Member Info for JohnLewis79

As we know its been a horrid year for REA investors the price falling 109 while the cpo price rebounded spectacularly from (c.$860 to $1030 cif Rotterdam) or the prices i use $800-$980, same c.22 % increase.

The Robinows who are the major holders cannot be best pleased but the virus laid waste to commodity prices and everything else so there was little they could do to influence the shares outside of buying and the Directors duly put hands in pockets. The last Co i invested in the Board religiously avoided buying Co stock.
As it turned out 3 years later that was a good decision.
What disturbed me was the inability of the sp to follow the rebound in cpo prices from $646 (June end) to the Dec close of $980....but not enough to stop me buying! Listed below sp's of other palms Companies at end June.
Anglo 491
Dkl 2•35
Mpe 510
Rea 57

All the above have risen markedly except REA. The mrkt had got wind of something (trading update on June 6th was positive) so not that, shares u/c at 65. Yet the shares closed at 58 by end of the month. Was it just a 'down' on REA or something in the woodwork that REA was singled out for the bums-rush treatment by investors? We should call in the Ju Ju men.
On September 9 the shares closed at the years low of 47 after 45 on lack of interest in the Co, Covid-19 & Sector woes. This triggered a big boost to volumes which shot up through the rest of the month, some wks over 500,000 dealt, mostly on the buy side but had no effect on the sp. There was no other news to concern holders the stock ending the year at 56-60.

So where from here? We know the TU is going to be much better than last year year and shock horror, a small profit might be announced despite the Govts best efforts to skin alive plantation companies. The usurpation of palm revenues could backfire spectacularly if cpo prices come back to the $650s. That would scupper B40 and palm profits throwing the industry into disarray. Many will turn it in reckoning its not worth the candle. A sector whose companies cannot profit to invest in the future is a sector heading for trouble.

Regrettably i think this is going to be the topic of interest in 2021 and the mrkt will fixate on this regardless of the nos leaving sp's to drift. Being useless at forecasting sp's i'd wager we won't see 100 in 2021 despite the global economy becoming unglued and continuing strong palm demand.
That sounds counter-intuitive but REA has 'form' & I change my mind more times than spins of the roulette wheel.
Morning all.

Below are a few covid-19 statistics as of Nov 2020. High income countries have bought c.54% of all available vaccines which equates to 4bn doses. On a per person basis Canada has bought (350m) doses = 9 doses pp.
To date their are c.200 vaccine candidates being developed and in terms of pricing the Pfizer/BioNTech sells at $19•50 ($13bn rev) the Oxford considerably less but no figs available.

Dose Vol ordered by Country:
EU 1•6 bn (22%)
India 1•5 bn
US 1•0 bn
Canada 358m (5%)
UK 357m
Indonesia 338m
Japan 290m
Brazil 196m

Vaccines per manufacturer:
Oxford 2•6bn
Novavax 1•4bn
Gsk 732m
Pfizer 711m
Moderna 407m
Janssen 374m
Sinovac 292m
Curvevac 225m
Other 463m
(Source Duke Global Health &
Gates Foundation)

Rea 170 (58)
Cpo $827 ($978)
Sp/cpo 5x (17x)

Oil $68
Gold $1527

Ftse 7604
All 4232
DJ 28,869 R
SP 3258 R
NS 9092 R

$1•313
€1•175
IDR 13,889

Covid-19
04:00

UK 2,542,065 (74,125)*
Indonesia 751,270 (22,329)•

* 53,285 cases
* 613 deaths
• 8072 cases
• 191 deaths

For a change i thought I would present the 2020 % gainers/losers in league table performance.

Dkl +18%
Anglo u/c
KLPI -6%
Mpe -8%
Rea -66%

Silver +48%
Cpko +46%*
Copper +26%
Gold +25%
Palm +22%•
Brent -22%
WTI -23%
* (11 months)
• (not cif Rotterdam)

$ +4•5%
IDR +1•2%
€ -4•4%

1 Year
NSDQ +45%
SHZ +33%
SK +31%
TAIEX +22%
AIM(UK) +20%
BSE +16%*
TK +16%
S&P +15%
SH +13%
MSCI(W) +12%
R2 +10%
DJI +6%
S/CAP +5%
FTSE-BMA +2%
ASX -2%
HK -5%
JSX -5%
250 -7%
ALL -13%
STI -13%
FTSE -15%
* India open today.

