Member Info for JohnLewis79

Jan 11 & 12 closed.

The threat to impeach Trump days before he leaves for the 1st Tee is but a sideswipe compared to Twitter, Fbk & Instagram banning him from the airwaves. Losing his Twitter account and unable to 'tweet' to his 80 odd million devotees sent him nuts. This is an assault on free speech but in Twitters defence 'incitement to violence' was rightly a bannable offence though many think it was politically motivated.

It has been pointed out by others that dictatorial regimes have access to Twitter including the Ayatollah. Some have in the past threatened genocide to Israel, the US and called for homosexuals to be thrown off tall buildings. As far as we know Trump has advocated doing neither but what did for him was his full hearted support of the mob marching on the Capitol and five people dying including a policeman protecting the State Capitol building. That underlined his unsuitability for office and the madness in thinking he could overturn the election result proved he had 'lost his marbles.'

Its said he could build his own social media platform to continue the fight but I suspect he will return to Florida a chastened man, more fit for rounds of golf than hopes of a return to the West Wing. Few ex Presidents make any marks in their afterlife and Trump won't be one of them.

Palm Oil prices are likely to remain high in Q1/2021 but 'fall dramatically' in H2 as palm oil and oil seeds pick up, so said two leading sector analysts.
Prices would be propelled by the soyoil mrkt with the crop drought in S.America squeezing supplies and China stockpiling. Malaysia's benchmark Cpo price jumped 6% in wk1 trading at 3817 ringgit its highest in nearly 10 years.

Global oilseed output is forecast to rise from 570mt to 615mt while palm oil supply will continue to be in tight balance as import demand rises but supply growth is low. Mielke estimates world palm oil output will rebound by 4•4mt in 2021 (Indonesia 3•4mt/Mal 0•3mt).

(USD = 4•038 ringgit)

Rea 179 (57)
Cpo $838 ($992)
Cif(R) $1090

Oil $65
Gold $1562

Ftse 7588
All 4207
DJ 28,824
SP 3265
NS 9179

$1•306
€1•175
IDR 13,762

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•65
Mpe 712

Covid-19
04:00

UK 3,017,409 (80,868)*
Indonesia 818,386 (23,947)•

* 59,937 cases
* 1035 deaths
• 15,046 cases
• 194 deaths

Global cases 90•1m

Global deaths 1•9
USA 381,400
Brazil 203,000
India 151,000
Mexico 133,000
UK 81,000
Italy 78,400
Russia 61,400
Iran 56,000
Spain 52,000
Colombia 46,000

At one time REA was talked about in the same breath as Mpe & Anglo. Not now they ain't. Dkl a comparative minnow compared to REA and not on anyone's radar 2 years ago is now valued higher.

Its revenues pale in comparison to REAs at just £22m (2020) and forecast to hit £25m this year (net cash/(debt) (£15m). A recent Broker forecast the business to be worth c.£32m. If Dkl are worth £32m on £25m revenues (op earnings £12m) how come REA with operating earnings of c.£80m are worth £7m less at todays prices? 'Tis a mystery to me.

At Dkls current sp rate of progress (doubling since Jan 2019) they will be in the All Share Ranking list before REA. Now who wudda thunk that?

UK All share Ranking Index as at 23/12/2020.

1 Unilever (£113bn)
2 RDS(A+B) (103bn)
3 AZ (£95bn)
4 HSBC (£79bn)
5 Rio T (£70bn)

442 Mpe (£349m)
519 Anglo (£224m)

666 Trinity Exp (38•1m)

REA at 86-87 would get onto the list.

Rea 179 (57)
Cpo $829 ($992)/($1090)

Oil $65
Gold $1554

Ftse 7598
All 4214
DJ 28957 (R)
SP 3275 (R)
NS 9203 (R)

$1•306
€1•176
IDR 13,850

Anglo 570
Dkl 3•85
Mpe 716

I forgot to mention on palm wkly nos REA buys outpaced sells 2:1 but you knew that as the sp fell.

