Member Info for JohnLewis79

I need 66 to clear but thats a longshot. I feel sorry for those who bght up in the 100s+ and decided not to average down while the cpo price was tanking. Usually that's a good decision if your unsure whether to throw good money after bad. Idiots like me do it ev'erytime!

That leaves some up s*** creek without a paddle as I cannot see the sp ever hitting 100 again bid or no bid. I have read the runes and spoken to the Ju Ju men and they confirm my bearish outlook.

Have to say this has been a stinker since I bought in and if the sp ever hits 70 I'll be out of here like a scalded cat. Looks like a long wait.

Not very appetising is it?

Rea 140* (59)
Cpo $731 ($1013)
Cif(R) $1130e

Oil $56
Gold $1572

Frse 7534
All 4191
DJ 29,551 R
SP 3379 R
NS 9726 R

$1•297
€1•192
IDR 13,660

Anglo 580
Dkl 2•85
Mpe 696

* fell 26p on 10,000 traded.

Covid-19
05:30

UK 3,998,655 (115,529)*
Indonesia 1,191,990 (32,381)•

* 13,494 cases
* 678 deaths
• 8435 cases
• 214 deaths

Investors were in no mood to heed clarion calls to sell from the uninformed looking to buy in lower down. The Dow just steam'rollerd its way ahead climbing 132 to a new intraday high following Far Eastern bullish noises. The techs & 500 not far behind both hover at highs as the jobless nos pleased the Street. New jobless filings (793,000) fell from the previous weeks (812,000) and well below the 7m reported last March. New infection cases are dropping weekly and with the stimulus package signed off many think the worst is over. The mrkt says it is..... so it is.

Analysts have been revising upward earnings nos on the 500 to grow at 2•5% versus a drop of 10% at the start of the year due to fiscal and monetary stimulus, corona news and positive earnings which have surprised many sceptics and hard bitten Wall St veterans. Some investors are bracing themselves for a major correction. TV pundit Cramer on 'Squawk Box' urges investors to take profits and Buffets 'red flag' metric warns of trouble ahead.

Mastercard rose $9 to $343 after the credit card giant said it was planning to offer support for some crypto-currencies on its network this year. A good nos of big ticket firms, Visa and PayPal have pledged similar deals. The news sent Bitcoin racing to $48,480 early on yesterday. Tesla initially bemused its hard core base by associating itself with a currency that many think is another casino chip to flip on the wheel of misfortune. Bank of NY Mellon ($43) said it had formed a special unit to help clients hold, trade and issue digital assets. Could be cryptos are here to stay.

Msoft put on a $1 to $244 as news broke it may make an offer for the outstanding of Pinterest the image sharing Co, stock shot up $6 to $87.
Later said talks were not ongoing. Lower down from the big leagues Cannabis stocks Tilray & Aphria reversed pre mrkt gains to drop sharply after the sector caught the attention of Redditt amateur speculators. Tilray slumped 42% to $37 & Aphira off 30% to $24. GamesStop and AMC very much yesterday's fish 'n chip paper were little changed.

As London closed the DJI was down 102 led by Walgreens, Boeing, 3M, GS & IBM. Crude slipped 35c to $57•81. The afternoon crowd pushed the 30 off 31,244 lows to close just short of a new record. On the NYSE advances ruled 1•8:1 on c.15bn traded, 21 new 52s.
DJ -7 (31,431)
SP +6 (3916) =R
NS +79 (13,734) R
R2 +5 (1296) R
WTI $57•82
10ytb 1•161%

Nos:- Oil $60.76. Vix 21•25.
Gold $1822. Copper $3•768.
Palm $1011. Silver $27•040.
$1•379. €1•138. IDR 13,973.
MSCI(W) 2807. FF -14. DF-24.
Morning all.

Tbh I hesitated to say this but at 56-7 we might be overvalued by 10-20p given the catch 22 position the bod have positioned the Co via easy blood money transfusions over the years which came home to roost in 2020, as they always do. Addicted to this waterfall of monies, has led to this sorry state where record cpo prices have driven the sp to near historic lows and actually damages us more than help us. An increasing cash top line of not much use here certainly as far as planting. No money for that!

All we can do is work flat out to enrich our creditors.....a fine bloody way to run a business. What this cascade of borrowings has achieved over the years is a mystery as far as profits are concerned. Most won't bother to look any further. Once slated to be the next big thing....the greasy facts said otherwise despite me thinking it was a runner.
Will anything happen to put us out of our misery? Not likely as more debt financing is on the cards just as cpo is looking toppy heading to H2. Can we realistically look for a take out this year given our low value? On the face of it yes but then you look further down the balance sheet and share register.....'ooooer' not bleeding likely.

