Member Info for Joeman1

You are right Daz, based upon the deliverables it does look tight (depending how far along the various items are....

One point on the bullk sample though, I did a fag packet calc on what the bulk sample means in terms of processing time a while ago.... and from memory it was only a few hours at full plant rate..... not suggesting that they will treat it that way but it might be a single run over a single shift...

It was just a bit of fun and dated back from the time when we were having discussions on what the value of the ore was once refined..... i.e. could we get paid for it .....lol

We could ask Santa for the permit application to be delivered by Rudolph.... just a suggestion

To be fair Daz, if you are right and BA misses the permit submission this year, it will be the biggest miss to date. He has been claiming EOY for a while now. Lets hope it means he intends to meet this one.

Its like the JORC, once they were within 6 months of the final september deadline they set, they did keep to it, even although all the 3rd party work leading up to it was late.

You have to have some hope in life, even although they have slipped on just about every other deadline.

The presentation is on today I believe.... final slot (does that make us the headline act?). Dont suppose anyone is going to the event and might be able to feedback what is said wrt timescales now?
To be honest, it is depressing as a shareholder to think that we are in a situation where non-invested people might be getting more infomation than we are about OUR project. Unsatisfactory to say the least.

Yes BiB, I agree with all your points....

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rogeratkins_lithium-electricvehicles-batteries-activity-6602320386795323392-PUEr

And another interview with Joe Lowry.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-19/tesla-set-to-bulk-up-the-world-s-largest-lithium-ion-battery

Good to see that the Hornsdale site in Australia has been an outright success. Tesla promised and delivered the capacity in a very tight timeframe, which was a pat on the back for them, however the site is now expanding which is a massive boost for the application of the technology. Some massive sites.... 5 or 6 times the size of Hornsdale planned on the back of this success.....
Will all put pressure on the supply chain in the coming few years....
TESLA and Volkwagen cars...... demand expects to exceed all battery grade lithium production .... now we have plans for battery storage sites with outputs from 1/4, to 1/2, to 1 GigaWatt !!!!
Can this market go anywhere else but up?

https://youtu.be/ki9x0xHMfkA

Even the Japanese are coming round to batteries and ditching the fuel cell idea.... well Honda at least.
Just need the bad news not to be true.....

I did say dung.... not stones.... fitting for an allotment greenhouse.... that's more my level.. anyway, the point was simple.
We are right at the time we were expecting news on a lot of fronts.... EISA, bulk sample results and of course the FS..... if it comes in the next week then the fat lady is still in her dressing room powdering her nose.... if it is delayed for a month or more, then NOBODY here is happy. If it is delayed for 3 to 6 months with no adequate explanation then something is rotten in the state of Denmark. .... and I will be surprised if future share issues go well if this news doesnt arrive, as it took an age to shift the last lot ....
I'm kind of agreeing with you there BiB.... just pointing out that the presentation material might be wrong..... it has been before.... like the last time... remember? 6month old information on the slides instead of current info?

Fat lady isnt singing yet BiB.... not time for slinging the dung around just yet. I think everyone is cheesed with this latest twist....
if it turns out not to be incorrectly published info from the event, then there will not be a single shareholder that isnt angry with BA.
Typo's happen though... my first graduate job was for an industrial water treatment company..... but their description in the GET500 suggested they were "the most widely recognised convenience food franchise in the world"..... there were a few clowns... but no Ronalds.
Anyone emailed Bernard yet?

Dr Chris Ryan did a blog a while ago that looked at numbers being used by peers and there were higher numbers up to 800 still being used despite the bad market sentiment .... 800 was the number used by BA when the JORC was announced and related to a price already 300 off the peak. Downstream demand is picking up like a freight train so I have no problem picking this number for 2023..... also... keeps coming up.... but quality is king..... very low levels of impurities in the lab tests so a margin with be paid.... same as any commodity.
The cost of mining was again the post JORC number from BA. (Btw The good Dr Ryan has also produced a table on costs of mining of peers and 400 seems a conservative middle) He has said savings are being made but nothing firm on that..... but the key thing is margin..... I've gone for 200/te initially rising to 400/te as the demand ticks up
.... anyone not believing in the bulls on lithium demand should pick a different commodity to invest in, because at today's prices the profits will be small.

Sorry Daz, that was almost worthy of a Bridgen award. I agree with the prevailing consensus that we have (at the moment) limited sources for finance and the full plant is expensive, so it is better to get into production via the lower CAPEX route, but the business case will need to include financing of the full plant.
We will see from the FS, but the first three years appear to pay for themselves, but dont provide a good enough business case on their own.

