Bubbles16 Dec 2020 10:10
Just a quick point on the Aussie/Chinese spat. Its entirely political and will just end up meaning that commodities will be shipped on less economically prudent routes thats all.
So if China takes no commodities from Australia, and lets say its copper, and they take it all from say Ecuador, that just means that the previous buyers of Ecuadorean copper will have to get it from somewhere else, say Australia. No effect on supply and demand and probably means that ships will pass each other going in the opposite direction on longer and less economic routes. Pretty much all copper (and most commodities) is the same. Its all of a standard, deliverable into the LME (or other exchange warehouse). The slight grade differentials between a high grade and a standard grade would probably account for less than 1% of the price.
So the Chinese can say no to Aussie wheat, iron ore, copper, gold, whatever. It wont make much difference at all. The Chinese may pay a bit more, the Aussies may get a bit less and more ships will be transporting goods on sub economic routes that will mean more pollution etc. If you want to take advantage of this perceived trade shift, then buy the Baltic Dry freight index....