Member Info for JohnLewis79

Rea 153 (58)
Cpo $716 ($1032)
Cif(R) $1115e

Oil $57
Gold $1606

Ftse 7382
All 4119
DJ 29,232
SP 3370
NS 9733

$1•300
€1•120
IDR 13,665

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 686

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,071,185 (118,933)*
Indonesia 1,243,646 (33,788)•

* 12,717 cases
* 738 deaths
• 9687 cases
• 192 deaths

Overdue a pull back equities went South at the bell falling 180 as investors upped sticks awaiting the release of minutes from the Fed Reserve Jan meeting. No change is expected keeping rates on hold while inflation is below 2%. Early gains were few but Chevron rose to $95 on the Buffet stake (£2•96bn) news. Oil prices firmed despite output disruptions of c.2-3m bopd as refineries shut down in Texas due to the freezing weather.

Economic news was positive and pointed to a healthier economy in consumer and manufacturing sectors. Retail sales shot up a stunning 5% in January crushing estimates. US producer prices rose c.2% another sign of improvement. Analysts worry over possible inflationary pressures building up quicker than thought pushing up bond yields and over exuberance of pis in the stock mrkts with no fall back position should Q2 & 3 nos disappoint.

Gold had another poor day falling $22 to $1792 partly as the USD strengthened and chartists pointing to a "death cross" pattern (don't ask) unfolding, signalling the potential for longer-term down trend in prices. Gold is down $125 ytd (6%).

Many warn that investors are fixating on 'Shiny' items like Bitcoin, Space Exploration and SPACS stirring up trouble for themselves down the road. SPACS (Special Purpose Acquisition Shell Co) designed to raise money via a 'pool' in order finance a merger or T/O without going through the traditional IPO process. These have become very popular among private investors eager to invest in 'pools'. Back in the day Michael Meehan the top 'specialist' (jobber) invented 'pools' to front run on stocks like Radio pre the '29 crash.
As London closed down 38 (6712) the Dow had recouped earlier losses to trade flat for the session. The Nsdq was down 220 early on as FAANGs were hit by sellers rotating out of growth into cyclicals, especially as they trade on very high earnings multiples.

Hilton Worldwide ($114) traded flat after reporting a $225m net loss in Q4 and a $720m loss for the F/Y. Revs slid 62% due to virus induced travel restrictions and cancellations. Hilton owns 4000 properties, a mix of Hotels, Resorts and Timeshares. With c.650,000 rooms to be filled, RevPAR is crucial and unfortunately it tanked 59% in 2020 leading to the big fall in revenues.
On the NYSE declining stocks outpaced advances by 1•42:1
with 26 new 52s on 14•1bn traded.
DJ +90 (31,613) R
SP -1 (3931)
NS -74 (13,700)
R2 -7 (1287)
WTI $61•65
10ytb 1•270%

Nos:- Oil $65•10. Vix 21.
Gold $1782. Copper $3•894.
Palm $1032. Silver $27•410.
$1•385. €1•151. IDR 14,033.
MSCI(W) 2816. FF+8. DF -30.
Morning all.

Only 13,087 traded yesterday so back to the no interest norm for this stock but to be fair as do others in the sector. Even Malaysia palm stock prices are flagging this year. With commodity prices rising globally and entering a new supercycle phase of price increases palm stock prices lag the miners.

Cpo started the year at $978 and has risen $64 (6%) and averages $973 ytd. If maintained around current levels expect Q1 to av c.$1000 against $693 last. Should be good for palm top lines despite having to pay out to the Govt $348 in taxes and probably $200 more than Q1 last.

We will have to see how these taxes impact palm ebita's at the H1 stage and what were the 'achieved' prices est at $700 a month or so ago but now could nudge $725. Its a tough business to earn a coin if your carrying a heavy debt load.

Rea 153 (60)
Cpo $714 ($1042)
Cif(R) $1080e

Oil $57
Gold $1585

Ftse 7433
All 4147
DJ closed
SP closed
NS closed

$1•299
€1•120

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 688

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,058,468 (118,195)*
Indonesia 1,233,959(33,596)•

* 10,625 cases
* 799 deaths
• 10,029 cases
• 229 deaths

Global cases 110,035,633.

Wall opened at record highs pushed up by cyclicals, finance, industrials & other economically sensitive stocks.
The S&P value index which has risen c.6% in the last two weeks due to investors betting these stocks will lead the economy out of its slump by Q3. Advices from global mrkts point in that direction.

Early movers included Chevron up $4 to $94 as Buffet disclosed a stake in the Co. Cat, JPMC & Salesforce headed the top of the big board. Going the other way Techs & Healthcare. Of the 11 major S&P sectors 8 were solidly up led by the Banks index ahead by 2% as the US 10y/tb yields 1•269 its highest since March last year.

Bitcoin crossed the $50,000 barrier due in part to Musks $1•6bn intervention which created widespread interest among investors. As more and more people adopt the coin as an alternative to cash it will be taken up by more agencies. Institutions have been quietly adding coin to their portfolios. Many think coin will skyrocket this year afterall it traded at $35,000 one month ago. Talk of $100,000 Bitcoin may not be too fanciful.