All AIM was the best UK mrkt by a stretch this year and is up 32% since 2019. Over the same 2 year period the ftse is down 2%. Of the 7 declining mrkts the UK was represented by 3 and the Pan Pacifics by 4. The Top 5 winning Exchanges were:-

1.US
2. ASIA
3. ASIA
4. ASIA
5. UK

I think that's all the nos done for 2020. Here's hoping the UK can have a better year as we have a lot of ground to make up when you think the ftse was trading around 6500 in July 2016 (the Dow 17,950).
The ftse, very much the sick man of global mrkts has gone nowhere while the Dow had an annual growth rate of 13% over the period and put on 12,656 points from 7/2016 to today.

Closed

Covid-19
06:30

UK 2,488,780 (73,512)*
Indonesia 743,198 (22,138)•

* 55,892 cases
* 964 deaths
• 8074 cases
• 194 deaths

DJ +197 (30,606) R
SP +24 (3756) R
NS +43 (12,888) R
R2 +1 (1119)
WTI $ 48•42
10ytb 0•919%

Covid-19 did its best to railroad global economies in 2020 but equities proved its match ending a tumultuous year with record closes in Japan, China & the US. Its been a post pandemic world for a good few months as the 'Old Bull' bloodied the Bears into submission, consigning the Bear Mrkt to the shortest in history.

No need to go into the why's & wherefores but a huge part of the recovery was due to the Fed pumping in massive amounts of money to save the economy from a 1929/1933 depression or revisiting the 07/08 recession. Parts of the US economy are performing well but continuing high infections, death rates and jobless claims (787,000) last week are still a big drag. Much will depend on the roll out and take up of the vaccines. A lot could still go wrong, the Bears await.

High flying techs and discretionary consumer stocks were the best performers in 2020. Big techs were the stars, Amazon ($3254) rose 71%, Apple ($133) gained 79% and Msoft ($222) 41%. Stay at homes, Netflix, Zoom & Pay Pal all posted solid gains.
Couriers did very well, Fed Ex & UPS rose as online shopping fuelled delivery services. Tesla was in a league of its own gaining an astounding 743% pushing up its mrkt cap to $669bn, followed by ETSY (e-commerce) up 296% in second place.

However it was not all Go, Go, Go as 40% of the SP was down with Cruises, Airlines & Oils posting 50% losses in some stocks. Boeing ($213) love it or hate it was the DJIs worst performer falling 34%.
Morning all & a happy New Year to all.

Sime Derby shares fell 0.18MYR today and trade at 4•99 MYR down from 5•20
in January. Prev post should have read SD were unavailable for comment.

The US said it will ban all palm oil shipments from Sime Derby & subsidiaries, one of the giants of Malaysian Palm Oil companies following an intensive month long investigation by the US Customs & Border Protection Office.
The investigation "reasonably indicates" abuses against workers that included physical and sexual violence,
threats, restriction of movement, intimidation and debt bondage.

Some of the problems appear to be systemic occurring on numerous plantations. The order was announced just 3 months after the Federal Govt slapped the same ban on FGV Holdings another Malaysian plantation giant.
The US imported $410m of cpo from Malaysia in fiscal 2020. This represents 33% of the total value shipped. Sime Derby was immediately available for comment.

Mrkts reopen Tuesday 5th, Jan

Its a wonderful world we live in, 44m (78%) of the UK population are locked down under tier 4 regs.
Many of the Supermarkets have new rules regarding shopping, take a calculator capable of doing quantum mechanics to be sure you infringe no area or queuing rules or face the covid police.

Asda has something called 'Quidini' (hence the calc) in operation and covid marshalls will guard entrances keeping the scavengers under control. Have a happy shop in the New Year.

A friend of mine knows of a Staff Nurse who works at Kings College Hospital in Camberwell, S.London. She says conditions are much worse than back in April and the hospital is full to bursting.

I'm told people could be wandering around unknowing they are infected with covid, mild symptoms etc.., thus spreading the virus among the pop. Stay safe folks!

Last day of the last week so no fireworks! Wk to date c.41,000 traded sells out pacing buys by 1•3:1 which has been the case for the last couple of weeks.

Mrkts will reopen on Mon, Jan 4th by then most will have decided to either stay put or say arrivederci. I'm in the stay put camp thinking the mrkt value of £25m has only one place to go and that's UP, if ever the mrkt recognises our main product has increased in value by 22% this year...., more in CIF Rotterdam terms. That's their job innit and must boost operating earnings.

