Member Info for JohnLewis79

Quite a few investors think the Co are going to pull a fast one and go for a raise to accompany the TU or soon thereafter. Funds may be used to retire some of the notes, reduce Bank borrowings, pay the cleaners, maybe the prefs, def not the ords ahead of Cpo heading sub $800 in the year.

I suspect pis investors will not be invited to participate in any funding round. Most would politely decline on grounds of taking the 'Fifth'. I know i would.

So, might be a good idea to allay pis investor fears (the mrkt nudge, nudge, already knows) by saying the company is fully funded through 2021. Unfortunately that won't happen. You should not be invested here if you think REA will change a habit of a lifetime and forego borrowing to get into even more trouble than they are already. Its in the DNA of REA.

Some investors here have had a total exchange blood transfusion when they went into shock due the collapse of the sp last year. The Co should follow investors example it might just give it a new lease of life. I have already given enough of my blood!

More bad rap for the plantation and coal industries which have been directly linked to the flooding in South Kalimantan. Heavy rains have caused 112,000 people to be displaced with 21 losing their lives as the Barito River and others broke their Banks. Its estimated that 200,000 ha have been flooded.

An area twice the size of London (157kha) and Los Angeles (132kha) have been cleared in the past 10 years in the watershed area of the Barito River, S.Kalimantan to establish palm oil estates & coal mines. The area once consisted of 50% primary, secondary forest and scrubland.
Miners abandoned over 800 pits after they finished in the area and now have 177 concessions dotted throughout the flooded districts. Environmentalists say the rapid loss of forest in the region contributed to the scale of flooding as trees hold the soil in place and prevent erosion. Illegal logging is commonplace with local Govts turning a blind eye.

A moratorium on all new palm and mining licences must be enacted immediately in Kalimantan where some districts have seen 70% of their forest cover disappear.

Rea 179 (58)
Cpo $795 ($918)
Cif(R) $990e

Oil $62
Gold $1564

Ftse 7508
All 4170
DJ 29,160
SP 3326
NS 9402

$ 1•310
€ 1•187
IDR 13,586

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•05
Mpe 688

Covid-19
06:00

UK 3,583,907 (95,981)*
Indonesia 965,283 (27,453)•

* 40,261 cases
* 1401 deaths
• 13,632 cases
• 250 deaths

R2 (small caps) kept the record run going on Friday closing at 1232 a 52wk high but some way off an historic record (1705). The other 3 indexes notched gains on the week but 'Big Blue' and a 'Big Tech' disappointed the mrkt after posting Q nos. IBM ($119) fell 10% hit by a rare miss on revs from its software unit and Intel ($57) slumped 9% on poor outlook comments from new CEO Gelsinger. Both rooted at the bottom of the big board.

However the Nsdq 100 put on 560 points on the week a 4% gain its best wkly since Nov 6th. Investors continue to shun Energy & Financials the worst performers among the S&P eleven sectors. Confidence in the cyclicals wavers as investor sentiment is wrong footed by the odd surprising result on the economy. Assurances they felt about the virus, roll out of vaccines or the reopening of the economy took a hit when Biden said the economic crisis was deepening just as data from the Manufacturing Sector showed the sector surged to its highest level in 13 years.
Confounding as these two are the mrkt continues to be priced to perfection siding on the view that things can only get better while things get worser (worst).

Punter faves marked time. Tesla little changed at ($847), Zoom ($383) unmoved and Flix ($565) and Amazon ($3293) lost $15 each. Apple ($139) and Msoft ($226) added $2 & $1 respectively. Boeing $206 gained on the week but is 36% down over 52 and RR who get paid on flying hours lost $2 to $102. American, United et al, were at the ramp awaiting take off clearance and Cruise ships were undergoing repairs in Dock.

On the NYSE decliners and gainers were 1:1 on 12•79bn with 16 new 52s no new lows on the 500.
DJ -179 (30,997)
SP -12 (3841)
NS -39 (13,360)
R2 +15 (1232)
WTI $51•98
10ytb 1•086%

Nos: Oil $55•21. Vix 22.
Gold $1855. Copper $3•619.
Palm $918. $1•368. €1•124.
IDR 14,035. MSCI(W) 2756.
Morning all

Cpo fell $25 on the week its first red close since wk 48. To date its running at an average of $963 ytd ($816).
KLPI came off 142 and ytd is off 1% v cpo up 18%. London palms on wk as below:

Anglo -38
Dkl + 0•30
Mpe -30
Rea -1
Prefs -1

The bare nos in 2019 were impacted by all the stuff pis don't want to hear about. Total revs were $125m and down the page we land up posting a PT loss of $44m.
So, 2020 top line nos should beat last years perhaps by as much as $35m to $160m but its what happens in lines 2 through 14 that counts.

