Member Info for Joeman1

Whats with all the 7 trades? someone being funny?

Agreed BiB ..... make or break.... let's hope we wont be replacing the beer with alka seltzer and paracetamol by Christmas.
Btw.... I am hoping that our confidence gets a significant boost by months end..... so much news due.....
Gla

My strategy hoped that it would increase steadily from the JORC being as Lithium is part of the new energy boom, but as we now know the fledgling lithium market is complicated due to the need to match quality to application, fathom the story of the refining bottleneck and also understand the dynamics of this EV boom we are expecting....
This has lead to a drop in the lithium prices down towards the potentially non-viable region for many mines, therefore industry funding doesnt seem to be the given that we thought it was. .... I think these things more than anything have depressed the sp. Missing deadlines doesnt help but if they had hit every one I think we would still have been disappointed with the price.
But the overall strategy was for the long term..... the producing mine..... so unless my expectations are wrong for settling of the market, increase in the price of high quality spodumene (by the time we are producing) and general improvement of market sentiment over the next 12 months, this is still a good opportunity imo.
Sure I'm annoyed that I was wrong about the sp up to this point, but I'm not crying into my beer just yet.

One of the worst BiB? On communications maybe but they all take this extended slump in the lead up to production and all struggle to a greater or lesser extent with funding.
I've sat on the sidelines of a few miners and had my fingers burnt on a couple more who could be called almost Boris Johnson-esq in their definition of truth and lies...... Kodal are so far doing what they have said they would for the past 2 years albeit missing delivery targets.
There is a report that should be issued by now that will tell us all whether we have been following the yellow brick road or the garden path. They cant hold onto this past the agm in my opinion so we dont have long to wait.
I'm going to continue to be on balance positive until that report tells us otherwise.... but I'm not anticipating bad news.....

Sorry NED.
For all my talk, my holdings not enough to justify the trip. I'm a contractor and im snowed under.

Much appreciate the feedback when it comes though.

BiB, I can only speculate. I had a few thoughts on this subject.
1. The staged payments for this new concession warrant the confirmation that they are at least worth paying more money for (and not overpaying).
2. Might have been some agreement made with the seller that this concession would be investigated in short order (i.e. maybe MLL lost this concession by proposing to look at this in a couple of years and the seller didnt like this as a delay)
3. The crew carrying out the drilling are Malian and it therefore looks good in the local community to maintain their status as a local employer while their applications are being reviewed.

You can obviously add to these the more negative suggestions from some people that the current resource isnt sufficient for a good economic basis, or that they dont support the application for mining permit or that the feasibility study wont support enough of the resource getting upgraded or even cast doubt on it achieving reserve status...... but I dont rate these risks as high to be honest.

GLA

Podcast was released today, yes.
At least he is still using 2019 as the year he wants to submit the permit application. everything else is typically vague but near term (when considered against the end of the year permit application) could be anything up to November.... but I cant help thinking there will be news flow leading up to the agm.

That's not a guarantee its an educated guess.

Jester,
The current mix of energy in the UK (almost no coal power remaining, nuclear, gas, renewables) means that new EVs reach Carbon Equivalent with a typical ICE after only a few years.... so yes, more intensive to produce at the moment (mostly the battery) but makes environmental sense overall....
For a country like Slovenia, so much coal, oil and gas ..... I think the carbon balance takes far far longer ... and of course if you are reading a report supporting the Oil and Gas industry or the ICE industry, their analysis uses this set of information to support their arguments. They also assume the worst case supply chain basis for battery metals .... something that will change over the next decade as refining capacity is developed closer to the source and new technologies take the damaging impact out if this area (have you heard about Samsungs new Graphene battery they are bringing out in 2 years time? Could lead to environmentally friendly EV batteries in the next 10 years).
Keep an open mind...... its amazing the things they are developing these days.....

So Two-shields destroyed a whole load of investor capital without progressing their asset one iota .... I seem to remember someone on this chatboard maybe 18 months ago trying to persuade people to invest there instead of Kodal as it was a much better proposition.... hmmmm.
Dont believe anything grown ups say ..... that's what I keep telling my kids.

