Member Info for JohnLewis79

Solid start by Far Eastern and Pan Pacific mrkts this morning. Chinese investors were pleased to hear of no new covid cases reported for the first time in 2 months. Adding to the good mood the Securities Regulator green lit the merger between Shenzen Exch and the SME.
Hong-Kong cont to be the focus of mainland investors who rushed to buy HK$6•5bn of stock by lunch. The Hang Seng was up 500 in early dealings. Other Exchanges were all ahead towards close except S.K.

Tk +562
HK +115
SH +36
SHZ +27
SK -16
TAIX +96
BM +2
STI +22
JSX +59
ASX +40

Nos:- Oil $59•83. Vix 21.
Gold $1814. Copper $3•627.
Palm $995. Silver $27•110.
$1•373. €1•141. IDR 14,000.
MSCI(W) 2773. FF+39.DF +142.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,945,680 (112,465)*
Indonesia 1,157,837 (31,556)•

* 15,845 cases
* 373 deaths
• 10,827 cases
• 164 deaths

Rea 166 (57)
Cpo $752 ($990)
Cif(R) $1070e

Oil $55
Gold $1573

Ftse 7467
All 4151
DJ 29,103
SP 3328
NS 9521

$ 1•290
€ 1•178
IDR 13,675

Anglo 607
Dkl 2•90
Mpe 575

Covid-19
03:00

UK 3,929,835 (122,092)*
Indonesia 1,147,010 (31,393)•

* 18,262 cases
* 828 deaths
• 12,156 cases
• 191 deaths

1 Unilever £111•4 bn
2 RDSA+B £102 bn
3 AZ £98•3bn
4 HSBC £78bn
5 Rio T £69•7bn

454= Mpe £347m
519 Anglo £241m

674= I Spatial £31m

Rea 171 (57)
Cpo $751 ($990)
Cif(R) $1070e

Oil $55
Gold $1569

Ftse 7505
All 4171
DJ 29,380
SP 3346 R
NS 9572 R

$1•293
€1•177
IDR 13,620

Anglo 570
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 680

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,911,573 (111,264)*
Indonesia 1,134,854 (31,202)*

* 19,114 cases
* 1014 deaths
• 11,749 cases
• 201 deaths

GamesStop slammed into the buffers at $53 on Thursday. Friday they did a double quick about turn climbing to $83 as the shorts closed and a few optimistic punters climbed aboard hoping for another spectacular run. It was not to be the stock closed $13 better at $66 as some of the 'mad Redditt money' sought safer environs. Over on AMC it was less hectic the stock settled at $6•87 down 3% after $8•10. AMC opened last Monday at $17.

Back in the real world of stock fundamentals the 500 and Nsdq were on a run up to new record closes. The 500 gained c.5% on the week the Dow up 4% just missing out on a new high. Techs jumped 6% and the Small Caps rose 7%. Investors were pleased with solid earnings results from S&P constituents, vaccine roll outs, inoculation take-up's and the fiscal stimulus package being signed anytime soon according to Biden.

Nevertheless the wider mrkt has concerns over the wild gyrations in puffed up counters like GamesStop and AMC, which are having a detrimental effect on investors making them less risk averse. One wouldn't think so with the 500 standing at its highest forward Pe/r in 20 years. The drop in Vix the fear index to below 25 bodes well for stocks risk averse or not into 2021. If you fear the wild west reputation of equity mrkts, buy Treasuries.

Nike topped the big board along with Cisco, Dow Inc and among the losers Apple, UH, Boeing and Intel. On the economic front the trade deficit widened to the most in 12 years, the deficit increasing by c.18% to $678bn but well flagged.

Next week Disney, Cisco and GM report nos. On the NYSE risers outpaced losers by 3•3:1, 25 new 52s on average volumes (14bn). On the DJI, 21 gained and 9 lost ground.

DJ +92 (31,148)
SP +15 (3887) R
NS +43 (13,604) R
R2 +14 (1253) R
WTI $57•07
10ytb 1•169%

Nos:- Oil $59•62. Vix 21.
Gold $1815. Copper $3•640.
Palm $990/$1070. Silver $27.
$1•372. €1•140. IDR 14,030.
MSCI(W) 2758.
Morning all.

A good wk for cpo lovers closing up $18 to $990 on the week. To date palm is averaging $963 ($793) & ahead 1•2% ytd. None of this appreciated by REA, regardless of the palm price the shares tread water at 57, flat for the year. A good performance in one sense, terrible in another. Volume on the week was 274,000, of which 208,000 were sells which outpaced buys by 3•2 :1.

The KLPI index closed 43 up on the wk and ytd travels 162 down (2%). Best London performer if there was such a thing, step forward Mpe up 25.

