Member Info for JohnLewis79

Sooner or later US equities are going to come back to earth, hopefully without too much of a bump. Tesla the bigest, least profitable company in history is ripe for taking down, trading on irrational exuberance investors will soon seek more reliable boring bricks and mortar stocks where a poor Q won't tank the stock price or the CEO going off piste knocks a $100 off.

We're in a mrkt of frothy valuations, take some new IPOs. Moonpig (greetings cards) for instance coming to mrkt with a £1bn price tag with sales of £193m. Or Roblox a video game maker seeking a valuation of $8bn or Checkout value $13bn, sales just over £100m. Who in their right mind would commit their hard earned to such companies? The 'juice' already extracted by Insiders and Merchant Banks. Not me for sure.

The Democrats are committed to more spending this year, borrowing at virtually zero cost sending cheques ($2000) to households to go out and spend, which might end up in the real economy and also might lead to inflation rising. The very rich the high earners and companies will surely end up paying via higher taxes. With the Fed deficit near $3•3tn somethings gotta give. The smart people with money are cashing out of this 'value bubble.' Whose gonna be right,
rates lower for much longer or inflation picking up much sooner? Both can't be right.... can they?

I don't know if the palm sector is the safest place to be in so far as any asset outside of Gilts can be classed as safe.
Palm companies sp's say no but I don't believe in the current values or that's what I keep telling myself.
What keeps me here is the demand side, as in the years ahead with global population increasing alarmingly, palm strikes me as a safer bet than trying to pick the latest hot tech stock and let's face it there's not any real competition (maybe soy but the drawbacks are obvious) and importantly I'm not asking myself 'can it last?'

I'm hoping the tortoise will still be here while the hare has exhausted himself. I'm planning on sticking around for many more years or at least until REA hit 75.

Indonesian State Oil & Gas Co said it has finished its second test round of 100% biodiesel using palm oil. The test run for 'green' diesel (D100) started in the Cilacap refinery on Jan 9th and was completed on the 16th. In tandem it also continued its production of 'green' AVTUR jet fuel made of palm oil begun in late Dec. A spokesperson said the trials will continue until the [products] are ready and safe for use by the public.Output initially is forecast at 3000 bpd rising to 6000 bpd at Cilacap. Last year the blend B30 saved the country c.$2•66bn in foreign exchange reserves. There is an important distinction between the B30/40 and D100 in that the former (lower blends) use FAME (fatty acid methyl ester)refined, bleached, deodorised palm oil and the 'green' jet fuel version uses refined bleached, deodorised palm kernel oil.The recent fall in cpo prices cif (r) at $990 will have pleased the Govt making the blend on par to the cheaper gasoil. The Govt currently subsidise the diff between the two at considerable cost borne in large part by the taxes levied on the Palm Companies.

Rea 179 (59)
Cpo $787 ($943)
Cif(R) $990

Oil $64
Gold $1577

Ftse 7675 (H)
All 4258
DJ 29,348 (R)
SP 3330 (R)
NS 9389 (R)

$1•299
€1•173
IDR 13,637

Anglo 560
Dkl 3•40
Mpe 722

Covid-19
04:30

UK 3,357,361 (88,590)*
Indonesia 896,642 (25,767)•

* 41,342 cases
* 1295 deaths
• 14,224 cases
• 283 deaths

Since lockdown (2) on Dec 16th, the UK daily averages as below.

44,838 cases
733 deaths
1564 High (14/1)
210 Low (27/12)

c.6,300 sells v c.3,800 buys shares up 27 that's the stock to be in...Mpe the mrkt leader.