Covid-19
UK 06:00

UK 2,957,472 (79,833)*
Indonesia 803,340 (23,753)•

* 68,053 cases
* 1325 deaths
• 5617 cases
• 233 deaths

Dec 1941 and 9/11 were two days forevermore remembered in infamy. Add Jan 6th, 2020 when a mob of unruly Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill the seat of US Govt. Four people lost their lives as the mob unheeded ransacked Congress. The last time that happened was when Britain burned the Capitol down in 1814. Such is the country divided. Another division is that between Wall St and Main St one that plays out everyday.

Yesterday the Dow scaled new heights soon after the bell adding 100 and all looked well for another positive day until a grim jobs report had investors hitting the sell buttons. The report showed the economy shed 140,000 jobs in December, the first time in 8 months as the country buckled under the strain of increasing infections and fatalities. Manufacturing and Construction added over 150,000 jobs but Hotel & Leisure lost 500,000 mainly in NY State & California. Thursday saw a record one day death toll of 4000. In London the Mayor said the virus was out of control in the Capitol. Distribution is going to be a logistical nightmare for the Biden Govt.

The Dow continued South but a late rally of 300 took the Dow to an up close. One stock bucking all known negatives is Tesla up another $51 to $867 pushing its Mrkt Cap to over $820bn, UP an astonishing $100bn this week. To put that into a UK context Tesla is worth more than RDS(A+B), GSK, HSBC, AZ & BHP combined. Day traders are flocking to the stock which is seen as easy pickings. That should be a red flag to investors but no'one wants to get off this ride. The electric vehicle / green space is where everyone wants to be invested in 2021.

Airlines were doing no business and Cruises were back in dry Dock. Hotels & Leisure were lacking bookings
the summer is going to be long, hard and dry for many in the sector particularly Nevada. Crude put on $2 to $52•73 taking Chevron to the top of the big board with Big Mac and Coca Cola. Going down Boeing, 3M, Honeywell and GS.

On the NYSE, 14•4 bn deals were completed buys outpacing sells 1•10:1 with 84 new 52s no new lows.
DJ +56 (31,098) R
SP +21 (3824) R
NS + 134 (13,201) R
R2 -10 (1190)
WTI $52•73
10ytb 1•120%

Morning all.

Cpo added $14 on the wk to close at $992 and averages $989 ytd, up 21% on last year. Cif (R) $1050(e).

DKL once again the star of the sector up 1•35 (31%). Anglo gained 32, Mpe up 10 & REA off 1•25. KLPI added 115 (1•6%) on the week. I saw on another board Mpe was on a pe/r of 80. Doubt that very much as that would equate to a sp of 4480. Lets go for a more Conservative 12x this years earnings.
REA usually report a pe/r of n/a, maybe for the first time since 2014 we will get an actual pe/r number. I'm not too hung up on pe/ratios preferring operational earnings as my main guide of the companies pulse.
Have a good wk/end all.

South Korea is the runaway leader of Oriental mrkts at the end of wk1. The KOSPI is up 9•7% after a 31% gain last year. S.Korea's economy principally relies on exporting Autos, Electronics, textiles, Steel, Pharma, Aerospace and is the World leader in semiconductors. SK's main imports are oil, gas and iron ore.

2) TAIEX up 5%
3) STI up 5%
4) JSX up 4•7%
5) SHZ up 3•7%
6) SH up 2•6%
7) AUS up 2•6%
8) HK up 2•4%
9) BSE up 2•2%
10) MAL ~~

Of the Eastern mrkts above HK Jakarta, Singapore & Sydney all lost last year.

REA is getting the reputation of one of Buffets stocks of mass destruction...or as I prefer to call them 'Rat poison' squared as the stock reflects a growing despondency at its constipated share price and
you know to never turn your back on a rabid dog because if the mutt don't get you......... Rea will.

I am spooked into a sort of confused submission holding on here while most have left the building. Still from the ashes of investors hopes and building on the buzz of (-------------) you fill in, REA is about to become flavour of the year. Just not sure what year.

Eventually my bad mouthing this farce (REA) will have positive results of that i'm not sure. Have a nice day and do you wanna hold REA over the weekend!!!???

Asia follows the rises on Wall.