Alita is a relevant and important development, particularly with Mr Z's input. Not from a "hit the Panic button" or run for the hills, but because:
1. Surely there is an opportunity for KOD to learn from mistakes made previously
2. It gives us the opportunity to directly ask Mr Z at the agm, why our development is different from Alita.

Both are positive things in a supply chain that is in its infancy (in terms of scale and quality).

Hi Alan,
if only we knew what ship the sample was to be on..... i can vouch for the positive impact on my personal sentiment that I have gained from following a couple of FPSOs from their Fabrication Yards to final location.....
Good call on the idea of tracking the sample..... If anyone from Kodal is reading this then here is your opportunity to give us something to ruminate on in the coming weeks...... a set of pixels traversing a sea of blue with a shipping destination and expected TOA to boot......

could be heaven

Sorry Paolo, I find the market analysis that shows the refining capacity as being the biggest reason for the glut in ore far more believable.
The battery gigafactories built and being built, the uptake in EV s, battery storage are tangible figures for demand..... And the reasons why they have yet to impact spodumene demand and thus help our commodity prices need to be interrogated.
Interrogation for me reveals that ore refining is difficult, expensive and currently limited to a few Chinese companies that have struggled to get their plants to achieve nameplate capacities or anywhere near this..... It is improving all the time though...... Which is why most think 2020 onwards will see a better developed supply chain and a recovery in prices for ore....
Imo of course

Wonder if there is a podcast interview already done that we can watch at our leisure over the bank holiday weekend.....

You are right mate.... it is all an estimate, but you can almost guarantee there will be a MINIMUM of 11billion shares, so It affects the bottom line of any calculation..... btw I used similar numbers to you give or take... I was just interested that is all.

I know GFD, im only being a spreadsheet warrior, but at the time of calculating I was only using 60million investment and assuming 10 years mine life with only OPEX. You stick a 100million investment in at year 3 it has an impact on value..... but my guess is the 4p would become 3p (or a factor of this depending on dilution, Cost to mine, price of lithium, cost of credit etc).
I like to keep playing with the numbers.... with the lack of gold coins to count I have to entertain myself somehow.....

ARahim, can I ask you out of interest, did your 4p calculation at production include 20% dilution from here as Mali government come on board? say minimum 11billion shares in issue?
I can guess what some of the other factors you might have used as I managed to calculate a similar number (with some quite specific assumptions of course) but that will have changed drastically now that we know we need the flotation circuit to get us past the first 2 to 3 years production.

btw, im not making a 4p prediction guys..... its just one of many possibilities..... as is 0.4p or 0.04p ........

Only 36 million sold.... dont have a coronary yet guys....
Although maybe this dunt will be enough to shame BA into commenting on the late ESIA........ It is having an affect on investor confidence....

You're ok Roo.... I don't think you have used the term here before...
I was referring to the fact that funding gets discussed at least weekly albeit with differing opinions, so its not really an elephant in the room. It was a glib comment because you quite often talk about funding (and quite rightly too.... the mine wont be developed on a air of goodwill alone).

In my opinion THIS RNS is nothing but good news..... only problem is we are all waiting with baited breath for the ESIA, which needs to come soon. I like the podcasts too SorB but i'd prefer him to do one after the ESIA comes out.

GFD, I think you have to accept that Roo has this concern about funding (not sure you can call it an elephant Roo since you mention it in so many of your posts.... definition is that its a big issue that nobody ever talks about).

This RNS must reduce the scale of the funding concern though.... surely.... If the £70million CAPEX requirement is now FAR more likely than the £200million flotation circuit option and the achievable concentration is 6%, then this project should on paper be attractive even with a $600-700 spod price. .... am I missing something?

They still need to get their fingers out on delivering their other near terms goals though..... a single swallow does not a summer make.....

Thats it Batfink.... Kodal paid the charges to carry out the share issue, and as the RNS says they are going to try and claim a proportion of those costs back from the SVS liquitators.
The previous RNS identified that they would not start the additional drilling if these shares where not liquid, so in my opinion they should sit on their own shares until they deliver on the progress suggested for August/September. They can then decide to sell them at a (hopefully) higher price.... makes sense to me.
Wouldn't make sense to sell them now for the sake of it.