Further lifting sentiment is Bidens $1•9tn stimulus package awaiting the green light from Congress. Cheques are expected to be sent out to recipients next month, before the jobless benefits lapse mid March. While new infections are coming down, in the next 3 or 4 days total deaths will pass 500,000 since the first case was reported a year ago.

Earnings reports due out include well known names like Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, Trip Advisor and Norwegian Cruise Line. Southwest Air was u/c after the carrier forecast slower cash burn in the current Q, the stock has risen 12% this month. Oil traded above $60 on supply concerns & domestic output down 33% due to the freezing conditions in Texas and across the US.

GamesStop off leader columns fell $2 to $50 while AMC added 60c to $5.55. Vols have cratered and their 15 mins of fame have been consigned to history.
'Stay at homes' Flix was u/c at $555, Amazon off $2 ($3275) and Zoom up $10to $443 the best performer up c.$51 this month. Tesla never far off leader columns and chat boards is having a bad week the stock down $55, though he has made $500m on his 8% Bitcoin investment. Having a highly volatile investment on one's balance sheet would cause many a CFO to have sleepless nights.

On the NYSE c.14bn were traded advances outstripping decliners 1•71:1 with 62 new 52s on the 500.
DJ +64 (31523) R
SP -2 (3933)
NS -34 (13,774)
R2 -4 (1294)
WT1 $60•06
10y/tb 1•298%

Nos Oil $63•35. Vix 21•50.
Gold $1792. Copper $3•831.
Palm $1035. Silver $27•375.
$1•389. €1•148. IDR 13,993.
MSCI(W) 2828. FF+10. DF+4.
Morning all.

Day 2 of (wk 7) might build on yesterday's 26•4k shares traded, buys outpacing sells by 1•88:1. I think cpo hitting multi year highs has been the catalyst and late comers to the stock have not missed the boat in terms of the shares climbing alongside Cpo which has risen (78%) from May lows of $577 v the sp up (18%).

Even with balance sheet woes some say the Co is significantly undervalued on traditional methods of valuation. I think those are out of the window and have been since 2019. Investors for a variety of reasons have put the REA share price on suspended sentence.

Asia is flying up this morning extending the bull run this year and is showing no signs of stopping. The Nikkei putting on 620 towards close for the day led higher by Financials but Motors underperformed. The 225 has gained 12% ytd. Shanghai and Taiwan are still closed.

SK followed Tokyo's lead and is up 11 thanks to the Govts arrangement with Novavax and Pfizer to supply 23m more doses of the vaccines which will complete the coverage of S.Ks 53m population. A spike of 456 cases yesterday took the total infections to 84,000 and 1534 deaths ytd.

Other Pan Pacifics were all higher and Australia closed at a one year high (6917) on BHP posting a record H1 profit and increased interim dividend.
Miners have bulleted the ASX this year due to commodity gains in copper, silver etc...

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,047,843 (117,396)*
Indonesia 1,223,930 (33,367)•

* 9765 cases
* 230 deaths
• 6462 cases
• 184 deaths

American mrkts are closed for Presidents Day which was established in 1885 in honour of G.Washington America's first President. It is observed on the 3rd Monday in February moved there in 1971, as part of the Uniform Monday Holiday Act. No postal services will be open to the public.

Global shares, up for the 11th straight day continued the good start to the year led by Asian mrkts. Japan closed 564 ahead yesterday as WTI & Brent crude oil pushed ahead to levels last seen in Jan 2020. Oil is a lead indicator of the health of economies especially the US where petrol and spin off usages play such a huge part. Also tensions flared up after the Saudi led coalition forces said they shot down a drone fired by the Irani/Houthi group. The Saudi Stock Mrkt barely moved on the news and is up 392 points (4•5%) ytd crossing 9,000 for the first time in a 18 months.

MSCI(W) index of global stock mrkts is up 5% ytd. Safe haven stocks, Gold and Bonds were neglected as risk appetite was very much back on investors menus. Gold slipped to the low $1810s and Switzerlands 30 yt/bill yield rose above zero % for the first time since early 2020. The US 0Govt 10y/tb yields 1•20% up from a 52 wk low of 0•38%. The USD has strengthened near 2% v the GBP this year.

London's ftse closed at its best in months (6756) up 166 boosted by gains in oil giants BP & Shell as crude rose 85c to $63•28. This takes the 100s gain this year to 5%, wiping out January's losses and outstripping the Dow and 500 for the first time in living memory. The UK focused mid cap 250 index hit an 11 month high led by TUI up 4%. RR added 4% on the appointment of a new CFO and pub outfit M&B jumped c.8% after plans to raise £350m through an open offer for shares pleased investors.
Ftse+166 (6756)
AS +29 (3755)
250 +381 (21,419)
SC +21 (6515)
Aim +1 (1226)

Nos:- Oil $63•62. Vix 19•97.
Gold $1825. Copper $3•839.
Palm $1034. Silver $27•96.
$1•394. €1•148. IDR 13,923.
MSCI(W) 2830. FF +34. DF +66.
Morning all.

