Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Bernard it’s difficult to know where to start with your post. Comparing arb to ggp is quite ridiculous as one is a proper company and the other is an outright punt. Arb would be better compared to the 3.30 at haddock park.
‘Normal’ returns are maybe 7% per year on a broad stock mkt portfolio and the returns you get are an indication of the risk that you took. So my guess is that you don’t understand the risks you are taking on arb and think that it’s something close to the risk free rate.
Good luck. Sounds like you might need it.

Afternoon iPad. The maxim in the oil biz is, explore with equity, develop with debt. I think it holds true in all mining too.
So I don’t think we should be raising any debt for anything at scally. I would prefer a farm out with NC, if there is something there...

Speedy, you are about as diversified as I am! Which isn’t much...

Evening Paddy that’s why back last April there were those who said it will be bigger than kalgoorlie. In fact I think the comment was twice kalgoorlie....

Morningstar has all the info, if a little dated...

So if BHP and NC dont like NM doing NSR deals with FN, why doesnt NM offer them both an NSR deal on same terms as FN? NC cant have a philosophical problem with NSR deals as they have done them before.
Would be an interesting move by NM, though if BHP want to buy cheap equity it might not solve their problem. But there is the market for that...

Hi Jet. I saw the news yesterday where a nurse was advocating war. America is a really strange place sometimes, well actually a lot more than just sometimes.
Copper pushing higher again. Must be all those bullets they are making....

IMO it would be the end of NM (and maybe Solgold too) if NM cosied up to BHP and NC and then shafted them by doing a deal with others. He may bring others in but only as well as BHP/NC, not instead of.
But it could be a master plan that irks BHP sufficiently that they are fed up and launch a bid. As usual with NM its brinkmanship rather than leadership if it goes that way.

Speedy, you and others have rightly stated that 1920 is a key resistance area and once broken we should move swiftly higher.
We have been above 1920 all this week, so is it fair to say that 1920 has been breached and will now become a key support area?

Political, financial, geological, commodity, social, environmental, Human Resources just for starters. None of these score zero except to you by the sounds of it.

Sorry Quady but in a long line of posts I completely disagree with, that has won the gold medal. No risk? Are you completely barking??

There is a general understanding in the gold mining space (maybe other mined products too) that majors don’t leg over junior partners. Hostile bids are rare. Majors won’t get far if they get a bad reputation for deals. I think it’s still true that most discoveries are done by juniors.
So NC are playing it fair so far. I wouldn’t have expected anything else. Otherwise they could have gone hostile when scally was excluded.
I like win/wins and NC don’t seem to mind ggp having a few smallish (by NC standards) wins. That’s how you build long term relationships.

Quady it was a bit tongue in cheek which I realise doesn’t work on bb! But big asset, no cash, tiddler going it alone, vultures circling. There are some similarities.
The big difference is that solgold has a mine with a product the world needs....

Bozi. Well I could say that nm should have done what ggp did and farmed it out as that yielded a twenty fold sp increase for Ggp but that would be with the benefit of hindsight.
I have been in agreement with addicknt all along. Explore, discover, prove up, sell and repeat. Sp could be £10 in a few years.
The alternative Quady methodology risks sxx type returns. All imo and I am allowed an opinion....

Hi addicknt. As usual you are spot on. My concern now is that having over played his hand quite appallingly, NM has now been told by the board, who finally have some gravitas, and not just yes men, to sort things out with bhp and NC. This may mean a worse deal is likely than one he could have got earlier. Or the price will be his head.

TmT, superb analysis in clear and relatively concise posts. One thing that struck me as I read it was the question of who does it benefit most? In % terms of value clearly ggp as it’s so much smaller a company. But in absolute dollars it will benefit NC far more. And that’s the beauty of the deal for me, NC have a deal that adds a lot of dollars to their nav and ggp have a deal that adds a lot of % to their sp.
It will go down in gold history as a classic imo.

LP, I am sure you are right that there is an art to reading RNSs. I have never heard a CEO be so blatant in his view that the market is wrong and just doesn’t understand his company. I am sure there have been others and some shoddy people have ramped their company on the back of nothing. I believed GH, and maybe that was naive of me, but there was quite a bit of evidence to support him. For most of 2019 the sp was 1.55-1.90p, so everyone had plenty of time to do their own research.
On Fundsmith, I am a huge fan of Terry Smith, and when I think mainstream equities offer a better risk/reward I will be putting some money back with him.

Hi LP. When Had5 drill hole results came out, I thought the share was worth 2.5-3p. When Gervaise said something along the lines of the market just doesn’t understand, I thought it could be worth 6p. Since then the news has always been ahead of the sp and so on risk/reward it seemed to make sense to hold on. No great rocket science from me, I leave that to Bamps and hydro etc etc but you sort of learn who to believe and so like most people here, and in life, you get to trust some more than others.

Morning LP. Oh yes I have about 15 other stocks and investments.
Some out and out punts like CHF and FOG, and GDXJ, ELY and SSLN are in the etf space.
Merian gold and silver as a play on silver miners along with DSV. And the problem child that is Solgold. Plus loads of cash. No broad equities though.
The only stock I would consider that isn’t in the mining and exploration space is L’Oréal. The only funds that I would consider would be fundsmith and Lindsell train, both of which I have held before - but not in next six months as I feel that things could get rocky.

Afternoon all. A very happy and healthy new year to you all.
Dimvestor and condorlini, you may well be ahead of me now. I am down to 18.75m having sold down my taxed holding that is outside my isas. This has been about portfolio and tax management along with building a cash pot for a holiday home. It isn’t a negative or less positive view of the company. Still have a bit more to sell but won’t be doing that at these prices and expect to hold the balance for this year at least.
SaS I think you asked a question earlier on what is a lot, or something similar. Well I think anyone would think that what some have made on here is more than a lot. But some don’t look at the gains as pounds but just a question of risk/reward and what is the alternative investment or use of the money. It’s a complex subject. For me I can now afford my dream villa in menorca or Mallorca, but with COVID restrictions I can’t actually view any so the dream is still some way distant.
Someone else asked a question of paddy and myself about what career we had or in his case still has. I am a retired commodity trader (80-90) and equity trader (90-05). Still got the trading bug though.....