Unfortunately when your invested in a Co controlled by one major holder you have to 'take a knee' and hope they are acting in your best interests...if that's not a cruel kindness which it obviously is here.
Goodness knows how this Co has survived so long even with copious amounts of borrowings, dilution, deferring divs, we go to work to pay others. As nobull rightly says were a 'Zombie' walking dead Co.

I railed against the mrkt valuing us at 'tuppence halfpenny a tree' knackers yard prices, defying all logic. On this occasion they are probably looking 12 months ahead and do not like the view. The dead and burieds can be resurrected but here?.....

......I cling on in fast receeding hopes that the likelihood is I have got it completely wrong (I usually do) and a rerate is around the corner even if its at the Tamburello Corner at Imola racetrack. Senna didn't make it and he knew what he was doing. Do we and will we?

Sure is and on target to be lower volume than last year w-o-w.

Good points nobull....how about throwing in the towel, sell all the assets and return us 0•25pps. Should do the trick.

Rea 166 (57)
Cpo $732 ($997)
Cif(R) $1130e

Oil $54
Gold $1569

Ftse 7499
All 4170
DJ 29,276
SP 3358 (R)
NS 9639 (R)

$1•294
€1•185
IDR 13,665

Anglo 596
Dkl 2•90
Mpe 700

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,985,161(114,851)*
Indonesia 1,183,555 (32,167)•

* 13,013 cases
* 1001 deaths
• 8776 cases
• 191 deaths

Wall-streeters pushed the Dow up in early trades taking heart from positive noises from Asia (all bourses ahead on the day) and Europe. Investors were waiting Fed Chair Powells speech to the Economic Club of NY set for 2:00pm Eastern Time for any clues on the pace of economic recovery.

At the bell the 30 headed 50 up but soon ran into sellers worried Powell may be less optimistic than the mrkt thought, so took an opportunity to trim positions leaving the 30 down 65 at 'elevenses.' Falls on big board stocks were led by Cisco, Walmart, Apple, Msoft & Boeing. Going up Amex, UH, Chevron and Walgreens. These stocks change on an almost daily basis, especially Boeing. Netflix $560 & Zoom $429 were unchanged.

With the Dow struggling for direction most pis withdrew to the sidelines leaving the likes of GStop & AMC marooned at overnight closes. Tesla slid $38 ($810) and Amazon fell $35 ($3270) both briefly weighing on the 500 (-10) and Nsdq down 70.

Core inflation nos rose 1•4% over the last 12 months well within Walls forecast while the CPI data showed prices rose moderately in January with underlying inflation benign. Powell later reported that rates would remain near zero for some time but gave no further insights on monetary policy.

Companies reporting included Coca Cola who reported revenues down 5% to $8•6bn in Q4 as restaurants and bars faced further curbs, shares u/c at $50. Under Armour Inc ($23) jumped over 9% as e-commerce growth surged after the athletic apparel maker beat Q4 revenue expectations and Lyft the ride hailing Co rose 4% saying it expects to be profitable in Q3 after cutting costs, shares up $3 to $56.

Very much under the radar the Russell Small caps have gained 16% ytd and 130% from March lows easily the best performer of the big 4 indexes. Very much the preserve of pis many consider the R2 is an important bellwether of the US economy. The average mrkt cap is c.$2•5bn and Tesla was a constituent not that long ago.

The market is seeing a broadening of stocks and sectors & is becoming less reliant on big tech as c.75% of the 500 trade above their 200DMA thats a remarkable situation given the economic wreckage in 2019.

On the NYSE 18•3bn were traded with risers over losers by 1•11 :1. No new lows, 49 new highs on the 500.
DJ +62 (31,438) R
SP -1 (3910)
NS -32 (13,655)
R2 -4 (1291)
WTI $58•40
10ytb 1•130%

Nos:- Oil $61•16. Vix 22.
Gold $1836. Copper $3•761.
Palm $997. Silver $26•865.
$1•385. €1•142. IDR 13,998.
MSCI (W) 2801. FF -2. DF +18.
Morning all.

It remains to be seen whether crossing the $1000 is just a flash in the pan or will be sustained. If you twist my arm I'd say more a flash....lets see at the H/Y stage. Whatever the Govt will exact their pint, now more a quart of blood by increased payments from hard pressed palm companies.

At $1000 we move into a higher band. Levy $255. Duty $93. Total $348 a $34 a ton (11%) increase. Add in all the other costs of running a plantation and it just became harder to make profits. Estates are in a Catch 22 situation, up or down on the cpo there is no way they can come out ahead. Unless they can mechanise collection hugely those fixed labour & other costs of $94m & counting are here forever and a day.