I believe its dollars.. .its the value BA used last (70 that is) and since the margins are quoted in dollars it should be consistent.
I will double check. .....
....or should I just wait for the FS to be released lol.

That is true Mr Cautious, we are waiting for a lot of news to drop and I am only sharing the analysis I have done myself, based upon number mostly given out by BA over the months and therefore not subject to the same rigor as the numbers i hope the FS will have.

You have to make your own assessment of the project though, surely.... otherwise what would you use to justify your investment in a junior miner? A tip from a bloke down the pub?

I dont have the spreadsheet at work, but from memory the basis I used was:
Initial CAPEX - £70 million
Flotation CAPEX - £100million end of year 3.
Production rate - (yr 1-3) 1.2Mtpa
Production rate - (yr 4-9) 1.5Mtpa
Life of Mine - 9 Years
Margin - (yr 1-3) 200/te 6%spod
Margin - (yr4-9) 400/te 6%spod
Discounting Rate - 10% (fairly conservative)

If I can qualify some of my numbers - the early margin is my understanding of current prices and based upon a cost of mining of 400/te ..... Stab at longer term commodity price (average) at 800/te
9 years LOM - from BA in a recent interview
Inital Cost - (from BA)
Follow on Cost - educated guess from looking at a variety of other examples.

Im sure any of you could poke holes in this but 1. More accurate numbers should be in the FS and 2. In balance I am happy with the assessment.

I know you are sceptical BiB, but we are expecting the following,

ESIA,
Results of Sample Trial (from downstream within our anticipated supply chain)
FS,
Permit Application.

What we have that others may not have had (and maybe explains the lack of share price movement on their FS), is we are already heavily in the supply chain with SC owning 27% and therefore likely to be in a position to arrange contracts to sell our lithium based upon this news. And with this comes the ability to arrange finance (conventional, forward selling ...whatever routes....they all become easier).

If the FS shows a LOM of 8-10 years with our currently investigated areas, with the flotation circuit added after 2 to 3 years, I actually think that this makes your fear of a Chinese smash and grab less likely. Ive run some numbers based upon what we have been told so far in terms of expected plant costs and cost to mine and I get an NPV of just north of 120million for the project (10% discounted rate). We wont get 1p share price on that, but we will all make a profit.

If im close enough to the mark, (and there are a lot of variable to be confirmed in the FS), the additional value remains in expanding the existing areas (imo a good bet for some expansion of value) and investigation of the remaining 7 -10 areas (still highly speculative).
imo there is too little proven value yet to make it worthwhile for SC to make a hostile bid to buy us out.... the additional value might be dust......
all in my speculative and unprofessional opinion. GLA

it took me a minute to remember who bgs were.....

so 17th November then, unless there is a problem communicated, Kodal could issue an RNS ... even if paper certificate not issued.

To be honest, I think there should be enough reasons mid november to release RNS's it is a no brainer.....we should be kept abreast

Thought it worthwhile laying out the timeline so far on the ESIA
2nd August - original submission
18th September - Review of original submission with government officials
Addendum to original submission prepared to answer questions raised by government officials
3rd October - Addendum submitted
17th November - expected latest response date (hopefully application approved).

I dont think Mali Lithium had any problems with their addendum and the same consultant has been used (as far as I understand).

For me the thing wrong is the commodity price..... it's like swimming against a spring tide.... it was the same for anyone in oil and gas in 2015/2016. Good thing for us that sentiment is changing just as we start to look for project funding.

I know the missed targets are a Kodal problem, but I'd bet money that during the peak lithium prices, the market would have been forgiving of those.....
The biggest killer for the current share price is lithium price..... in my opinion.

The following is lifted from a Joe Lowry Tweet.

"For those of you obsessing about a “slowing” #lithium market. Japan imports of carbonate & hydroxide through September are at a 60K MT full year rate vs 43K MT full year 2018. YTD 2019: 60% of imports are hydroxide."

Although SC are our strategic investors and BA has stated they have indicated they support us through to production, he has also specifically stated that funding is not in the bag yet.... as well as alluding to some of that eventually coming from conventional sources.... so SC are not necessarily our everything.

On whether SC will screw us over..... it's a possibility..... but our lithium is only one of many they will need to manage in the supply chain over the coming years so unless they want to get into the mining business with all of them I think their game is being played as it is now.
Owning 30% blocks others from making hostile plays, gets them representation on the board, gives them a double whammy if they agree to some of the financing (I.e. you are right that financing will be the big rerate before production) because their share capital will accrue in value. They will likely negotiate preferential rates for the spod and if they don't, they benefit from every extra penny their customers pay.

Also, to my mind, we are now locked n loaded.... there is little we can change between now and Christmas.... and by then we will know everything imo.... for better or worse we will know.