Member Info for Jim800

MV showing as “unavailable for online trading” with Hargreaves Lansdown!

Big demand this morning? Perhaps as Daily Mail readers take a break from their normal routine of racism and blaming immigrants for everything?

You obviously missed the first paragraph! The new contracts are new E&D contracts in Iraq, mostly awarded to Chinese companies in May 24 - (in your link).

Nothing at all on existing contracts in KRG.

So thanks, but irrelevant.

depends what you read. iraq have also declared all krg oil contracts as illegal so there may not even be a contract with genel / iraq.

still, thanks for your half ****d opinion - some people shouldn’t be allowed to post.

Not really, Genel contracts are with KRG, not Iraq central.

Ok GG as you’ve asked a sensible question I’ll answer.

Why do I hold?

- DEC have large gas reserves (I know you don’t believe that but the rest of the world does).

- HH futures for next year range between 2.8 and 3.9 compared with 2.1 ish now.

- this year’s reduced profit based on v low gas prices, likely to be better next year and improving.

- I’m down on capital but about equal on total returns - dividend bearable at about 5% ish on my holding with prospect of share price growth over next few years.

- the change of strategy from income share to growth (once prices improve ) should have been better advertised but we are where we are.

- so some of us will hold uncomfortably (no-one likes Red holdings) but thanks for your advice - that we choose to ignore.

- you might be right you may be wrong - doubt we’ll know for years.

Thanks for your concern.

I haven't always agreed with AoC but he's on the money here "Uncomfortable hold" feels about right.

DEC recognise the complication of valuing assets, the IFRS rules on financial instruments and the difficulty of comparing like with like in the midst of acquisitions and re-financing so they suggest some non-accounting metrics "better suited to O&G companies."

From full half year report (Page 42)

Alternative Performance Measures

(Amounts in thousands, except per share and per unit data)

We use APMs to improve the comparability of information between reporting periods and to more accurately evaluate cash flows, either by adjusting for

uncontrollable or transactional factors that are not comparable period-over-period, or by aggregating measures, to aid the users of this Interim Report in

understanding the activity taking place across the Group. APMs are used by the Directors for planning and reporting and should not be considered an

IFRS replacement. The measures are also used in discussions with the investment analyst community and credit rating agencies.

However, even with these bespoke metrics:

Adjusted EBITDA - about 20% down on 6 months to Jun 23 - ie worse

Debt up - ie worse

Pro forma adjusted TTM EBITDA down - ie worse

Leverage up - ie worse

Adjusted EBITDA margin up - ie worse

Free cash flow up on Jun 23 but down on Dec 23 - ie worse

Operating costs per Mcfe better than Dec 23 but worse than Jun 23

Those acquisitions not showing as accretive in DEC's chosen metrics just yet.

Terry - I think it is very much a jam tomorrow strategy. Guess there’s a difference of opinion over whether it will work.

If, year after year, Rusty keeps borrowing more (or issuing more shares) to fund acquisitions the assets and debt will both grow monumentally.

Free cash should continue to cover debt repayments and dividends (and even do a few share BBs) but debt will continued to grow.

At some point, and DEC never say when this will be, they’ve got to stop or pause acquisitions and use profits to significantly reward shareholders, over pay debts and look to supporting and increasing share price.

Make it soon please!

Malcy being keen is a big negative!

He’s been keen on any company that gives him a free lunch for a decade.

Reality is somewhere between Malcy and GG.

Results are officially “outstanding” by the time you get to CEO’s comments.

Andy,

Debt can be up or down depending on what the comparison point is. They've paid off 108Mn but of course have borrowed more for acquisitions and refinanced other elements of old debt. So year on year it's gone up but then assets under management have as well. DEC never pause long enough in a stable position to get simple year on year comparative figures.

The RNS version is a little too simplistic to determine EBITA figure and mixes gross / net figures - the presentation below has more detail.

The financial instruments figure is always weird as accounting rules confuse the actual profit / loss with a potential profit / loss - lots of historical posts on here about that.

More worrying for me is the continued hinting that more acquisitions are still in train but little detail on how we'll pay for them - dilution vs yet more debt. Time to stand still awhile I'd say. A couple of years of directly comparative accounts would show clearly whether the acquire at all costs plan is working or not.

Easier to read presentation of results.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_09067e97b36f9a5b3df4dfa81a03b9f6/dgoc/db/581/5998/pdf/Diversified+Energy+Earnings+Presentation+June+2024.pdf

Dazzle, yet again a few corrections needed for your post!

- the Uncrossing Trade is not a buy! That’s NOT. As you’ve been told loads of times it is a matched auction with an equal volume of buys / sells.

- so your hours of charting tell us that if results are good share price will go up and if they’re worse than expectations share price will go down - don’t think we could have worked that out without your help so thanks very much!

- you’re not a genius! On 18 July you actually said “There is two gaps to fill in the New York Stock Exchange charts around the fifth and 10th of July but this could be a blip in the bigger ocean. Could see a fat finger take these two out maybe a dragonfly emoji candle pattern in the near future.” Not a clear prediction of a share price slide as you claim but a general comment on 2 gaps.

Still, as long as your mum is proud of you keep posting drivel.

The CEO and BoD are responsible for:

- years of abysmal customer service from some 3rd world sweatshop.

- continued inability to offer competitive deals on mobiles or broadband.

- hordes of existing customers (me included) who are ditching vodaphone for cheaper companies with better customer service.

Until they can retain customers they’re doomed.

They’ve had the money to diversify and it’s been a stated priority for years now.

They just keep saying they can’t find anything suitable at the correct price.

Other O&G companies are acquiring assets ok.

Perhaps undervalued because they can only sell oil locally at a fraction of its “real” value.

I can see KRG rushing to open the pipeline and double local costs immediately - NOT.

Add in a likely arbitration award against a country who can’t / won’t pay and a BoD that continues to be unable to diversify (after having it as a priority for several years) and you can see it should be worth much more 😀.

No rises here til pipeline opens.

Revolut have already emailed card holders (including me) to tell us the banking license news.

Seems they’re changing existing accounts into “bank accounts” - they’re damn efficient.

Grow exits 3 holdings at or above their own valuations whilst Share Price in the mid 380s and share price slides by 50p in less than 2 weeks!

Revolut get UK banking license so much more opportunity for profit than previously and share price continues to fall.

Why the negative sentiment? NAV certainly not getting worse.

Is it only me thinking of a top up at these prices?

Back down below 8% again.

Don’t think you’ll be seeing any dividend rises in next few years - DEC were pretty clear they were setting consistency over the next 3 years when it was cut. BBs seem less likely than more acquisitions.

Debt will reduce til next acquisition so only HH rises, decent hedging and interest rate cuts to push SP - and 2 of those are outwith DEC control.

Terry - that might explain Blackrock’s strategy and position, it still doesn’t tell us why the shorters think the price will drop from here.

I don’t think it’s lack of confidence in future of gas as someone hinted recently.

I think capping costs and esg concerns have been dealt with.

HH future prices seem to set to rise and demand for power for cloud servers, heating and air con in the states seems to be fixed or rising.

To my mind that only leaves concerns over: reserves, debt and interest or decline rates.