BSE +416 (1%)
TK +582 (2%)
HK +350 (1%)
SH -10
SH -13
SK +97 (3%)
TAIEX +235 (2%)
JSX +102 (2%)
MAL -2
STI +59 (2%)
ASX +46 (1%)

The Indonesian Palm Oil Assoc (GAKPI) will petition the Govt to reformulate its biodiesel blending rates/revise export levy if palm prices continue at 10 yr highs and hit 4000 ringgit pt.

Indonesia biodiesel blending capacity was 10•2mt in 2020 set to rise to 12•2mt this year and 13•2mt in 2022.
Its unlikely atm that B40 will happen later this/next year unless the mix is rejigged. Crude at $60 would help but thats a distance away.

Rea 186* (58)
Cpo $825 ($988)/($1050).

Oil $66
Gold $1551

Ftse 7575
All 4203
DJ 28,745
SP 3253
NS 9129 (R)

$1•312
€1•182
IDR 13,855

* a 16p rise on 17,000 traded! Since then I remember one other double digit rise (14?). No idea why the big jump as I was probably in shock.

Covid-19
04:30

UK 2,889,419 (78,508)*
Indonesia 797,723 (23520)•

* 52,618 cases
* 1162 deaths
• 9321 cases
• 224 deaths

I don't think anything reads across to REA, that might sound flippant but facts be facts. Expect operating earnings to be at record level c.$150m
below that who knows all sorts of nasties might crop up....

There's no stopping equities an early 70 tick up at the bell sent stocks to record intraday highs the Dow hitting 31,193.(+364) before lunch. Even unloved big techs joined in along with Banks tracking the 10ytb (1•084%), Materials and Covid stocks (Novavax $124 up $4).
Wall dismissed the shocking storming of Congress as a one off as the mrkt closed at record highs on Wed, that's how much they were concerned. However Americas enemies will be rejoicing at the spectacle of the tired, the poor the huddled masses yearning to breathe free trashing the birthplace of American democracy.

Georgia duly elected 2 Democrats to the Senate and with Biden almost in the Oval office the market is betting the Democrats will be more sympathetic to a larger fiscal stimulus to nurse the economy back to health via direct cash and infrastructure spending. The comprehensive jobless report is out Friday after a surprising drop in the filings last week. No material change is expected.

Stocks in focus? You guessed it you cannot keep Mr Tesla out of the news. Now the Worlds richest man ($186bn) knocking Bezos off top spot his 20% shot up another $73 to $829 after hours. Long-time bear of the stock RBC Capital graciously owned up to being 1200% wrong on Tesla and upgraded the stock to 'sector perform.' Broker recommends are split 13 buys, 13 holds & 14 sells.

Walgreens Boots Alliance topped Walls Q4 estimates on earnings and revenues, shares up $3 to $46 topping the big board at lunch ahead of JPMC GS, Apple & Msoft. Boeing ($213) had the sulks stuck mid table not where you expect to see them. Amex, Coca Cola & 3M were among the also rans.
'Stay at homes' were wanted in early deals, Zoom up $2 ($346), Amazon +$62 ($3200) & Flix put on $8 ($509) reducing the losses of the last few sessions. 'Bridgerton' Netflix's new period saga helped the Co to record viewership and 'eyeballs' spent goggling over Dec and the N.Year. Some 63m homes have seen the series in the 4 wks since release.
Bridgerton was No 1 in 76 Countries but not the 2020 top dog that went to the Spanish crime saga 'Money Heist.' Unbelievable & The Queens Gambit were my 2 Flix faves.

At the close all 4 major indexes inc the World MSCI were at record highs. On the NYSE advances outpaced decliners 1•72:1 with 103 new 52s no new lows on the 500. The Nsdq Comp posted 346 new highs.

DJ +212 (31,041) R
SP +56 (3804) R
NS +316 (12,940) R
R2 +15 (1200) R
WTI $51•04
10ytb 1•102%

Nos: Oil $54•53. Vix 22.
Gold $1911. Copper $3•715.
Palm $987. $1•356. €1•106.
IDR 14,020. MSC1(W) 2700.
FF +6. DF +105.
Morning all.