump in equities was still to come. I will add covid cases/deaths from 28/3 to TWTDTW as this was the first date i started recording the numbers.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,170,519 (122,705)*
Indonesia 1,329,074 (35,981)•

* 7434 cases
* 290 deaths
• 6208 cases
• 195 deaths

Rea 123 (56)
Cpo $667 ($1059)
Cif(R) $1105e

Oil $51
Gold $1656

Ftse 6796
All 3788
DJ 25,766
SP 2979
NS 8566

$1•288
€1•173
IDR 14,035

Anglo 540
Dkl 2•65
Mpe 708

Stocks slumped in London and NY. The ftse fell 3•5% (246) the DJI 4•4% (1191) and Nsdq slumped 4•6% (414).

Covid-19
06:00

UK 4,163,085 (122,415)*
Indonesia 1,322,866 (35,786)•

* 8523 cases
* 345 deaths
• 8232 cases
• 268 deaths

Another near 500 drop to add to the near 600 yesterday sent the Dow skidding to a loss of 562 on the week and clinging to a 1% gain on the year. However 22% up over 52wks and quarter to date up 326 (1%).

Advices were poor from the Far East where the Nikkei 225 tanked 1202 (4%) the Hang Seng dumped 1051(3%) and the SHCOMP fell 76 (2%). Europe and London followed the red flags in Asia the ftse closing 169 lower (2•5%). Comments from BOE Chief Economist Haldane that the inflationary "Tiger" had awoken had the 'sell' 'sell' phones ringing in brokers offices.

In NY traders and specialists were in no mood to pick up the sell tickets strewn around the Exchange floor most heading home before the mrkts closed. The Nsdq Comp down 64 at days low climbed to a 216 high but tailed off to end up 81. Financials & Energy led the mrkts lower however on a ytd basis they are up 29% and 56%, whereas the Nsdq 100 is u/c weighed down by rising Treasury yields and 'rotators.' The broader 500 which houses all the bigest cap stocks trades just 1•5% up but over 52 has gained 29%.

The resurgence in Gamestop fizzled out the shares tumbling from a $142 session high to close at $99 dragged down by traders and 'nutty' robinhood investors. Bitcoin the stock of the moment fell $5502 at NY close, taking Tesla ($670) down $92 on the week putting a big smile on shorters faces. Of course there's no correlation but Mr Musk associated his Co with Bitcoin so for now at least they are conjoined in investors minds. Popular counter Amazon lost $143, Zoom $24, Apple $7 but Netflix bucked the trend was unchanged.

Airlines had a good week, led by United & Southwest both up $4 on the week and Delta added 2%. Cruises did better, RC ($79) added $14, Carnival ($27) gained $2 and Norwegian ($30) added $3 over the week but bookings are still below average for the time of year.

On the NYSE volume was an average 15bn traded, decliners outpacing risers by 1•56:1 with 4 new 52s.
DJ -470 (30,932)
SP -18 (3811)
NS +81 (12,909)
R2 -5 (1279)
WTI $61•66
10ytb 1•415%
Morning all.

Cpo added $16 on the week to close at $1059 and averages $990 ($770) ytd or using Cif(R) prices $1105 which will put us into the next upper band which no doubt the Govt does, so adding $28pt to our costs. Of course there is a 3rd price that of 'achieved' prices in the local mrkt balanced with cif(R).
Inevitably these extra costs will impact the bottom line even if supposedly they give 'leg room' for plantation companies to make a reasonable return on cap employed or ebita or...who knows?

With output costs varying from c.$300- $400+ margins can be slim if like REA you unfortunately cannot reduce the cost base by volume increases in cpo as all surplus cash goes to reduce our debt burden. So that's a plus even if the bottom line is not.

London palm co prices were little moved on the week (see below) as were KLPI prices which travel 2% down ytd. Rea slipped to 56 on 128•9k traded, sells 73•3k & buys 55•6k (sells 1•32:1) double last weeks volume.

Anglo +2
Dkl -0•25
Mpe -8
Rea Prefs -2

Evening all.

Just 8681 traded yesterday thats more than d-t-d last year (0) and as its Friday so expect drip sells. Cpo is steady at c.$1050 and analysts are quietly revising Cpo prices upwards into H2 on a small increase in Malaysian output and inventories to remain 'tight' at below 1•5mt.

