Member Info for JohnLewis79

Indonesia sets a higher ref price for CPO in Feb at $1026pt up from $952pt (Jan). The Cpo tax will be set at $93 up $19 and the levy at $255 up $15 at the new higher band. Total take up $34 to $348.

These punitive rises amount to an increase of 26% for tax, 6% for levy for a 3% rise in the cpo. Only one winner there.

Rea 179 (57)
Cpo $762 ($964)
Cif(R) $1030e

Oil $59
Gold $1571

Ftse 7484
All 4157
DJ 28,734
SP 3273
NS 9275

$1•302
€1•183
IDR 13,627

Anglo 556
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 700

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,743,734 (103,126)*
Indonesia 1,037,993 (29,331)•

* 28,680 cases
* 1239 deaths
• 13,695 cases
• 476 deaths

London saw Dow futures down 330+ and promptly fell 100. As the day progressed buyers returned trimming losses. London closed off 41 the Dow was motoring up 200.

Going along for the ride were the redditt and subredditt board jumpers who had backed GamesStop to defy the shorts. Holding expensive borrowed stock which was costing them small fortunes many iis quit their positions in GamesStop. Citron is thought to have lost close to $3BN backing the wrong horse. Whatever happens hereinaf'ter, this day will be remembered as the day the little man won the Battle of Shortstop.

As I write delegations from Hedge Funds are knocking on SEC doors with petitions to stop Social Media Message boards, stop zero cost dealing platforms and stop bedroom punters pump and dump activities, most of which they whole'heartedly approve of and employ themselves.
In all honesty the big boys were incandescent with rage that they had been mugged off by the "little man" in the street and were asking the SEC to ensure they could continue to trash companies under the guise of SEC Regulated Spivvery.

In first (stock restricted) dealings G'stock jumped $123 to $469 as punters bet this was a one way street of No U Turns. The GamesStop phenomenon has spread to Asia and Australia. Buyers were busy in heavyweight Blue Chips and American Airlines bucked the gloomy sentiment getting a $5 shot in the arm to $21 becoming the latest stock pick of several Social Media Message boards to get the GamesStop treatment. The Company posted a better Q4 ($3•86L) per share than Wall expected.

On the economic front, data showed the economy contracted at its fastest pace since WW2 (-4%) as the Wuhan flu ravaged service businesses and put millions out of work. Another 847,000 signed on last week taking the jobless total to 12•6m people (Bureau of Labour statistics). Various others using a variety of inputs say the total is nearer 18m and worst case as high as 30m.

Of the 189 companies reporting on the S&P 89% had topped forecasts. At Close GS had slumped $153 to $193 but after hours put on $118. Profit takers sliced Wall St gains late on. On the NYSE 19•6bn shares traded, risers outpacing decliners 2•2:1 with only 11 new 52s.
DJ +300 (30,603)
SP +37 (3787)
NS +89 (13,202)
R2 -22 (1207)
WTI $52•25
10ytb 1•052%

Nos: Oil $55•16. Vix 30.
Gold $1841. Copper $3•551.
Palm $967. $1•370. €1•133.
IDR 14,054. MSCI(W) 2711.
FF -78. DF -280.
Morning all.

Give or take a thousand or so i reckon we have 4•726m trees across our p/ha of 33,050 mature acreage of producing trees. These are valued at anywhere between $7000 and $10,000+ EV p/ha. I'll go for a lower value of $5000 (£3650) x by 33,050 ha which gives us a value of £121m or 275pps. I've knocked off a few quid for debt.

So bofp calcs, that values each tree at c.£5. Since we plant at c.143 trees per ha that gives us a tree value of £25. Multiply by 33,050 p/ ha gives us a tree value of £118m or a per share value of 269p.
That's a huge 213p margin of safety. What i want to know is, where's the other £20 a tree gone? As 1 tree will on average produce between 100-200lbs of fruit a year at the lower rate that 1 tree at current cpo c.(£686) yields £69 per annum x 4•726m trees = £326m gross or a share value of c.741p (all figs at the low prices).

Surely some mistake somewhere! Mind you we have been down this road before and got nowhere. If the mrkt says our trees are worth 5p a tree then that's the deal. Nearly 5m trees for £25m what a steal! All these nos might be fanciful but 5p a tree give me a break?

Give or take a thousand or so i reckon we have 4•726m trees across our p/ha of 33,050 mature acreage of producing trees. These are valued at anywhere between $7000 and $10,000+ EV p/ha. I'll go for a lower value of $5000 (£3650) knocked off a few quid for debt x by 33,050 ha which gives us a value of £121m or 275pps.