I'm convinced the only way out is for REA to merge with Mpe as a junior partner but that could be messy. I doubt the Robinows would get the price they want for a take out which would start at 100 minimum what with KLK in the background pulling the strings.
Unfortunately the obvious rarely gets acted upon so we could be stuck here for the next 5 years paying off debts and struggling to make meaningful profits or becoming self fiananced. And who knows what the cpo price will be in 2022 let alone 2026/7? Oops, it doesn't matter does it if past performance is a guide!

It remains to be seen whether crossing the $1000 is just a flash in the pan or will be sustained. If you twist my arm I'd say more a flash....lets see at the H/Y stage. Whatever the Govt will exact their pint, now more a quart of blood by increased payments from hard pressed palm companies.

At $1000 we move into a higher band. Levy $255. Duty $93. Total $348 a $34 a ton (11%) increase. Add in all the other costs of running a plantation and it just became harder to make profits. Estates are in a Catch 22 situation, up or down on the cpo there is no way they can come out ahead. Unless they can mechanise collection hugely those fixed labour & other costs of $94m & counting are here forever and a day.

I'm convinced the only way out is for REA to merge with Mpe as a junior partner but that could be messy. I doubt the Robinows would get the price they want for a take out which would start at 100 minimum what with KLK in the background pulling the strings.

Unfortunately the obvious rarely gets acted upon so we could be stuck here for the next 5 years paying off debts and struggling to make meaningful profits or becoming self fiananced. And who knows what the cpo price will be in 2022 let alone 2026/7? Oops, it doesn't matter does it if past performance is a guide!

Rea 166 (59)
Cpo $739 ($1005)
Cif(R) $1067e

Oil $53
Gold $1578

Ftse 7447
All 4142
DJ 29,277 (R)
SP 3352 (R)
NS 9628

$1•291
€1•183
IDR 13,695

Anglo 600
Dkl 2•90
Mpe 686

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,972,148 (113,850)*
Indonesia 1,174,779 (31,976)•

* 12,364 cases
* 1052 deaths
• 8700 cases
• 213 deaths

Inevitably the Dow would see sellers early on taking profits after the rally in Feb. The Nsdq seemed immune to such matters and continued its stellar run up this year climbing another 50 to 13,742 in the first hour. Markets have been supported in the main by the Feds helicopter money, upbeat corporate earnings, recent declines in new infections and job losses easing. However dark clouds are ever present.

New variants of the virus are troubling, any glitch in vaccine rollouts, possible inflationary pressures, rates could soon tick up and Bidens policy vis a vis China and global trade needs explaining. Any combination of the above could halt markets in their tracks. BOA analysts call a 5%-10% fall for stocks in Q1 as over exuberance grips investors.

Energy initially set the tone for the day, crude falling from $58•62 to $57•86 taking the 30 down 140 in the first hour. Banks skidded tracking falls in US Treasury yields and companies reporting Q4 nos came under selling pressure, Cisco off 1% to $59. Glu Mobile jumped $3 to $13 on a $2•4bn buyout from Electronic Arts and Gucci lipstick maker Coty ($7) tumbled 15% due to weak demand for its make up and associated products wiping millions off its revenues. LYFT and Twitter both beat Wall expectations continuing the strong run of earnings 'beats.' Twitter up $4 to $62.

GamesStop crashed back to earth losing another c.20% to $50, overshadowed by the Bitcoin bonanza. As a bricks and mortar shop operation its been caught between the transition to on line games and digital forcing the Co to close over 400 shops as shoppers decamped to on line. As has happened to AMC off 13% to $5 in morning deals the hype was soon punctured, the shorts exacting their revenge. At least AMC tapped the mrkt before the slump raising $305m in order to avoid bankruptcy.

Bitcoin is approaching $50,000 after news of Musks interest, albeit a tiny 8% investment such is the Musk hype to propel his calls higher. Other cryptos Riot Blockchain and Marathon Patent both rose strongly for the second day as did Dodgecoin up 1250% over the past year.

Early risers on the big board were Boeing up $4 to $215, UH, Walgreens & Big Mac going down Chevron, WD, Amex & Dow Inc. FAANGs (3) up and (2) down (Amz & Apple) traded quietly and stay at homes Zoom up $5 to $415 and Flix jumped $13 to $560 despite getting to cash neutral Flix will still have to spend a ton of money to keep ahead of the chasing pack whether by own content or expensive buy-ins.

On the NYSE advances out paced decliners 1•54:1 on 14bn traded, 40 new 52s no new lows on the 500.
DJ -10 (31,376)
SP -4 (3911)
NS -8 (13687)
R2 +8.(1295) R
WTI $58•22
10ytb 1•159%

Nos: Oil $61•03. Vix 21•63.
Gold $1843. Copper $3•763.
Palm $1005. Silver 27•470.
$1•382. €1•139. IDR 13,985.
MSCI(W) 2796. FF +39. DF+79.
Morning all.