Just recently Malaysian inventory hit a 20 year low of 1•3mt. Malaysian benchmark cpo price trades at c.3635 ringgit ($900). Malaysia is expected to show a small output increase to 19•6mt (19•1mt) and Indonesia 45mt (42•3mt) for 2021.

Indonesia cpo exports are forecast to drop 10% as its new export levy structure makes Malaysian product more competitive. Ramping up B40 may take longer than thought despite crude in the $60s.

Rea 147 (56)
Cpo $670 ($1063)
Cif(R) $1105e

Oil $54
Gold $1639

Ftse 7042
All 3928
DJ 26,958
SP 3116
NS 8981

$ 1•285
€ 1•171
IDR 13,932

Anglo 551
Dkl 2•65
Mpe 689

Covid-19
04:30

UK 4,154,562 (122,070)*
Indonesia 1,314,634 (35,518)•

* 9985 cases
* 323 deaths
• 8493 cases
• 264 deaths

A sea of red numbers in Asia and Pan Pacifica did not bode well for opening nos in Europe & London but mrkts ignored advices and opened cautiously higher. Not the Nsdq Street which slumped 230 at the bell. FAANGs came under immediate pressure as Treasury yields rose to 1•60% prompting further switching from tech growth into better value cyclicals. Rising rates are usually a sign the economy is improving. Gold fell 2% to $1775.

Financials cont to benefit from 'rotators' and hit a new peak. Energy the bigest gainer among the major 500 sectors (Exxon up 36% ytd) has gained c.7% this week on hopes people will be driving and flying sooner than thought. WTI pushed ahead 36c to $64, (31% up ytd) despite talk that OPEC could raise output next month. The S&P 500 Growth sector has risen a paltry 2% hugely underperforming the Value Index which is up 9% mostly on post pandemic optimism.
Surprisingly Airlines & Cruises took a battering fallingl with the mrkt. United off 5% ($52) & American 4% ($21). Cruises were all in the red Carnival off $63 ($1582) & RC down $6 to $91.

Stocks in focus included Tesla down $25 to $717 on reports it would temporarily close down its assembly plant in Cali. After hours Tesla closed at $668 off $74 on the day and $200 on the month. Best Buy slid $11 to $103 topping 4Q estimates but had a poor holiday 'sales' season and see further weakness ahead on the Amazon / on line factor. Moderna reported it expected to post F/Y revenues of c.$18•4bn, shares up $3 to $146 for a $35 ytd gain.

Meanwhile the wkly job claims showed 730,000 Americans filed new claims (845,000 forecast) as infections cont to fall and vaccination programs cont to accelerate. The Fed's support for the worlds bigest economy is soothing investors nerves particularly over stretched valuations on the Street. Wall and Main poles apart.

Afternoon sellers took the 30 down 668 before 'dip' buyers appeared to steady the ship But that was short lived the Dow turning down just before the close. Don't forget 52wks ago the Dow traded at 18,214.

DJ -560 (31,402)
SP -96 (3829)
NS -474 (12,828)
R2 -40 (1284)
WTI $63•12
10ytb 1•470

Nos:- Oil $65•70. Vix 29.
Gold $1769. Copper $4•229.
Palm $1063. Silver $27•350.
$1•397. €1•149. IDR 14 250.
MSCI(W) 2760. FF -65. DF -16.
Morning all.

1 RDS(A+B). 109•9bn
2 Unilever. 103bn
3 AZ. 93•6bn
4 HSBC. 86•2bn
5 Rio Tinto. 78•7bn

469 Mpe. 331m
527 Anglo. 239m

669 Ixico. 41•6m
(Exit level)

REA would enter at 669 if the sp was 94•6p.

Yesterday's volumes in REA were back to the usual zzzzz numbers just 13,271 traded shares unmoved at 56. Cpo slipped $5 to $1055 (cpko $1400) which puts us in the $255/$116 band of taxes. Next hand in the pocket rises to $399 at cpo $1100. Hope we don't get there.

Thats a whopping 35% at source, we'll be lucky to have anything left over to pay the cleaners.