So bofp calcs, that values each tree at c.£5. Since we plant at c.143 trees per ha that gives us a tree value of £25. Multiply by 33,050 p/ ha gives us a tree value of £118m or a per share value of 269p. That's a huge 213p margin of safety. What i want to know is, where's the other £20 a tree gone? As 1 tree will on average produce between 100-200lbs of fruit a year at the lower rate that 1 tree at current cpo c.(£686) yields £69 per annum x 4•726m trees = £326m gross or a share value of c.741p (all figs at the low prices).

Surely some mistake somewhere! Mind you we have been down this road before and got nowhere. If the mrkt says our trees are worth 5p a share then that's the deal. Nearly 5m trees for £25m what a steal! All these nos might be fanciful but 5p a tree do me a favour!

Rea 179 (56)
Cpo $757 ($944)
Cif(R) $1025e

Oil $59
Gold $1570

Ftse 7481
All 4155
DJ 21,433
SP 3276
NS 9270

$1•299
€1•180
IDR 13,637

Anglo 534
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,715,054 (101,887)*
Indonesia 1,024,298 (28,855)•

* 25,308 cases
* 1725 deaths
• 11,948 cases
• 387 deaths

Zonk! The Dow tumbled 580 at the bell as most investors withdrew to the sidelines awaiting news from Fed Chair Powell (no change expected) and big tech Q earnings. Floor traders were left to their own devices and wham out of the blue they were dumping stock like no tomorrow. Only the Defensive sector on the 500 was up as all the action was down among the Harum Scarum stocks beloved by day traders and stay at home punters trying to earn a coin.

One crazy counter defying the law of stock mrkt science, the runes and gravity was GamesStop up $224 (151%) to $372 in early dealings, prompting 'hedgies' to retreat from heavy losses in the stock. Overall short sellers in GamesStop are down $5bn on a mark to mrkt basis so far this year.
Citron Research the main short seller said GameStop was headed to $20 but in an astonishing reversal of fortune has had to abandon its bet on GameStop shares falling, leaving the field bloodied and a hell of a lot poorer. It's not often the Goliaths of Wall are routed on the battlefield by a retail army of Davids....but boy, oh boy this is 'one for the gippers' of Main St!

Zero cost trading platforms like Robinhood has spurred the boom in direct investment and wannabe Michael Meehans placing stock bets from their bedrooms. This has alarmed regulators as investors call for more scrutiny of the frenzy of Social Media driven trading & the pump and dump chit chat of Redditt boards, entertaining as it is. Others to benefit by short squeezes included AMC up $11 to $16, Nokia up $2 to $7 & Blackberry up $5 to $24.

Boeing reported a Q4 loss of $8•4bn making a record year loss of $11•19bn. The 3 year delay of the 777X plane incurred extra charges of $6•5bn for a loss per share of $15•25 ($2•33L) revs down 15% to $15•3bn. Shares fell $7 to $196 before close.
Starbucks, after reporting a larger than expected fall in Q1 sales sent shares down $7 to $98. They expect China to grow at between 27%-32% this year and have raised earnings guidance for 2021.
Apples ($137 -$6) stellar results ($111•4bn revs in Q4) profits up 29% couldn't prevent stocks tumbling 300 in the afternoon session as Tesla ($820 -$44) reported lower profits and revs but record deliveries and Fbk ($37 u/c) warned of significant uncertainties. The gloomy comments from these bellwether companies sent the Dow to its lowest in 3 months.

On the NYSE 23bn shares changed hands, sells outpacing buys by 4•9:1.
DJ -634 (30,303)
SP -99 (3751)
NS -378 (13,113)
R2 -4 (1229)
WTI $52•61
10ytb 1•016%

Nos: Oil $55•22. Vix 37.
Gold $1835. Copper $3•544.
Palm $944. $1•367. €1•130.
IDR 14,095. MSCI(W) 2694.
FF -65. DF -86.
Morning all.

I don't know whats killing the share price, could it be the cpo price up over c.$150 y-o-y? If it ain't that it sure ain't helping. Perhaps its the debt situation but we knew about that when the sp was in the 200s and cpo a lot lower. Could be the mrkt has just woken up to the debt situation. Do I believe that? No.

So, not the cpo or debt. Sector woes? Yes and No. Other Palmers are holding their own, DKL even rising on the No side, yet we in the YES camp are taking all the flak for the demon oil, or so it seems. But let's face it it would hardly tank the sp over 100 in a year would it?

More sellers than buyers? No, neither imo make any difference and I suspect buys are outpacing sells anyway even if only marginally. Sentiment? Yes its very poor but file under demon palm oil and surely would be applicable to Anglo, Mpe & Dkl assuming they sell palm oil and not jelly beans.
Maybe 'mates rates', 'jobber games' 'holding back' or any other conspiracy theory you'd like to name....is it fear of a raise or cpo prices to fall in H2? No, both only surfaced recently and have not impacted the sp.....yet!