It must be very dispiriting for the senders of 50 odd uncalled for and unwanted stuff that fills up my in box everyday and never ever gets read. If Louis Navallier the arch culprit doesn't know I bin his missives as soon as they pop up....I'm telling him now, Louis your wasting your time.
Obviously there isn't an algorithm that tells them how many are actually read else they wouldn't bother. Its almost but not quite on a par with ex hard up celebs like Vodermoan, Beurk & Parkinson earning coin punting stuff we do not want, especially burial services.

Personally I'd rather by a call option on a Hippo or Hyena than have anything to do with that lot. Why cannot these ex has'beens retire gracefully to their Berkshire mansions and watch Countdown the retirement home for the hard up.

Generally speaking oil cos sp's
usually rise along with the oil price in expectations that revs will go up. Obvious case where this does not apply is cpo whose price has been shooting up since January leaving palm company values flat. Cpo opened the year at $978 and currently trades at $1015, cif(R) $1070. Palm shares performance ytd:-

Anglo +18
Dkl +0•55
Mpe +5
Rea u/c

From the low cpo price of $573 in June palm co prices have stagnated (see below) while cpo has risen c.$440 (77%). Hon exception DKL.

Anglo 480
Dkl 2•55
Mpe 580
Rea 53

Not the sector to be invested in, hasn't always been this way and covid has no doubt played a part in damaging investor sentiment. There is still time for palm company values to catch up with the run'away cpo price. The big question is will it? Those invested here think it it will, the mrkt otherwise.

Covid-19
05:30

UK 3,959,784 (112,798)*
Indonesia 1,166,079 (31,763)•

* 114,104 cases
* 333 deaths
• 8242 cases
• 207 deaths

Energy stocks led Wall higher at Mondays open after another positive days trading in Asia, Europe and London. February is proving a stellar month to date the Dow is up c.1352 (4•5%), the 500 up (5%) & the tech heavy Nsdq up 6%. Its the 6th straight gain for the main 4 indexes. Feb is not one of the best months for stock gains, over the time frame used, (1950-2020) its risen on 40 occasions v 31 down years for an av return of 0•12%. Last years Feb was down 8% v this year up 4%.

Currently 66% of those Co's reporting Q4 nos have beaten expectations for profits and sales, tailwinds are blowing mrkts higher with hopes the budget package which is likely to include $1400 stimulus cheques, will kick start parts of the economy not seeing any upturn, for instance retail on the High St. So far 33m doses have been given with new virus cases down 25%.

Its not just equities rising, commodities are showing up well except Gold down 4% but the big gainer is Bitcoin which broke through $40,000 last week and got a further boost when Tesla said it would start accepting coins as payment for its cars and other products. Bitcoin has risen over 300% along with other exotically named cryptos like Dodgecoin which was started as a joke. Tesla has invested $1•5bn in the cryptocurrency (8% of the companies liquid assets). The Jury is out as to whether Bitcon will gain broad acceptance as a currency. Many say Currencies and Gold etc,.... will become digital in the years ahead. Current Bitcon value $47,000+.

Congress has approved the budget plan which would allow the relief bill to be fast tracked without the need for the 'Reds' support. Tres Sec Yellen says barring any last minute hiccup the US should be back to full employment by 2022. Trumps impeachment trial starts this week but looks a non event as it would require 17 Republicans to cross the floor to send him down.

Early gainers on the big board were WD, Cisco & GM all ahead of Q nos this week. Chevron on the back of crude hitting a ytd high ($57•84) rose $2 to $91, GS, Cat & JPMC all in the black. Heading down Apple, P&G, Big Mac and Nike. Stay at homes were flat to down, Flix u/c, Amazon down $33 and Zoom off $6 after Fridays $31 surge to $414 on morning action.

WallStreetBets fave counter GamesStop slipped $4 to $60 the low for the session. AMC fell 10% to $6, one month ago AMC hit $348. FAANGs were mostly lower to flat as the Nsdq traded in a narrow 100 point range. As Londons ftse closed up 34 the Dow was ahead 126. The Dow even for most of the afternoon picked up 135 from 2:00 to close at a record. On the NYSE 15•3bn stocks were traded risers 3•2:1 over decliners on 42 new 52 highs.
DJ +238 (31,386) R
SP +29 (3916) R
NS +91 (13,695) R
R2 +35 (1287) R
WTI $58•43
10ytb 1•160%

Nos:- Oil $61•05. Vix 21.
Gold $1842. Copper $3•688.
Palm $1015. Silver $27•660.
$1•378. €1•141. IDR 14,002.
MSCI(W) 2796. FF-2. DF-3.
Morning all.