Member Info for JohnLewis79

Rea 177 (62)
Cpo $824 ($967)
Cif(R) $1032

Oil $65
Gold $1543

Ftse 7622
All 4229
DJ 28,940
SP 3283
NS 9251
R2 1676 (R)

$1•301
€1•169

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•70
Mpe 716

Covid-19
05:00

UK 3,211,576 (84,767)*
Indonesia 858,043 (24,951)•

* 47,525 cases
* 1564 deaths
• 11,278 cases
• 306 deaths

A couple of 100 up and down 'pointers' in the morning session set the tone for the day, one of directionless moves and jittery investors. The fallout from last weeks Capitol riot has kept a lid on investor optimism. Valuations are stretched to the upper level and could snap back at any moment given record infections and on Tuesday 4327 fatalities a one day record. The roll out of vaccinations is having teething troubles as most expected.

The House will vote on Wed as to impeaching Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors. If they vote to 'dump' Trump he will have to face trial sometime after Biden is in the Oval Office. Mike Pence has ruled out invoking the 25th, saying it was not in the best interests of the Nation. However by impeaching Trump that rules him out for running again for the highest office in the land or any Govt job. That's a major consideration for Nancy Pelosi, Trumps No1 hater extraordinaire.

Starting on Jan 26th, US Airlines will insist all passengers provide proof of a negative Covid-19 test before boarding a flight. No reaction from US air stocks, this was a 'done deal' and went down well among frequent fliers.
On the markets stock news was plentiful. Target a huge store conglomerate saw sales jump 17% in Nov & Dec shares lost $1 ($198) and Ford Motor reported China car sales up 6% its highest since 2014, no move in the stock at $9•79, they need some of the Musk magic.

Visa ($210) and fintech have called off their $5•3bn merger due to threatened anti competition litigation from the DOJ. Intel added $4 to $57 on news of current CEO Bob Swan being replaced by Gelsinger of VMware. FAANGs were back on morning investor shopping lists, Apple up $2 ($131), Amazon added $65 ($3186), Flix up $16 at $510, & Google gained $12 to $1749.

Tesla hit $858 in early deals but sellers soon got the upper hand knocking the price to $838 mid morning. Zoom the other pis fave continued North adding $20 to $377 up $46 from its 5 day low. Many think Zoom is here to stay. On the 500, (7/11) sectors closed up on the day led by Defensives the likes of P&G, J&J, Philip Morris and Coke.

On the NYSE advances beat decliners by 1•15:1 with 44 new 52s, no lows on 13•5bn traded.
DJ -8 (31,060)
SP +9 (3810)
NS +81 (12974)
R2 -10 (1205)
WTI $52•81
10ytb 1•107%

Nos: Oil $55•90. Vix 22. Gold $1839. Copper $3•616. Palm $967/$1030. $1•364. €1•123. IDR 14,095. MSCI(W)2740. FF +14. DF+127.
Morning all.

At near Half time vols in REA reached 97•1k ( Buys 58•7k Sells 38•4k). Buys outpacing sells 1•5:1, shares bucking the trend, UP 1(better check that up 1).
If I didn't know better I'd extend my 2020 sp forecast close of 75 to 2021. Thats a near 30% jump from here which looks a stretch on paper given that by all accounts cpo prices will fall back in H2 if the fore'casters are half right.
We might be at or near 2021 highs already. However good the TU is, i suspect the mrkt will focus on other matters, any other matters, limiting any sp increase. They usually do when it comes to the demon palm.

Anglo & Mpe have both reported excellent nos for 2020 and are optimistic for 2021 yet shares barely improved. That makes me think REA will join the Society of Non Movers & Sidetrackers. I fear I might have to jump out of this frying pan as I cannot abide another year of going nowhere monotony.

Its a risk I'm prepared to take.
I like Dkl prospects but worry the Ivorian Govt might get the leech sucking Indonesian habit. So it will have to be outside the palm sector. I have a few candidates lined up
as possibles. If any of you have a sure fire certainty ring me.

Rea 184 (58)
Cpo $832 ($987)
Cif(R) $1032

Oil $65
Gold $1551

Ftse 7618
All 4226
DJ 28,907 (R)
SP 3288 (R)
NS 9274 (R)

$1•29
€1•16
IDR 13,650

Anglo 568
Dkl 3•70
Mpe 720

US stocks rose 90 in early dealings despite the background of further demonstrations being planned for Washington. Hot heads are calling for 'War.' The FBI have identified many involved in the assault on the Capitol Building and will be having 'collars' felt shortly. By lunch sellers had sent the Dow 60 lower on reports that the Virginia Reserve had been drafted in to bolster the 10,000 troops expected by the wk end. Demonstrators can expect a warm welcome.