So round and round we go on the merry-go-round. Any ideas folks why we trade at such huge discounts to EV, NAV and Tom Cobley? I guess it is what it is and we have to deal with it. Of course if your a believer you must be loving the dirt cheap price.
So where is the risk reward ratio at present? You'd have to say its 70:30 risk, can it reverse? Who knows, REA confounds most known drivers of a rising share price so your guess is as good as mine.....have a nice day.

Rea 179 (56)
Cpo $747 ($925)
Cif (R) $980-$1005

Oil $59
Gold $1581

Ftse 7412
All 4119
DJ 28,536
SP 3244
NS 9139

$1•305
€1•185
IDR 13,605

Anglo 534
Dkl 2•95
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,689,746 (100,162)*
Indonesia 1,012,350 (28,468)•

* 20,188 cases
* 1631 deaths
• 13,094 cases
• 336 deaths

Global cases 100•8m
Global deaths 2•2m

A good start on the Street yesterday as earnings nos from Top Blue chips pleased the mrkt. J&J a huge pharma conglomerate jumped $5 to $171 after forecasting 2021 profits above consensus estimates and its one-dose vaccine eliciting strong immune response as antibodies formed in more than 90% of participants by day 29 and 100% in the age group 18-55 by day 57. To date only 2 vaccines have been approved for emergency use by the FDA, Moderna & Pfizer. Its estimated global demand will need 20 variants of the covid vaccine.

3M who make the popular N95 face mask rose $5 to $175 on Q4 busting numbers. GE one of the 12 original 1896 Dow Stocks inched up 30c to $11 after it offered an upbeat outlook for 2021. GE the first of the Industrial Conglomerates was run by Jack Welsh the notorious CEO and Chairman who became a business superstar and one of the most celebrated bosses of the last 50 years during his 20 year reign at GE. He must have done something right as he was awarded the bigest pay off in US business history, some $417m.

Amex fell $4 to $117 on a 15% fall in Q4 profits as the lockdowns kept businessmen and Joe Public from using their Amex cards. Msoft was gaining strength up $3 to $232 prior to reporting after the close along with tech titan Micro Devices up $1 to $95.
Tesla was on the up adding $8 to $889 with the Nsdq market.

GamesStop after hoards of traders & Reddit-boarders jumped on the stock rallied from the days low of $77 surging a staggering $133 to close the day at $210 valuing the Co at c.$10bn (losses widened to $1•60 a share last Q). Shorters have been well & truly bloodied as repeated spins on Red have fallen Black.

Stay at homes were mixed, Amazon closed up $80 at $3375 on news the Co is hiring 3000 staff at its Boston hub due to e-commerce demand but Zoom ($374)and Flix ($559) fell on profit taking both after strong runs last year. Late on Msoft nos pleased investors, shares up $11 to $241a new record, topping Walls estimates as cloud computing surged 50%. Some big hitters will be reporting today led by Apple, Tesla, Fbk and Boeing.

On the NYSE 14•30bn shares were traded decliners outpacing risers by 1•31:1, no new lows, 29 new 52s. At Close:-
DJ -37 (30,960)
SP +14 (3855) R
NS +117 (13,483) R
R2 +1 (1233) R
WTI $52•51
10ytb 1•041%

Nos: Oil $55•88. Vix 23.
Gold $1844. Copper $3•611.
Palm $925. $1•372. €1•129.
IDR 14,055. MSCI(W) 2754.
FF-23. DF-51.
Morning all.

Lockdown 2 started on 16/12 on that day infections were 18,450 and fatalities 506. Here we are over 5 wks later with more infections and deaths (22,905/592) being recorded.
Ok more testing is being carried out which may explain that and the nos lag. Nevertheless at this rate March looks an outside bet for the UK to get back to normal.

At what stage will the Govt clear the way for businesses and people to resume their daily activity? Will it be 10,000 daily infections, 5000 or lower cases and what if the rates stay stubbornly above 18,000, another 3 month extension?

The first 2 recorded cases of Covid-19 in the UK were reported on the 31st January 2020 so we were told and many think people were spreading the virus back in November of 2019, a year plus ago and I don't think anyone thought we would be in this catastrophic position a year later.

Many say the damage has been done and its neither here nor there if we have to be locked up through to the Summer. Not sure I agree with that as many more people will have had the jab and i doubt the Govt dare put a date on for the return, which must be final, no going back come what may.

All this presupposes that vaccines are ready and available which now looks unlikely as Astra Zenecca (Pfizer) say they won't be able to meet the contracted volume, what then?