Japan led a broad rally in stocks to start the week off in good mood. With China, HK, SK & Taiwan closed for Chinese New Year. This year, its the year of the Rat and those born under this zodiac sign will have stable fortunes this year. Chinese NY usually lasts 16 days.

Investors were buying into corporate earnings growth and the global economy returning to normal. The pace of inoculations is reassuring investors that countries are slowly containing the virus and sentiment is changing for the better. Japan has reported c.7,000 fatalities and c.415,000 cases ytd across a population of c.126m its a tiny %.

The Nikkei up 8•5% this month added 250 on the news the Govt will start corona inoculations this week. The 225 crossed 30,000 for the first time since August 1990 and is c.500 up heading to close. Energy and healthcare stocks seen as the leaders out of Covid-19 led the advances with Pan Pacifics following Tokyo's lead. Australia closed up 69 and is 4% ahead ytd.

Nos:- Oil $63•64. Vix 19•9.
Gold $1823. Copper $3•828.
Palm $1025. Silver $27•610.
$1•390. €1•145. IDR 13,910.
MSCI(W) 2819. FF +46. DF+136.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:30

UK 4,038,078 (117,166)*
Indonesia 1,217,468 (33,183)•

* 10,972 cases
* 258 deaths
• 6763 cases
• 247 deaths

I see Woodford is back for a second helping of pie after his ignominious sacking 18 months ago after his funds imploded leaving investors in the funds unable to access their cash.

This time round he will only be raising finance from professional investors (his mates). However the FCA have an ongoing investigation which could scupper his plans. Woodford is adamant that nothing will come of it. W sold his Stately home come farm with stables in the Cotswolds once funds dried up. Worth £30m at one time its not known how much he raised from the sale.

The city is always prepared to back financiers gone bad with more of their investors monies. Its a wonderful merry-go-round as long as it's not your money at risk.

Rea 154 (57)
Cpo $718 ($1018)
Cif(R) $1130e

Oil $57
Gold $1585

Ftse 7409
All 4135
DJ 29,398
SP 3380 (R)
NS 9731 (R)

$1•305
€1•123
IDR 13675

Anglo 570
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 692

Covid-19
06:00

UK 4,027,106 (116,908)*
Indonesia 1,210,703 (32,936)•

* 13,307 cases
* 621 deaths
• 8844 cases
• 280 deaths

Rea 151 (58)
Cpo $723 ($1018)
Cif(R) $1130e

Oil $56
Gold $1578

Ftse 7452
All 4150
DJ 29,423
SP 3374
NS 9712

$1•305
€1•120
IDR 13670

Anglo 583
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 696

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,013,799 (116,287)*
Indonesia 1,201,859 (32,656)•

* 15,144 cases
* 758 deaths
• 9869 cases
• 275 deaths

MSCI(W) gauge of stocks across the Globe rose for the 10th straight session on Friday hitting a record high for the year (2807) and Walls 4 major indexes all posted record closes after a late rally of 100+ on the Dow.
Investors were bouyed by gains in Financials, GS, JPMC, Amex and other beaten down cyclicals were being bought as many investors fear of missing out on the next leg up.
Heading lower were WD after decent results, UH, Nike & Cisco all in the red.

The CBOE volatility index or 'fear gauge' slipped below 20 for the first time in over a year. LAny nos above 30 indicates increased uncertainty and risk, below 20 stress free periods for mrkts or put it another way Vix down Mrkts up and vice versa. The US $ ended slightly better against the GBP ($1•385) as risk appetite returned.

Bitcoin the story of the moment closed lower at $47,356 after $49,000 and the benchmark 10y/tb finished at 1•203% an 11 month high. Brent Crude added $1•42 pushing its ytd gains to 21% on hopes that when the economy returns to normal fuel demand and carriage services will soar.

On the NYSE 13•3bn were traded well below the 20 day average, advances 1:35 :1 over decliners and 52 new 52s.
On the week the Dow added 310, the SP 48, Nsdq 203 and the Small Cap 2000 put on 45 the runaway winner in the YTD stakes, up 16%.

DJ +28 (31,458) R
SP +18 (3935) R
NS +73 (13,807) R
R2 +2 (1298) R
WTI $59.73
10ytb 1•210%

Nos: Oil $62•72. Vix 19•97.
Gold $1825. Copper $3•782.
Palm $1018. Silver $27•45.
$1•385. €1•143. IDR 13,937.
MSCI(W) 2807.
Morning all.

For the first time in many years cpo averaged $1009 over the week and now runs at $970 ytd against $789 last year, up 23%. The KLPI closed the week u/c and runs 2% down ytd. London palms were flat on the week with no movement at all despite cpo gaining $28. Palm Co share prices are on a one way street to nowhere viewed on a ytd basis (see below).

If the mrkt won't value plantations on their main and only product what are they valued on? I think we should be told. Mind you a fair few Oil Expo & Mining Cos are saying the same thing but there not tagged the 'demon' black stuff or a deep hole with a liar at the bottom. The latter two are the acceptable face of commodity businesses.

Ytd
Anglo +22
Dkl +•65
Mpe -25
Rea u/c

Have another good lockdown wk/end if you can.