Rea 179 (58)
Cpo $797 ($943)
Cif(R) $1020-$1040

Oil $65
Gold $1552

Ftse 7610
All 4223
DJ 29,298 (R)
SP 3317 (R)
NS 9357 (R)
R2 1705 (R)

$1•307
€1•174
IDR 13,630

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•40
Mpe 716

Covid-19
05:30

UK 3,316,019 (87,295)*
Indonesia 882,418 (25,484)•

* 55,761 cases
* 1280 deaths
• 12,812 cases
• 238 deaths

USA (24,102,429) (401,856)

Very much a 'Sell the News' day by investors battered by the virus and chaotic roll out of vaccines. Bidens first 100 days will be judged on the effectiveness of the roll out towards 100m inoculations. Biden said he "will manage the hell out of it"

Walls main indexes were weighed down by Banks and Energy. Exxon Mobil suffered as the Sec & Exch Comm probed a whistle-blowers contention that the Co had overvalued assets in the shale Permian Basin, shares off 5% to $48. Banks despite beating 4 Q profit expectations fell on profit taking after a great H2 run. JPMC beat estimates but Citi and Wells Fargo missed consensus, Wells Fargo fell 8% to $32 on a 4% increase in net income, Citi ($64) fell 7%. All the banks intend to start buybacks in Q1 having released over $5bn of loan loss reserves in a sign of their optimism for the economy and reflecting clients will make good on debts.

US retail sales a big driver for the economy fell in December confirming the economy is losing momentum. Sales were down 0•7% as the virus cut spending on leisure, restaurants and reduced traffic at shopping Malls.

Tesla ran into sellers slipping $21 to $823, however Tesla's love affair with China continues, they have extracted perks from the Govt no other Co can hope to get, tax breaks, cheap loans and importantly permission to fully own their China operations. Musk is Xi Jinpings favourite capitalist. But with relations mostly fractious between the two countries, Musk is in an unenviable position trying to straddle the Beijing, Washington gap.

Some big name stocks report next week.
Monday: Closed (ML King day).
Tuesday: GS, BOA, Netflix.
Wed: United Air, UH, P&G, MS.
Thur: IBM, Intel.
DJ -177 (30,814)
SP -27 (3768)
NS -95 (12,804)
R2 -21 (1212)
WTI $52•04
10ytb 1•090%

Nos: Oil $55•11. Vix 24.
Gold $1831. Copper $3•601.
Palm $943. $1•359. €1•124.
IDR 14,020. MSCI(W) 2738.
Morning all.

Not the best of weeks for palm oil falling $49 to $943. Ytd to average still considerably up on last year $979 v $816. KLPI slipped to 7365 still slightly ahead on the year by 62 points. Cif (R) anywhere between $1020 & $1040.

REA added 2 on pretty good volumes a total of 259k traded, sells 149k, buys 110k. Sells edging it by 1•35:1.
Other palms were mixed, Mpe (690) stood out gaining 25 today & 20 on the week, Anglo put on 16 and Dkl lost 0•15p.
Evening all have a good wk/end if possible.

Cpo continues to drift lower which looks to me to be a correction to the stellar rise in December. The March contract expires today.
Worries over the fall in exports and weakness in soy has prompted the plunge now sub $940 and could hit $880 next stop which would take the price to just above those of mid January last.

Asia is broadly lower in afternoon trading responding to the late downturn in NY. Chinas blue chips fell c.1% on worries over infection cases rising to their highest level in 10 months. Currently c.28m people are under lockdown restrictions.

Tokyo led the sell off losing 179 but China A+B are slightly up before close along with Singapore's ST Index.

Hi caravanboy i see your invested in Panthera Resources. I was tipped this by a friend sometime ago at c.30 in Nov from memory but didn't do anything about it as I was a bit strapped for cash at the time and knew little about the sector.
Its on my 'active' list should REA cont to disappoint after the TU in Feb.

Cpo continues to tank off $15 to $942. Levy at this price set at $195+$52, net $673 at top of band. Thats getting too close for comfort for the bigger plantations with thousands of employed.
Next band $851-$901, net at top of band $672.

Rea 170 (58)
Cpo $814 ($945)

Oil $64
Gold $1555

Ftse 7643
All 4238
DJ 29,030 (R)
SP 3289 (R)
NS 9259 (R)

$1•303
€1•168
IDR 13,665

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•40
Mpe 720

Covid-19
04:30

UK 3,260,258 (86,015)*
Indonesia 869,600 (25,246)•

* 48,682 cases
* 1248 deaths
• 11,557 cases
• 295 deaths

Global fatalities 2,002,407.

