Member Info for Jim800

I’ve never filtered anyone here before but having now filtered GG and Rrb the board becomes much easier to read.

Not because I don’t take an interest in their views but the same view repeated ad nauseam becomes a bit repetitive.

Hopefully if everyone blocks them they’ll find something more productive to do with their time.

See a therapist perhaps.

Then I expect you’ll continue to have a miserable life. Congratulations.

that report says the median cost is $20k , the rest of the average cost is tree planting and surface remediation. so $20k is what companies charge to do it you chimp. i’m saying dec don’t have to make a profit plugging their own wells and they’re mostly close together.

looks like you’re the moron - though thanks for proving my point. get back to being a miserable ****.

I’m not defending the DEC business model I think they’ve done loads wrong - I’ve even been banned by Oak Bloke for pointing that out to him.

However Rrb is posting factually incorrect opinions and mis representing them as facts - worth pointing out.

No one here knows the exact reasons for the share price collapse. In my view (may not be facts) it’s more to do with gas price, debt levels, interest rates payable, lack of trust in what Rusty says and difficult to compare / comprehend accounts due to acquisitions and derivatives. I don’t think ARO costs are a huge factor at present.

Dividend reduction due to lower gas prices, less FCF and a compulsive desire to expand (perhaps because assets appeared cheap).

I’m not sitting on a massive loss - average is about 86p old money but I’ve had 8 years of dividends and made a bit trading the 100-120 range years ago.

As per previous reply to you - if gas prices rise (and future hedges are all above 3) and DEC stabilise and pay down debt then we have an asset that is in demand for decades to come.

I might be wrong but I’m happy with life and don’t need to get my enjoyment from other peoples misery as you seem to.

notrex,

i could keep a straight face because i was engaged in the serious business of facts! i was re-reading the aro / esg sections of 2023 report, where i noted:

aro costs are factored into dec accounts with npv but with an inflation figure. for interest they factor in $5mn ish for the next 12 months, $20 mn ish for the following 4 years and then $1770 mn ish for the remaining time.

however, nowhere does it say how much an in house well costs to plug - the figures 0f $20-23k appear to come from their costs to third parties (but lvl are making a profit on this ) and understandably dec don't want to advertise how much they can actually do it for. so all rrb's sums are just a wild ****d guess. dec also hint that capping wells that are collocated is much cheaper (as only costs are manpower/transport and cement) - makes sense to me. they also say that some wells are estimated to run on til 2095! so plenty of time, hopefully reducing costs, still exceeding targets and no need for tying up $25 mn every year.

Rrb - so just for clarity you're saying that when DEC were buying "crap" Appalachian wells no-one noticed the strategy was poor (including all institutional Investors, State regulatory bodies, providers of various credit facilities etc etc. Not even you noticed back then and you're an energy professional!!!!

But now he's moved onto buying better wells with more production in a better location everyone has suddenly woken up and realised it's a crap strategy?

Interesting theory!

GG - try and stay consistent in your conspiracy theories. You alleged that the increased buybacks was just a scam arranged with recipients of the new shares to ensure they could sell them back to DEC.

Now you're saying that after 3 or 4 days of this carefully arranged scam they ran out of money??? Don't you think DEC and new recipients of shares might have seen that coming?

Nice to see you've gone full circle on the theories and are now back at Ch 11 bankruptcy.

Your life must be a void to force you into such a miserable existence posting repeatedly and enjoying other peoples' poor decisions - do you enjoy car crashes and house fires as much? Permanent seat outside A&E for gloating perhaps?

Clued - I'm certainly not a de-ramper (still an uncomfortable hold) but a look at how Zachs (or more likely their AI Bots) do their forecasting shows it to be over simplistic.

Basing a recommendation on changes to earnings estimates ignores a whole load of sector specific issues (gas prices, O&G sentiment within trusts / trackers and ESG concerns (leaks / ARO costs etc) and the more generic ones such as debt / leverage levels, interest rates, world events etc etc.