In 2019 there were some nasties lurking further down the page which tanked the nos. Cost of sales rose to $122m (+$22m) mainly due to a swing in stock movements. A negative FX charge of $9m, a $4m dep charge and $3•3m impairment loss added to the woes, not to mention int rate expenses.

Some of the above will reoccur this is REA afterall but hopefully by not as much. But profits? Its likely a small one, but will be a close run thing given the increase in cpo only really took off in H2 and then only in Q4 which averaged c.$641. This year should if cpo can average in the $800s top 2020 nos which averaged c.$743.

But can the company turn this into a bottom line profit? Hardman forecast a $11m profit after paying the cleaners for 2020 and that was when cpo was on the floor. Last year was the start of the recovery this year REA should motor ahead as long as....and we know to take any forecasts with a pinch of salt.

Rea 179 (56)
Cpo $804 ($917)
Cif(R) 980e

Oil $63
Gold $1556

Ftse 7572
All 4207
DJ 29,186
SP 3322
NS 9384

$1•313
€1•185
IDR 13,644

Anglo 588
Dkl 3•25
Mpe 696

Covid-19
06:00

UK 3,543,646 (94,580)*
Indonesia 951,651 (27,203)•

* 37,892 cases
* 1290 deaths
• 11,703 cases
• 346 deaths

Day 2, the day after the Lord Mayor's Ball saw Wall St take a breather. New jobless claims topped 900,000 for the second straight week as infection and fatality nos continue to impact a weakening labour mrkt. Yet there were some early signs of an upturn in the economy when Housing starts in Dec rose 6% to 1•7m as demand for new homes outpaced supply.

Vaccine roll outs continue a'pace but they fell well short of the 20m target by 2020, only 3m have been inoculated to date. Counties and hospitals have taken different approaches to the delivery, some on a first come first served basis, caused confusion, frustration, long queues and jammed phones lines. Many returned home. Like the roll out It won't be all plain sailing for Bidens huge stimulus package. Moderate Democrats and Republicans balk at the massive spend to every part of the economy. I don't think JB is going to get a 'pass' on this, new boy or not.

Tech heavyweights were back in favour buyers came for Google, Apple and Amazon put on $53 to $3317 as BOA upped its target price to $4000 saying they expect the 'cloud' business to be the driver of growth this year. Zoom ($377) continued to see sellers and Tesla slipped to $845. Netflix were trimmed $6 to $573 terrific as 2021 was for holders, this year the stock is up a modest $58 in 'flix terms.'

Other stocks in focus included Ford Motor after a note from Deutsche Bank sent the stock up 8% to $12. Ford is winding down its manufacturing in Brazil with a loss of 5000 jobs.
Ford has been making cars in Brazil for 100 years. United Airlines fell 6% to $43 after posting a 4th straight Q loss. The Co is aiming to trim $2bn in cost savings through 2022.
Financials, Energy and Industrials were all lower, these have been the main drivers of the S&Ps 14% rally since the Nov 3 election and some rotation into tech among pis was reported.

Earnings on the 500 are forecast to rise 24% this year after a 15% loss in 2020. A few analysts are pricing the 500 at 4100 an upside of 6% mainly due to Yellen insisting stimulus monies be targeted at job creation and not a bandaid job on broken down firms. Equitiy nos fizzled out at close but the 500 and Nsdq posted new record highs.

On the NYSE 13•3bn changed hands sellers the upper hand by 1•49:1, with
24 new 52s.
DJ -12(31,176)
SP +1 (3853)
NS +108 (13,405)
R2 -13 (1216)
WTI $52•46
10ytb 1•112%

Nos: Oil $55•47. Vix 22.
Gold $1862. Copper $3•620.
Palm $917. $1•371. €1•126.
IDR 14,048. MSCI(W) 2766.
FF -8. DF -80.
Morning all.

Given were in the same business as Anglo & Mpe we expect revs if nothing else to be materially up at YE. Strange then so many are selling so I think they like me don't expect a rerate here anytime soon.

Other than that I can't think of any other sensible reason to be selling if your a holder of a few months. Quick buck merchants yes, but your in the wrong share imo. Try some of the Aim Miners for volume and volatility. Here its Chinese water torture that will kill you not a fast moving spec-stock, well that's how I see it.

Agree, rugs as I always say trades up or down, buys or sells are indicative only. I know they should mean something but with these jobbers you can't really tell can you? I doubt the machines will be bothered with us.

At half time so to speak, lets see if any buyers return to redress the imbalance in the buy v sell ratio. Currently sells outpacing buys by nearly 6:1 wk-t-d.