Here we go again the Dow jumps 140 at the bell thanx to a 60 bump from Boeing and J&J. Against a background full of negative headlines Wall continues to surprise. Troops massing in Washington ahead of the wk/end, the Capital in lockdown mode, infections out of control and the grim jobless numbers nothing worries the Street. Talk about stocks climbing a wall of worry its more like El Capitan's 3000 foot precipice in Cali!

Biden is expected to address Democrats at Wilmington, Delaware on Thursday, where he will expand and direct the stimulus package toward American families first. The package is thought to be c.$1•9tn to buttress the economy until a mass roll out of the vaccine can be completed.
The weekly jobless report indicated 180,000 more signed on for benefits than was forecast taking the weeks total to 965,000 the highest level since August. With Trump out of the picture and Republicans in sync with his initial plans for the economy his 100 day start at the Oval Office will have a good beginning.

Stocks in focus included Tesla which rec'd a letter from the Nat Highway Traffic Safety Board to recall 158,000 early Model X units due to a poss defective rear view camera. Stock price didn't blink, rose $11 to $851 at lunch. Google closed down $14 at $1732, after completing the acquisition of fitness firm Fitbit. Fitbug the UK equivalent went bust a few years ago taking £1000 of my money with it.
Acacia Comm jumped $28 to $114 after Cisco amended its original deal to an increased all cash offer of $115. Delta popped $2 to $42 as daily cash burn of $12m has dropped 50% from Q3. CEO forecasts an industry wide turnaround this year.

Interest in Zoom has revived the stock surging $23 to $387. In a surprise move Zoom announced it plans to increase the offer of share sales to 5•1m (1•6% dilutive) citing higher demand from investors. This is the equivalent of pricing an RI above the current mrkt price and getting away with it. Its estimated that 70-100m Americans have used Zoom but only 20m pay for their services on its platform. Priority No 1 will be to convert many of those to become paying customers. Zoom stock is well down on its '20 high of 559. Very much a growth stock and like Tesla has strong pis followers.

On the NYSE 14•4bn shares were traded, 49 new 52s, no lows on the 500. Buys out pacing sells 2•24:1.
DJ -68 (30,992)
SP -14 (3796)
NS -75 (12,899)
R2 +28 (1233) R
WTI $53•56
10ytb 1•106%

Nos: Oil $56•26. Vix 23.
Gold $1852. Copper $3•663.
Palm $962. $1•368. €1•126.
IDR 14,038. MSCI(W) 2738.
FF -10. DF -113.
Morning all.

We're in a catch 22 situation, cpo price rises, taxes rise. Cpo prices fall, tax & levy likely do not. Rupiah goes the wrong way v the USD costs us more in reducing debt. If the weather turns nasty, lower yields and output which puts pressure on margins etc, etc...

Its a wonder anyone bothers to cultivate palm at all. All the UK plantation companies face the same problem. Its long overdue a strategic alliance of sorts takes place. The Indonesian Govt are not in the business of doing foreign owned companies any favours so best we do them ourselves.
As long as competing egos can be left at the Board Room door the future viability of UK palm can be preserved for the future as long as the sum of all parts exceeds that of.....

Trouble is in a 'beauty' parade
REA will be the ugly ducking at the ball and unlikely to attract any partners. Perhaps an Indonesian outfit could be interested but at nothing like the prices touted around like $18,000 planted ha. That may look a great headline but in reality much more like $8000-$10,000 on a good day and likely at the lower price due to our Estate average age of 15 years.

I have given up calculating Fair Value because I don't believe such a thing exists. REA is proof positive of that surely? Factor in we are in the hands of Indonesian Bankers and a jolly good customer we are only clouds the picture further in my view.

Strong sell indicators sent traders hitting the sell buttons, cpo falling $24 to $952. Cif (R) $1032. Nothing unusual about the drop as palm looked overbought. A drop to $850 might indicate trouble ahead.

Indonesia South East Asia's largest economy posted a trade surplus for the 8th straight month and have seen exports rebounding in the past few months.
December nos rose by 6% due to an increase in Coal & Palm prices. Its very likely Indonesia will report a $22bn surplus for 2020 the largest since 2011.

Thanx caravanboy, as all Americans say ............" apppreeechiated"..............