Rea 145 (55)
Cpo $670 ($1069)
Cif(R) $1105e

Oil $55
Gold $1647

Ftse 7018
All 3922
DJ 27,081
SP 3128
NS 8966

$1•300
€1•196
IDR 13,882

Anglo 550
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 680

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,144,577 (121,747)*
Indonesia 1,306,141 (35,254)•

* 9938 cases
* 442 deaths
• 7533 cases
• 240 deaths

Global fatalities 2,508,913.

Falls across Asia and Pan Pacifics pointed to a lower opening in the US. Policy tightening by Chinese Authorities is worrying investors who took the path of least resistance and sold the SHCOMP which fell 2%.
HK slumped nearly 1000 points (3%) when rumours circulated of a rise in stamp duty on shares, later denied and traders dumped the Nikkei shaving 440 off the 225.

US futures had called the Dow off 100 as European bourses ticked up a touch with London off just 15 at 10:00 am recovering from falls in Banks and exporters due to a strengthening GB£. As predicted the Dow fell its usual 200 at open only to swiftly recover 300 points before 11:00 am led by Boeing up $14 to $222 which despite the awful press this last year is up $10 ytd.

The Nsdq down 223 after the bell has recovered 180 of the slide as bottom fishers piled back in. The S&P 500 Growth index where all the big tech high flyers are housed has fallen 6% on valuation concerns. Apple for instance has fallen $20 this month on rotator switching and Tesla bounced $27 to $727 when Star investor Cathie Woods Ark Invest fund bght a further $171m of the companies stock. Tesla is thought to have made c.$1bn paper profit on its Bitcoin investment.
GamesStop returned to favour as shorts rushed to close positions, in frenzied trading the stock soared from $44 to close at $168 in after hours trading a stunning 282%. WallStreetBettors were back in the game.

On the economic front Powell said it could take 3 years for inflation to reach the Feds target of 2% thus leaving rates at historic lows for many months to come. This has boosted sales of single family houses up over 4% on December figs to c.923,000 annual rate. The median new house price increased by 5% to $346,000 in January due to mortgage rates increasing though they are low by historic standards. Retail sales are forecast to rise by between 6% & 8% to $4•3tn this year.

As London closed the DJI had jumped 362 off the days low point of 31,421 and the Nsdq is near breakeven for the session helped by Tesla ($738), Marriott International & Incyte though FAANGs were mixed the Nsdq Comp closed 107 better on the day. There was no stopping Mr Jones as buyers scrambled for stocks after lunch the 30 adding 210 a new record close.
On the NYSE risers outpaced losers by 2•10:1 on 13•7bn traded 102 new 52s. Vol was below the 20 day 16bn average.
DJ +425 (31,962) R
SP +44 (3925)
NS +107 (13,302)
R2 +35 (1324) R
WTI $63•30
10ytb 1•400%

Nos:- Oil $66•18. Vix 21.
Gold $1797. Copper $4•330.
Palm $1069. Silver $28•09.
$1•416. €1•163. IDR 14,084.
MSCI(W) 2802. FF +28.DF +116.
Morning all.

I can pull pints with the best of them!

Day 3 and volumes are considerably up in Realand. Not sure why interest has picked up as sellers cont to outpace buyers to the tune of 2:1 on c.98,000 trades wk-t-d. One thing I have learnt is buyers eventually disappear, sellers never do, ever, so Beware the high cost of a low price REA share.

On the TWTDTW you will notice that a year ago the sp ratio to cpo number was 5x compared to 20x today essentially the stock is 4x cheaper as cpo is 54% more expensive and the tree value (bofpc) has slipped from £20 to £5. Thats the mrkts version of value will always out, a new dynamic i have yet to work out but I'm getting there. Of course it will but not while I'm alive.

Outside of Dkl the other 2 palm stocks have been no great shakes ytd so perhaps its not an REA specific more a general malaise in the Asia palm sector. As more buys than sells do not equate to a rising sp, neither does higher commodity prices. A valuable lesson learned.

Rea 146 (54)
Cpo $682 ($1056)
Cif(R) $1120e

Oil $55
Gold $1675

Ftse 7157
All 3998
DJ 27,961
SP 3226
NS 9221

$1•292
€1•190
IDR 13,870

Anglo 550
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 684

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,134,639 (121,305)*
Indonesia 1,298,608 (35,014)•

* 8489 cases
* 548 deaths
• 9775 cases
• 323 deaths