Covid-19
04:30

UK 3,669,558 (98,531)*
Indonesia 999,256 (28,132)•

* 22,095 cases
* 592 deaths
• 9994 cases
• 297 deaths

Is it going to be a Biden Boom, a Biden Bust or just a Biden bubble about to be popped? The Jury is out on that one, a straw poll was inconclusive but sided with the 'Bubble.' While investors are in a 'buy everything mood' chasing everything from techs to loss makers, many fear a pull back is around the corner. GS top research Quants have poured over the nos and say with low rates, treasury yields, cash and corporate credit aggregate indexes trade at below historic valuations. Where you stand on that premise, is very much 'you pays your money and you takes your choice'....but be on the side of where the monies are going.

The Dow didnt read the news today and opened lower, down 155 at the bell despite positive advices from the Far East. Investors were in no mood to stock up on Blue chips preferring to chance their arms among the high priced techs. Investors drove tech prices up 200 at 11:30 but then ran smack into funds dumping tech across the sector. At mid'day the Dow had fallen 442, the 500, R2 & a bruised Nsdq flat.

Sectors getting pummelled were Energy and financials with Amex, GS and Chevron down among the big board laggards. Best sectors on the 500 inc Tech Comms, Housing & large cap growth stocks all at record highs. Apple $142 topped the big board early ahead of Q results on Wed, revenues could hit $100bn for the first time ever.
Investors believe the FAANGs will continue to earn above average returns into 2022 backed up by a surge in consumer spending and are in the main sticking with them as out of favour cyclicals get bogged down in the virus debate. Its forecast 600,000 Americans will have died before the virus spread is contained.

Users of retail trading platforms from the likes of Schwab, Robinhood, M/Lynch and Vanguard all reported technical problems with logging on, dealing etc, as vols have surged to unprecedented levels caused in part by Video Games Retailer GamesStops shorts rushing to cover bets. The stock hit $159 early today before slumping to $61 then recovering after hours to $89. In Jan the stock traded at $17.

Then you have Tesla hitting $900 this morning up nearly $200 since Dec 31st ahead of Q results on Wed, closed up $24 at $874. Merck the big US pharma has quit the Covid-19 Stakes Race due to inferior vaccine results as Moderna gained on news of trialling a vaccine for the S.African strain, shares up $14 to $146.
An afternoon surge saw the Dow almost back to break even. On the NYSE, 16•4bn shares were traded sellers outbidding buyers by 1•33:1 no new lows, 28 new 52s.
DJ -37 (30,960)
SP +14 (3855) R
NS +117 (13,483) R
R2 +1 (1233) R
WTI $52•57
10ytb 1•041%

Nos: Oil $55•43. Vix 23.
Gold $1860. Copper $3•162.
Palm $916. $1•366. €1•126.
IDR 14,060. MSCI(W) 2757.
FF+6. DF -160.
Morning all.

The rise in US futures got Asia off to a bright start this morning, shares in Japan led up by Techs and Pharmas. Toshiba jumped 15% on being elected to the Nikkei 225 top tier and Nikon added 6%. Drug maker Takeda put on 4% as it said it would start trialling Modernas vaccine. The 225 was up 124 at lunch.

HK which was forecast to open mixed has surged 2% (610) higher led up by Tencent jumping 8% and other popular stocks, Alibaba, Geely Autos., Sunny Optical all 4% better. Money continues to flood in from mainland China where the SHCOMP trades at a 3 year high whereas the Hang Seng is flat.

Other Asian mrkts were better S.Korea up 57 but Taiwan fell 100 losing its top spot of Asian gainers this year to S.K (+11%). Both SK & Taiwan exchanges are trading at record or near record highs. Pan Pacifics tended lower Jakarta down 74 continuing the 2 day decline as Banks and resource stocks were sold off. Australias ASX200 closed 17 better as Pfizer's vaccine is approved and will be rolled out in Feb.

At Close in Japan.
TK +93
HK +534
SH +18
SHZ +16
TAIX -72
JSX -87
ASX +24

Nos: Oil $55•45. Vix 22.
Gold $1855. Copper $3•633.
Palm $909. $1•371. €1•125.
IDR 14,043. MSCI(W) 2756.
FF +23. DF+91.
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:30

UK 3,647,463 (97,939)*
Indonesia 989,262 (27,835)•

* 30,004 cases
* 610 deaths
• 11,788 cases
• 171 deaths

Rea 179 (58)
Cpo $781($918)
Cif(R) $980e

Oil $61
Gold $1572

Ftse 7586
All 4213
DJ 28,989
SP 3295
NS 9315

$1•306
€1•186
IDR 13,572

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•50
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,617,459 (97,329)*
Indonesia 977,474 (27,664)•

* 33,552 cases
* 1348 deaths
• 12,191 cases
• 211 deaths