In New York stocks in focus included GM a rare event for the renowned Auto maker. CEO Mary Barry outlined plans to deliver its first electric vans to FedEx this year, shares up $5 to $50 a 10 year high.
Tesla which has registered Tesla India Motors in New Delhi plans to open an R&D Centre in Bangaluru. Shares gained $41 to $852. Overseas expansion is a major driver of the stock.

Uber up $5 to $50 plans to service over 1400 cities and towns this year offering ride options. Zoom bounced off recent lows on news of 1m Zoom phone seat sales achieved a milestone for the Company. Zoom plans to sell $1•5bn of Class A Common, shares jumped $20 to $358. Boeing came off $7 late as nervous holders sold the stock down to $205 ahead of investigations into the crash of the 737-500.

Energy and Financials are among the best 3 sectors this year and have benefitted by investors selling big tech to rotate into sectors sensitive to the hoped for economic recovery. Goldman hit a record high of $302 & JPMC up $2 to $140 ahead of Q4 nos on Friday. Banks have been tracking the rising yield on the 10yt/bill up 25% ytd and Energy the WTI oil price nearing $56 up 11% ytd.

Russell Small Caps have risen c.8% ytd, are seen by investors as having the best growth prospects this year. Many financials are in the R2.
Overall 2020 earnings of the 500 is expected to fall 10% year on year but charge back c.20% in Q1 2021 helped by the Fed pumping $tns into the economy.

On the NYSE 15•2bn shares were traded risers outpacing decliners 2•06:1 no new lows, 87 new highs.
DJ +60 (31,069)
SP +2 (3801)
NS -10 (12,892)
R2 +20 (1215) R

Nos: Oil $57•40. Vix 23.
Gold $1861. Copper $3•646.
Palm $989/$1032. $1•368.
€1•121. IDR 14,083. MSCI(W)2734.
FF +15. DF +85
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:00

UK 3,164,051 (83,203)*
Indonesia 846,765 (24,645)•

* 45,533 cases
* 1243 deaths
• 10,047 cases
• 302 deaths

I note Dekel Agri recent news updates of the company progress. They are showing the other old stagers the way ahead in 2021.
Recently a Non Exec taking Dkl shares in lieu of cash payments is an endorsement of the company. Thats not a first but might be in the palm oil business. Shares are up from 4•2 to 6•0 (43%) ytd so they must be doing something right.

Revised trades indicative only. Vol 94,455 buys 58,656 sells 35,799.

rugs has pointed out that all those 20,101 sells were most certainly an error on MS. The London Stock Exch had a total of 94,455 traded on the day. Apologies for the duff info!

Warren Buffets favourite stock mrkt indicator points to a looming correction in equity mrkts which are now as overvalued as they were during the .com boom & pre 2007/8 crash.
His method aggregates the valuations of global publicly traded companies and divides it by global GDP. A nos over 100 points to over valued stocks relative to the world economy. That nos hit 120 on Sunday night.

My method is simpler. When Tesla is worth more than our top 5 bigest companies combined, I know something is wrong. I don't need a Masters Distinction in Economics, A level Calculus or the madness of crowds to tell me that. I get the picture.

Luckily for me where I'm invested such concerns hardly apply. Its the more mundane events that send my shares down like buys out-running sells, prices surging to near 10 year highs and increasing demand which does the damage. Who needs Buffets methodology?

More down than up in the Far East and Pan Pacifics. Leading the falls S.Korea off nearly 3% some top slicing after the 10% start to the year and a spike of 537 new infections and 25 new deaths knocked investors optimism.

Malaysias main index fell nearly 2% in early dealings as the Govt declared a State of Emergency to curb the infection spread. A 14 day lockdown has been imposed in KL and 5 States.
Malaysia's KLPI is down 45 points on covid worries and other local concerns. To date the index has gained nearly 2% the main Ftse Bursa Malaysia down 1•3% ytd. Indonesias JSX Composite up 7% ytd.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 3,118,518 (81,960)*
Indonesia 836,718 (24,343)•

* 46,169 cases
* 529 deaths
• 8692 cases
• 214 deaths

Nothing goes up forever or climbs in a straight line, not even wonder stock Tesla manages that and so Wall's main indexes took an early breather falling 265 soon after the bell. Investors booked profits after the stellar run up in December, (Dow up 967 & SP up 134) and decided to wait and see how the vaccine distribution was being implemented, whether on a just in time basis or ad hoc delivery. Being safe on the sidelines waiting to see how events pan out looks the safest place. Turmoil in Washington continues to dog mrkts, the Democrats urging Pence to invoke the 25th and have Trump removed from office and now the FBI have warned of armed demonstrations across the country are planned for Jan 20 the day of Biden's inauguration.