Rea 179 (55)
Cpo $793 ($936)
Cif(R) $990(e)

Ftse 7601
All 4223
DJ 29196
SP 3321
NS 9371

Oil $65
Gold $1557

$1•305
€1•176

Anglo 560
Dkl 3•40
Mpe 700

Covid-19
03:30

UK 3,505,754 (93,290)*
Indonesia 939,948 (26,857)•

* 38,905 cases
* 1820 deaths
• 12,568 cases
• 267 deaths

Well, that was the day that was, the JB day. Trump left in a huff to Mar a Lago as all the great and good assembled on the Capitol Steps to crown Joe B. Back where Joe P works stocks got off to a 200+ jump as the threatened demos never materialised. Twenty five thousand troops saw to that by surrounding Washington. Trouble makers we're warned, stay away or else.

Given a clear run Biden stocks have surged c.13% since election day making it the best performance for a new President in modern history, beating JFKs 8% welcome from the 'Street' back in the mists of time.

First day of Trump Presidency.
DJ +95 (19,827)
SP +8 (2271)
First day of Biden Presidency.
DJ +258
SP +53
You lose again Trump.

All 4 of the US major indexes posted record highs by mid session as JB was preparing to take up the Presidential seal of Office. He has wasted no time in taking over fom Trump signing a whole raft of exec orders on the economy, climate change, rejoining the Paris Accord and the WHO, taking down 'the Wall' and doubling the min wage to $15 which might be fine in Manhattan but for a restaurant in Boise, Idaho? That could be curtains.

The Banks earnings season ended with M.Stanley blowing past Walls estimates, posting a $11bn ($9bn) profit for the year. Pis faves were mixed, Tesla inched up to $850 but Zooms run ended on profit taking at ($382) but.........Netflix outshone everyone jumping $85 to $586 a 17% advance on further consideration of its dominance in the streaming world (204m subscribers) helped by latest blockbuster LUPIN. The Co will fund future operations out of retained earnings and will cease borrowings.

Airlines and Hotels missed out on the euphoria only Jet Blue up 4% and Wynn 3% moved in the right direction. Cruises were moored except Norwegian down 5% which has slumped from $32 to $7 last 6 months. Techs advanced Msoft ($224) up $8 and Apple ($132) up $4 were 1&2 on the big board. Other FAANGs not to be outdone saw Amazon jump $143 to $3263 & Google $96 to $1880. The FAANG +TM index gained c.5%
Its been 6 months or so since I posted on Hertz & Luckin Coffee Inc. Both were staple fodder in the basket case category for WSJ journos to trash. So I thought I'd have a look see how they have been doing. Hertz trades at a buck 20 so has gone nowhere slowly but Luckin has surged 250% to $9•50 quickly. I gave neither a prayer of surviving.

On the NYSE risers outpaced decliners by 2•02:1 with 54 new 52s, no new lows on 13•7bn traded.
DJ +258 (31,188) (R)
SP +53 (3852) (R)
NS +300 (13,296) (R)
R2 +6 (1230) (R)

Nos: Oil $55•90. Vix 22.
Gold $1872. Copper $3•663.
Palm $932. $1•368. €1•128.
IDR 14,018. MSCI(W) 2761.
FF+35. DF+65.
Morning all.

If any of you guys know this bloke Louis Navallier can you ask him to stop writing to me 5 times a day. Thanx.

The trashing of Trump is in full swing on once owned Dirty Digger news platforms while hailing JB as the second JC saviour of mankind and the US of A.

He might be but let the poor man get his feet under the Oval Office desk. I wonder whether T left B a congratulatory note in a desk drawer, a tradition going back 30 years? Outside of a nasty smell I very much doubt it. He hasn't even the good grace to attend today's inauguration, preferring to be on the first tee at his local Golf Club.

A technical bottoming out may be in progress......Traders look for a steady increase in cpo during Feb on supply/demand fundamentals as lower cash prices in January will see a recovery in shipments for Feb supporting prices in the RM 3100- 3300 ($775- $825) band.

Until latest export nos are released expect increased volatility in the cash market and the discount between soy and palm ranging from $50 to $100 at times this month. Latest cpo $912.

Palm has lost 10% since hitting 4 figs ($1000) yet crude has risen 3% to $56•20. They don't always align in price movement. Good for the Indonesian Govt mind!

Is Cpo headed to sub $900 today? Its fallen $100 since Jan 6th, noone saw that coming just as noone saw the huge increase from sub $500 backaways.
Traders may decide the fall has been too steep and too fast but given all the bad vibes surrounding palm I wouldn't bet the house on it.