Oh well, good riddance to 2020 a year that started so positively was kiboshed by the Wuhan flu which started out as a little local difficulty but morphed into a vicious global killer. Now in its 3rd/4th wave with new mutations to trouble scientists the future looks decidedly dicey. Stocks in the US have fared well and 3 effective vaccines produced in record time have been saving graces this year.

We have been in lockdown for c10 months to little effect as infections & deaths cont to soar. Some say its entirely due to people acting irresponsibly, not wearing masks and ignoring the distance rules. I don't know but from what I've seen everyone wears masks in shops but not in the street, so who & where are the upsurge of infections coming from?
Looks like were stuck in tier 4 through March, goodness knows what that's going to do to Mom & Pop businesses and pubs some of which have been given waivers on rates etc...not good i suspect. I hear from my local Landlady that come what may she intends to be the last lady standing.

REA have had a torrid time this year those who have stuck with the stock since Jan 3 have seen a 65% drop in their value and no sign of improvement. I hope the Co will report a profit for the year else it will be the 6th successive year of losses, (Mpe 6 successive years of gains). But for being able to run the business via debt REA would be long gone.
Enufffs enuff Mpe might be constrained by KLK to bid for REA which leaves Anglo among the London quoted. That looks a long shot so perhaps an Indonesian outfit could be interested but don't expect EV or Nav nos, those are out of the question as noone believes they are achievable.
At present 100 looks absolute tops, whether the Robbinows can be persuaded at that price looks moot, so where do we go from here? More of a lingering death or a bright future? Guess we know the answer to that!

Rea 167 (58)
Cpo $799 ($974)/ $1015
Cpko $755 ($1073)
KLPI 7337 (7733)

Oil $66
Gold $1524

Ftse 7542
All 4196
250 21,883

DJ 28,538
SP 3231
NS 8973
R2 1668

TK 23,657
HK 28,190
SH 3050
SK 2198

$1•325
€1•187
IDR 13,882

Covid-19
05:00

UK 2,432 888 (72,548)*
Indonesia 735,124 (21,944)•

* 50,023 cases
* 981 deaths
• 8002 cases
• 241 deaths

Energy stocks rose early Wed pulling the Dow up 160 at mid session. The sector the worst performer on the mrkt, off 37% this year is having a better Dec than most currently 5% ahead. A bullish signal on the charts called the 'golden cross' saw the 50DMA move above the 200DM and investors rushed to buy the oil majors expecting a turnaround for the black stuff in 2021. As the big 4 indexes hit record closes many continue to wonder why with 10% unemployed and c.1m filing new claims stocks head ever higher. The easy glib answer is economic nos look back, stock nos look forward.

Meanwhile Covid-19 continues on front pages of most papers, the new mutation variant found in the UK surfaced in Colorado. Its not known whether the Pfizer, Moderna vaccines will be effective on this new strain.
Yesterday 3900 deaths, the highest ever one day rate was reported in the US. Some hospitals in Cali are turning away Ambulances and in LA they are overflowing and above safe capacity.
The AZ vaccine which is much easier to transport has been approved for immediate roll out in the UK. US coronas fell back on the news, Moderna off $4 ($111) & Novavax $2 ($119) & Pfizer down 40c ($37).

Tesla cont its one way ticket rising $27 ($693) on 43m traded. Investors are getting excited about the possibility of the Co hitting 500,000 vehicles delivered in 2020 (368,000). Tesla will announce Q4 nos in early Jan. As ever with Tesla its the story the future that so excites fandoms of the stock.

On the big board Walt D ($181) topped the league, Apple ($134), Msoft ($222), Cisco ($44) & Intel ($49) among the laggards. Stay at homes Amazon fell $40 ($3286), Flix off $5 ($526) & Zoom down $2 at (%352).
On the NYSE vol was a below average 9•66bn, risers outpacing losers by 2•32:1 with 22 new 52s & 1 new low.

DJ +73 (30,410) R
SP +5 (3732)
NS +2 (12,845) R
R2 +11 (1118)

Nos: Oil $51•54. Vix 22•8.
Gold $1893. Copper $3•524.
Palm $974. $1•362. €1•108.
IDR 14,050. FF -42. DF -3.
Morning all.

Cpo cif Rotterdam $1015, Cpko $1330 and RDB Olein $975.

New Astra Z vaccine given the green light will be ready for roll out today. Being able to be stored at Fridge temperatures gives it a huge advantage over the Pfizer B variant.
Its not often we get the jump on US pharma but this time it sure looks like it!