It sure don't feel like 252•7k shares have been traded this week. Sellers outpacing buyers by 3:1 following the update on Monday. Not sure whether these were distressed sellers or not but at 55-6 ex costs I doubt many turning a coin. I'm pretty good at doing exactly that!

I have reread the update and tbh I haven't changed my mind. One doesn't expect 'pearls' to be divulged just the bare minimum, more a case of under promise, over deliver. Will REA do that in April?

While the sp languishes cpo continues to climb, cif(R) hit $1060 yesterday up fom c.$1025 in January. As you know cpo prices tumbled from Feb average of $714 to the low $610 average for May.

Q1(2020) averaged c.$693 and Q2 c.$664 so hopefully if current levels of palm prices are around these levels at the HY, REA should post some really good nos, they won't have much to beat as 'achieved' prices averaged $527 so worst way we should av $700. I hope that isn't tempting fate.....

HY 2020
REV $62m
PT(L) $7m
OER 22•9
NAV 432p

Rea 171 (58)
Cpo $764 ($982)
Cif(R) $1080e

Oil $56
Gold $1562

Ftse 7482
All 4159
DJ 29,291
SP 3335
NS 9509

$ 1•306
€ 1•18

Anglo 544
Dkl 2•90
Mpe 680

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,892,459 (110,250)*
Indonesia 1,123,105 (31,001)•

* 20,634 cases
* 915 deaths
• 11,434 cases
• 231 deaths

US mrkts ignored the poor performance of Asian equities overnight and powered up extending gains of earlier in the week. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 advanced. Nothing of major importance could account for the positive start. Vaccine roll outs are being speeded up by the Govt by distributing directly to Pharmacies and excellent results from EBay & PayPal due to a pandemic driven surge in on line shopping over the holiday season pleased investors. Ebay rose $4 to $62 & Pay Pal $13 to $263.
Damping sentiment was news that Clover Health Investments had allegedly mislead investors about critical aspects of its business and that it was being investigated by the DOJ sent investors rushing to sell. Shares tumbled 10% to $12 following Hindenburg Research accusations. HR is a well known short seller.

Non farm productivity in Q4 fell by the most since 1981 as worker output slipped 5%. Initial jobless claims came in at 779,000 (812,000) better than forecast as layoffs and job losses steadied. The monthly employment report due out on Friday is expecting a 50,000 jump on payrolls in Jan after a 142,000 slump in Dec.

Companies in focus included Qualcomm ($148) which fell 9% after the chip maker said supply constraints contributed to Q1 sales missing targets. GM reported yesterday it had to close a number of its plants through lack of vital chips used in its cars being unavailable due to a switch in production to mobiles and laptops in S.Korea due to auto sales slumping.

Videogame retailer GamesStop was under the cosh at the bell as sellers dumped stock in the rush to get out, shares down $30 to $63 in early dealings. Treasury Sec Yellen said the regulators will be looking into the retail frenzy of WallStreetBets and Redditt media chat responsible for the fracas of recent days. There was no respite for GS holders hoping for a turnaround, the stock just carried on dropping closing at $53, down $42 on the session. AMC fell 21% to $7. The shorts are winning the return fight.

As London closed the Dow was up 250 having briefly crossed the 31,000 led by gains in Amex, Visa, Cisco & Boeing, only 3 stocks in the red, Msoft, Merck & UH. By close all 3 major indexes had posted record closes. The Dow has put on 1073 points (4%) in Feb to date the Nsdq Comp 636 (5%) and Londons ftse 1•5%.

DJ +332 (31,056) R
SP +42 (3872) R
NS +159 (13,561) R
R2 +21 (1238) R52
WTI $56•59
10ytb 1•134%

Nos:- Oil $59•23. Vix 21•77.
Gold $1795. Copper $3•559.
Palm $ 982. Silver $26•350.
$1•367. €1•144. MSCI(W)2758
FF +1. DF +48.
Morning all.

Rea 171 (58)
Cpo $748 ($972)
Cif(R) $1060e

Oil $55
Gold $1573

Ftse 7440
All 4137
DJ 28,808
SP 3298
NS 9468

$1•304
€1•181
IDR 13,710

Anglo 546
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 680

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,871,825 (109,335)*
Indonesia 1,111,671 (30,770)•

* 19,202 cases
* 1322 deaths
• 11,984 cases
• 189 deaths

Investors decided to ride out the opening exchanges noting a none too positive performance from Far Eastern Exchanges and a flat London mrkt. Given the Dow had put on 705 on the previous 2 sessions a bout of profit taking was a certainty. At the bell the 30 slipped 100 before bouncing back as investors and traders bought the dips.
GamesStop rose in first dealings hitting $112 before running into sellers. There is very little momentum the money has left....the stock flounders on lack of volume and interest. Fun while it lasted but the mrkt has other fish to fry. At Close the stock hit the low of the day $88. The other retail-trader fave, AMC turned up 14% at close.