The Key Banc one at least looks as though it has had some human thought applied.

As per all other opinions - time will tell.

Simms,

Everyone has been telling you for years that your “it’ll be alright tomorrow” is utter boll@x.

EQT have never been able to forecast cashflow accurately or report it honestly.

Doubt most other people are surprised.

Rrb - once again you confuse opinion with fact! If you read DEC’s half yearly report they DO include a factor for inflation costs whilst doing the ARO NPV calculations. They also talk about the collaborative approach they have to well retirement where they agree numbers with the state then exceed them. Given that the state, federal govt, industry bodies, people underwriting their debt etc etc don’t require a sinking fund - why would they????

$25 million put aside just to shut you up might be worth it but they won’t do it.

GG - interesting article on conspiracy theorists on radio 5 live this morning. Accepted view is that they’re people who can’t accept the complexities of the modern world.

Stop loss on girlfriend’s SIPP ensured a profit on her DEC shares.

No loss on mine until I need to sell 😀

Tell us once it’s advice - multiple times a day it’s an obsession. Surely you must have other things you could spend your time on?

Rrb - if you want a factual answer to your question try reading the March 24 RNS for end of year results and updated capital allocation strategy.

If you want a load of “opinions” read your own posts, if you want the latest conspiracy theory then GG will oblige.

Dave,

I think you want Mystic Meg not an anonymous forum like this.

I think it will definitely go up or down or stay the same - hope that helps.

Waiting on new BB connection so checked back - GG prior to Sep 23 your DEC posts were just about dividend dates and W8 Ben forms. In Sep 23 you started your first conspiracy that DEC were setting themselves up for Ch 11 bankruptcy (SP was about £18 then so not the £20 you keep banging on about).

More than a year has passed and no chapter 11!

After that your conspiracy theories veer between they haven’t actually got any gas, everything is bought at spot and sold at spot to meet contracts, Tanos insider dealing, false accounting, lying about reserves, lying about production and lying about decline rates. Lots of requests for evidence from other posters but none ever delivered (apart from a chat with the in-laws about a friend of a friend who sold a field in Texas once).

I’m sure aspects of all of these could have been explained more clearly or handled better but afraid all the conspiracies appear very much in your imagination. But thanks for trying to save us all anyway!

GG - I can’t remember, you haven’t told us for over an hour.

Lots of share prices fall for all sorts of reasons that don’t involve conspiracy theories. Sometimes, they’re just companies that aren’t well run or have a poor strategy that the market doesn’t like.

Debt, interest rates and world events all play a role as well.

GG GG GG - you didn’t explain it to everyone, you explained it to the very small minority who haven’t filtered you.

You should write a book on conspiracy theories. You haven’t mentioned DEC not producing enough gas to fill their hedges for a while, might be worth restarting that one.

You and Rrb should be able to set up a whole parallel universe between the two of you.

US pre market @ £8.74 just about matching UK price of £8.72 as I type.

Not sure who is leading and who is following - obviously UK leading yesterday as US wasn’t playing. Ugly indeed but not sure it’s US dragging UK down.

Unfortunately that helpful advice doesn't work when sentiment keeps being poor.

If any chartists out there could predict some good sentiment that would be helpful - though in advance rather than with hindsight (as so often seems to be the way with Tech Analysis) please.

No matter what the declared instructions are to PH - You can guarantee that DEC are pulling the strings over magnitude and timing of buys. It's their money after all!

Can only see 4 months in the next 2 years where HH futures start with a 2 (and they're 2.7 / 2.9 / 2.8 /2.5).

The rest of them start with 3s or 4s.

Now I realise hedging might limit the upside potential but it will generate more income than the last few months - and unhedged production will benefit more fully.

Just have to keep the plates spinning til it goes above 3 in Dec 24 then debt paydown can increase (assuming Rusty can avoid buying any more wells).

They'll be able to continue to cap more than the mandated number of wells to keep Rrb happy - though obviously not hiding 25 Million down the back of the sofa as that would be stupid!

.