Stocks in focus included the aforementioned Tesla which ran into some early selling slipping to $826, closed $61 lower at $818 and Twitter fell 6% to $45 in early deals knocking $2•5bn off the Co value thanks to Mr Trump. Boeing fell $6 ($206) after a 737-500 crashed minutes after take off from Jakarta killing all 62 on board. God knows what would have happened if the plane had been a MaxJet.

Healthcare which comprises 62 stocks in the SP 500 sector was up 6 to 1375 for a record 5th straight session high boosted by Eli Lilly ($186) up $20 on back of good phase 3 test results for its Alzheimers drug said to cut the rate of decline in cognition and function in patients by 33% if caught early.

Financials also bucked the downtrend gaining on back of improving Treasury yields (1•151%) and on Friday Citi, JPMC & Wells Fargo get Q4 earnings under way. FAANGs were steady to lower, Amazon down $47 and Apple $129 took up the bottom slot on the big board. Whichever way Apple moves it moves the major indexes. As London closed down 75 the Dow and 500 had pulled back most of the early falls the Nsdq still at days lows. A desultory afternoon session saw the Dow & 500 slip back.

On the NYSE 14•08bn shares changed hands losers outrunning winners by 1•53:1, 49 new 52 highs, no new lows.
DJ -89 (31,009)
SP -25 (3780)
NS -203 (12,902)
R2 +5 (1195)
WTI $52•26
10ytb 1•151%

Nos: Oil $55•62. Vix 24.
Gold $1850. Copper $3•583.
Palm $982/$1090. $1•353.
€1•113. IDR 14,175.
MSCI(W) 2730. DF -7. DF +10.
Morning all.

Some hefty get out at any price deals were recorded late on, a desperate 20,000 at 51 taken and 2 more 20,000 sells at 56 & 58 then 22 deals (16 at 20,101 & 5 at 20,000) at prices ranging from 56-59, taking the days volume to over 540,000. Sells around 484,000.

Looks like an iis has had enough and wants to move on. The last time an iis pulled out saw a prolonged slump in the sp. Coming as it does before the TU seems perverse unless they have got wind of a capital raise in the works or some other nasty lurking in the undergrowth.

Morning Hydro. Can't complain, no point is there? Been here for over a year now doing my thaaaang....having bght up in the 140s but got my avc down to 67ish luv adding to a loser!
The sp is one stubborn mfckr refuses to recognise its key selling price has doubled from lows and trades as if Carey St is next stop....
I check the posts on G off and on, some recovery there but still way south of what I sold at yonks ago. I see boyo, bunks & yourself holding the Fort but a lot of the regulars have long gone.

Comenvog bght in here some months ago he obviously has a strong constitution. I intend to hold until TU in about 4 wks time, then reassess. Gluck.

What a crazy world we are living in. Donald Deluded damn near got in again and something called bitcoin is valued at over $40,000 and c.18 million Americans are out of work and I can't make an honest buck here and.....

The USPGA have taken the 2022 PGA Major Golf Championship away from Bedminster N.J one of Trumps flagship Golf Courses. This smacks of vindictiveness imo. Will the R&A take Trump Turnberry off 'The Open' list of courses to hold the bigest Major in World Golf? Luckily for them Royal St Georges is staging the event this year
saving them from having to appease the USPGA.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 3,072,349 (81,431)*
Indonesia 828,026 (24,129)

* 54,940 cases
* 563 deaths
• 9640 cases
• 182 deaths

South Korea led Asian mrkts higher this morning up 28 at lunch to an all time high as locals jumped in fearing losing out on the steepest January rally in years. The KOSPI is up 10% this year boosted by the likes of bellwether coupons Samsung, Hyundai & the semi conductor sector now worth more than Energy.
Twelve years ago the global energy sector was 5x more valuable. Inflation averaged at 0•5% through 2020 far below the Govt 2% target.

Investors tracked the Dows performance on Friday and expect Biden to announce a stimulus package in the $trillions this week. Moves to impeach Trump was of no concern to mrkts. Asia has come through the worst of the virus with lower debt levels than Western economies and if vaccines halt the spread of infections Asia is poised to lead global mrkts this year.

The WHO estimated in Jan the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate to be c.2% (SARS 10%, MERS 34%). In S.Korea infections crossed 69,000 (a spike of 450 yesterday) with 1140 fatalities out of a pop of c.51m that's a case rate of 20 deaths per 1m pop (UK 1196). Tokyo is closed. Malaysia, Singapore and Australia are trading lower.

Nos: Oil $55•26. Vix 21•6.
Gold $1831. Copper $3•627.
Palm $987/$1090. $1•351.
€1•109. IDR 14,120. FF +11.
DF -150.
Morning all.