As London closed the DJI was yoyoing around the breakeven line of 30,690. Early movers inc Boeing up at $205, Msoft $243 & Chevron $89. Amgen lost $7 to $233 propping up the losers which inc Cat, UH Group and J&J. US crude stockpiles fell last wk to 476 mboe the lowest inventory since March. Brent futures gained $1•22 ($59) and the 10ytb put on 2 basis to 1•1306%. Chevron & Exxon both up $2 to $89 & $47 respectively. Crude cont its strong advance, Brent up 13% and WTI up 15% ytd.

There was encouraging news on the economy as the Services Sector activity rose to its highest level in 2 years. The ADP reported 174,000 new jobs were added in Jan. Sectors hiring included Hotels & Leisure up 35,000, Construction 18,000 and Goods Producers 19,000.
As the roll out continues inoculations are running at a disappointing 200,000 a day but Airlines and Cruise stocks were in demand, American the most leveraged of US carriers launched a $1bn stock sale to boost liquidity after being mentioned on WallStreetBets last week. However it warned workers that 14,000 jobs are at risk when the aid money runs out in April. Stock rose 6% to $18 and 13% ytd.

On the NYSE risers outpaced decliners by 1•1:1 with 7 new 52s on c.14bn traded. At Close.

DJ +36 (30,724) R
SP +4 (3830) R
NS -53 (13,402)
R2 +6 (1218)
WTI $56•06
10ytb 1•147%

Nos:- Oil $58•77. Vix 22•9.
Gold $1823. Copper $3•549.
Palm $973. Silver $26•555.
$1•361.€1•132. IDR 14,040.
MSCI(W) 2738. FF +6. DF +32
Morning all.

Rea 171 (58)
Cpo $728.($971)
Cif(R) $1055e

Oil $55
Gold $1582

Ftse 7326
All 4076
DJ 28,400
SP 3249
NS 9273

$1•299
€1•174
IDR 13,742

Anglo 550
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,852,623 (108,013)*
Indonesia 1,099,687 (30,581)•

* 16,840 cases
* 1449 deaths
• 10,379 cases
• 304 deaths

Another record busting day on the Street of Dreams as stocks ended in record territory but well off intraday highs. Investors were bouyed by advances in Asia, Europe and London. Roll out of inoculations is gathering pace and infections fell for the 3rd successive week. Bidens relief package looks like being passed in Congress, oiling the wheels of the economy is progressing if not quite at the pace hoped for.

Buyers were noted for Amazon and Google ahead of Q4 nos but got a shock when it was reported that Bezos was stepping down to exec chairman in Q3 to be replaced by Andy Jassy the Web Services head. Amazon finished $47 better at $3390 after busting forecasts, sales up 38% to $283bn profits $21•3 bn. Amazon a garage start up was founded by Bezos 30 years ago.

Google up 26% in the regular session rocketed up $145 after hours as the Co reported revenues of $182bn and net income of $11•25bn beating expectations as ad revenue climbed and U Tube increased revs by 46% in Q4. The stock finished at a record $2064. Exxon Mobile reported a loss for the first time as a Public Co, revs down 28% & net income down 121%, shares up $1 at $46. Exxon the longest standing member of the DJ I was ignominiously relegated last year after 92 years in the top index replaced by Salesforce a comparative newcomer.
Pfizer and Raytheon were given their marching orders as well.

Redditt and WallStreetBets punters were rushing for the exits as the stock was hit by a wave of desperate sellers. The madness of betting against shorted stocks looks like fizzling out. GS plunged to $85 after hours a 65% fall on the session, 5 days ago GS hit $482. AMC which owns the Odeon Cinema chain slumped 44% to $7•54 and others saw similar treatment. Many first time punters watching the price disappear before their eyes left bloodied and poorer. You don't ucfk with the big boys on the Street.

On the NYSE volume hit 14•72bn well down on recent nos, risers led fallers by 2•93:1 with 16 new 52s.
DJ +476 (30,687) R
SP +52 (3826) R
NS +207 (13,456) R
R2 +2 (1212)
WTI $55•02
10 y/tb 1•112%

Nos:- Oil $57•71. Vix 26.
Gokd $1842. Copper $3•514.
Palm $970. Silver $27•02.
$1•367. €1•135. IDR 14,009.
MSCI(W) 2732. FF +27. DF +81.
Morning all.

Any merger or take over hopes for REA are disappearing into the mists. Could be they are arguing over the take out price of 6 a tree (£28m/71p) after the less than positive update.
With lower and no new/ ext plantings coming on stream output will stagnate into the next 5 years and that's fatal for an estate with land available. Could be they are halfway to selling the Co and all spend has been stopped.

Well, I can dream can't I? I'd like 10 a tree but I ain't gonna get that am I?