Member Info for Jim800

What got the share price to £1.40 previously (£28 since share consolidation)?

DEC would say all their acquisitions have been accretive so although debt has increased so has output and reserves.

Cashflow still supporting strategy and set to improve if HH futures stay as they are or continue to rise.

Interest rates only going one way.

Only real negative is sentiment - my view is still that we need a period of consolidation to reduce debt and leverage to “more acceptable” levels and allow direct comparisons between quarters / halves / years.

I’m not saying it will get to old levels but looks like all the current negatives look set to improve.

Buys not nuts 😀😀

Parrot,

There are a mix of opinions, facts and nonsense on here.

If posting facts, most contributors will add a link or quote a reference. Eg Directors nuts, results, buybacks etc.

Most people posting opinions will say as much and try to explain how they extrapolate a fact to form an opinion. Eg HH futures up so should be good for SP.

Then there’s the nonsense with no logic behind it, conspiracy theories etc etc. Eg DEC going bust, no gas left….. Personally I filter these and just look at the negatives supported by some evidence (and there are some - debt levels, saying one thing and going another, promising substantial buybacks and delivering sporadic ones).

Notrex, are you using some sort of GG volatility index to predict DEC share price movements?

You might have something there 😀

Dave,

Company website always the best place to look!

$1.16 per annum split into 4 quarterly payments.

This then needs to be converted into sterling via a variable exchange rate.

% yield is a function of share price which obviously varies. So what you work out today will likely be a little different tomorrow and more different in a week!

Just plan on 29 cents / quarter for next few years.

Some simple maths on the short reduction from 0.86% to 0.79% means (I assume) that they have to purchase 0.07% of shares in circulation.

Given last RNS on voting rights was around 49m shares, that means a purchase of some 34,300 shares. If we take an average of yesterday’s price that is some £280,000 - expensive day (and that’s without paying for the loan of shares and covering dividend).

Given HH futures it doesn’t look like share repurchase is going to get cheaper than last few days anytime soon - especially if BBs continue.

Only blot on the day is DEC’s inability to get the sums correct on Directors’ purchase RNSs. Hope the hedge staff are better at maths (or math in the US).

Everyone needs to watch Dumb Money on Prime to renew enthusiasm and hatred of shorters.

Can also work out which characters are replicated on here!

Nice summary.

Typical ME politics: I don’t mind being screwed over as long as the people I dislike are screwed over more!

Red - are you talking about the ones notified on 20 Sep or have you got newer data?

As one only dropped to a sub .5 holding at 0.4 it’s a smaller drop than you intimate. But welcome no r the less.

7500 shares for Rusty alone is twice the standard buy back amount from a few months ago.

Any Director”s buy is a good sign - 4 might be organised but they’re still putting their post tax cash in the company. I like it.

Top research Tony - use a presentation that’s nearly 3 years old based on reports and a well database that are 2 years older than that!

If you’re going to base your investments on 5 year old research you may miss a few opportunities. 😀

And up to $12.03 in the US after hours - I make that over £9!

Whoop whoop

£193K buy at 0946 - short buying back or just someone with confidence in the current strategy? ?

Asp - afraid you can’t win an argument with an irrational person using logic and facts.

Accept that you tried in a polite and rational manner (as many of us have over the last few months) but realise it’s an impossible task - then hit filter for a GG free life.

A fat American bloke with no shirt on analysing DEC accounts in his bedroom????

Wonder whether that is GG or RRb1 - both filtered so not sure which one he agrees with the most.

Red,

Think we've all been asking ourselves the same for months now - have the shorters seen something we have missed?

A bot analysis of the financials without understanding the nuances might be some of it (but as all shorts (above or below 0.5%) are above 10% I assume its either more than that or just group behaviour)).

The hedging undoubtedly leads to some missed opportunity profits and the handling of these in accounts as losses makes the numbers look bad for some periods - however it is a requirement of the loans and on balance provides some certainty when prices fluctuate.

Forward gas futures prices are clearly visible for all to see and mostly start with a 3 for next few years so I doubt it's that.

Guess whatever news drives the next step change in share price will be a bit more evidence.

BlackSteel - concur with Terry, it's a cash flow thing. DEC are very controlled with cashflow and keep minimal cash in the current account (as it's better used on debt repayment or reducing RCF). Guess between XD and dividend payment date end of Sep there's a lot of saving up to pay the dividend.

Terry - a little unfair to criticise the timings of BBs (volume and regularity yes but not timing). No-one is doing BBs with hindsight and it's easy to look back and be critical - I seem to recall you were asking for bigger buybacks when SP was in the 1300/1500s - good they weren't big buys at that price!

Think you just agree the strategy - that it will reduce dilution and save on dividend payments and might (stress might - logic says it should but I've never seen any proof) support Share price then do it. Waiting about for a share price bottom means you'll never start.

However, most of these could be resolved by Iraq / KRG ceasing their petty internal quarrels and focussing on doing the best for their populations! But Middle East politics doesn’t seem to work like that, religious, tribal, family, geographical loyalties and status all far more important.

More concerning is a board that is blind to opportunities elsewhere.

Worya,

Conference was 18-21 Aug.

Shame we only got those slides not a video of the breakout and Q&A!

How many reasons do you need?

Pipeline for sales to international market closed so cheap local sales only.

KRG owe them loads of money with no sign of paying..

A fortune spent on gas fields now in court of arbitration - with a party who can’t pay whatever the verdict.

A board that can’t find a way to diversify away from a region that can’t / won’t honour contracts.

Contracts with KRG declared illegal / invalid by Iraq.

Need any more????