Member Info for Jim800

Hope no-one took your advice JXP!

Link below (copied from GKp board) has a good summary of the situation since early 2023.

Just to reiterate to the blindly optimistic, Iraq have no interest in a fair deal that makes KRG and IOCs better off. They’d rather everyone (including themselves) was worse off than do KRG a favour.

News flash: ME politicians don’t always mean what they say. It’ll get done but it won’t be quick.

https://x.com/NatlContext/status/1908513372158443987

If they underperformed in H1 of 2023 “as a consequence of this transition” then they started before Sep 23.

Try reading and then working out what the words mean!

Have been overdue for good news for more than 3 years 😀

Spag, From the 2022 Annual Report, issued early 2023.

Looks and sounds a bit like a pivot - but could be a quacking duck I suppose.

In response to changing market conditions in early 2022, the Company updated its business plan to: focus its portfolio of active projects on the strategically most important; reduce its project development liabilities; and engage project developers and owner-operators in actively leading development activities (the "Focus Plan")

if i was going to short a stock, this one hasn’t got much down to go so i wouldn’t be doing it here! risk / reward is probably more to the upside from here.

my post wasn’t negative it was just correcting simms’ mindless optimism which he has been spouting for years (and continually been wrong).

i’ve got my original investment (based on the bod’s lies) which is down about 80% - my fault i know but i don’t want other posters believing his nonsense.

people can be invested and ****@d off at the bod at the same time - in fact most posters here are.

Simms, you seem to have missed a couple of “ifs” from your post. Let me help you:

If NF goes live this quarter - you have promised other quarters 😀.

If it works satisfactorily!

If they get out of Ch 11!

If they can pay for a 25% stake!

They been pivoting for 2 years now - at some point they have to stop pivoting and go in a straight line.

Lack of news is not good news, it’s a lack of good news!

Still, admire your optimism.

Meanwhile, back in the real world.

https://thenationalcontext.com/why-international-oil-companies-are-in-no-rush-to-resume-krg-oil-exports/

So how much do they owe you for your patience since …… yesterday?

ADHD?

US after market price up 5% to $13.62 - admittedly on small volumes and HH still over 4.1.

Although to be fair, Victoria D was being a prat. If you’re going to ask guests questions then let them answer. Interrupting all the time isn’t an interview it’s just a host trying (but failing) to look clever.

BBC hosts never seem to ask questions to elucidate answers, they just want to score points.

Give Nick Mason the job!

Dogface - please join the longtermers here and just filter him. Responding just encourages him to hold his winkle with one hand whilst he’s typing sad nonsense!

Worya - chill out, nothing has changed in the fundamentals! DEC cashflow, strategy, debt and output all the same as they were a few days ago and HH is actually up today (unlike Brent). This is only going to hit day traders - it’ll all smooth out. As you say nothing in Trump’s ramblings hint at anything other than the need for more power in the US, not less.

Steph, fiddling around with asset values and currency movements is kind of missing the point here.

So what if asset value grows whilst SP to NAV discount continues to grow?

Grow needs to work out why discount is growing beyond 50/60 %.

Is it a fear that values will never be monetised? Is it that even if monetised the shareholders aren’t benefitting directly? Whilst I can understand the logic of BBs whilst share price is so depressed, is it merely spending capital to hide greater SP falls?

Guess Grow somehow need to boost investors’ confidence that asset values are fair and that they have a clearer plan for monetisation and rewarding shareholders - special dividends following significant disposals perhaps.

It’s all about confidence and it seems to be missing at present. I added early yesterday but this is a long term play (mainly on a Revolut payday).

Once Revolut is gone we’ll be less attractive!

Negotiations haven’t “hit a snag” - they have failed to recognise the bleedin’ obvious for the last 2 months!

Which bit of …. the IOCs would like to actually be paid a fair price for their expenses and oil is so difficult to grasp?

Until Iraq and SOMO grasp the obvious and deal with it we’re on local sales and Iraq and KRG are down millions / billions.

All in on LNG then Terry 😀.

Big $750 million loan there and a large failed disposal - is that the same as an acquisition????

I’m in too - but only about 1/4 the value of my DEC holding.

Can’t see Icecream’s deluded ramblings as he’s been filtered since refusing to accept even the possibility that Wood’s forward financial forecasts might be “optimistic.”

However, like all the loons he seems to think he knows best and the rest of the market are clueless.

As per Coldspy’s post, the SP reflects the current conditions and general sentiment - which is often more of a driver than fundamentals (even if they’re true).

I’m still holding as think there will be an offer above 40p so I’ll get out without a loss - but who knows what the chances of a decent profit are now.

GLA

There’ll be another sniper along soon - probably one with a load of Tesla shares and two bullets.

Spag, it may well be trying to be a services and equipment company - problem is it still hasn’t proved that its services and equipment work.

Until they do that - and Italy was supposed to be the shop window - it’s a gamble for would be users and investors alike.

The absence of any positive news is unlikely to be a positive.

You can bang on about anyone realistic being a shorter as much as you like - but in the absence of positive facts and a long history of lies and missed deadlines, negativity is quite understandable.

Terry - stupidly (or perhaps luckily) I doubled down on the 1047 buy (28Feb) with another £10k at 988 (4 Mar) so about £21k of recent buys in profit!

The 867 buys from Mar 24 look even better!

However, pre consolidation holdings still about 25% down - probs about evens with dividends.

Whilst I see ups and downs in SP in the future, I’m happy to hold for divvy - just need to time sells.

Good Luck 😀

Simms, no update last month so nothing at all for Q1.

Must be time for you to tell us all how great EQT are doing and how many things are going to start up this week / month / quarter.

Remind us how great they are at managing cashflow and accurately predicting inflows.

Are you in the bunker with Dumbo?

Terry - I jokingly said ages ago that DEC seemed to be becoming commodity traders who also extracted a bit of gas on the side. Asp’s comments on closing extant hedges and opening new ones supports this.

Using your simple numbers, if you have promised to sell a thing at $2.79 in the future but now think the price is rising much higher, you can promise to buy another thing at say $3, hoping you can sell it at the eventual $3.57 price.

So you’ve “lost” 21 cents but “gained” 57 cents. As long as trading costs and interest are less than the 36 cents difference you’re up!

These are difficult to see as there’s multiple transactions at different prices on different days and the accounts just show a snapshot on one day.

Hopefully they’re getting more calls / puts etc right than wrong!

As for paying interest to have a load of cash handy, perhaps they can’t get an RCF that cheap at present but need the flexibility for acquisitions, BBs, short term cash flow, derivative trading, dividends etc until Maverick output hits the bottom line.

Only time will tell. 😀

Looks like we’d be better off selling shares and buying Genel bonds! Not surprised it was fully subscribed at 11% pa!