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I agree that point 6 might be a bit too much. It's better to try and keep the extra fees low than to say that it needs to be put in stocks

Thanks Glen!
I would propose one small change an that is to cap the salary of everyone on the payroll big RKH to 100k until the sanction of Sealion. This makes sure that a change in board members won't create the same problem we have now

In this scenario the higher the multiplication factor of the costs, the lower the chance of a win need to be to at least break even. The downside is that the lower the chance, the more people need to be employed. Thinking along this line, I would expect that the lawyers think that RKH stands a good chance in winning.

I have no clue if I'm right here ... Assuming I would run a law firm, then I would make sure that the no win, no fee cases would be cash positive when looking at the bigger picture. Only cases that seem promising (e.g. a 60-70% chance to win or higher) would be considered. If there is a win, it should be roughly double the costs. This way the cases that aren't won can also be paid and there will be money leftover for profits. This way the "insurance" is already build into the fee.

Mogger,
A good find like always. I'm having some difficulty understanding these legal things. Can you explain in laymen terms what this could mean for OM?

I forgot who said it, but about a week ago it was posted that Sam would contact them about their progress. This seems to be their reply. Is there anyone who knows if the closure and the decision could come at the same time? (and if that is likely)

"After the closure the decision is due within 120." This does not mean it's at least 4 months away. The decision could theoretically also be at the same time as the closure is announced. In practice this will be very unlikely. But then again ... Theoretically practically anything is possible

It's crazy ... volume is around 100K and the day is almost over. I can't remember when the volume was so low. Will this be the silence before the storm?

Godders, we haven't started our 120 days yet. This will start after the closure, which is expected "early 2021". In my opinion March is the latest that will still count as early 2021. If this is true, then we should get a RNS this week. Let's hope so

It might seem like that, but it just depends on the first person wanting to trade. Often a lower start occurs when the closure of the previous day was on the high side (and vice versa)

Nigoil should be right at least once in a while...

Yes, that's true. But those days will start after the closure. So the question is when the countdown will start

From the last update: "Deliberations have continued and work on the award is advancing. The Tribunal will revert to the Parties in the early part of 2021 with any final questions it might have or, if none, the declaration of the closure of the proceedings as per ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1)."

Who would like to make a guesstimate when it will be?
1. next week?
2. This month, but not next week
3. Somewhere in April?
4. After April

My personal guess would be option 2, but that might very well be wishful thinking

I'm curious if it will break the 10.5p threshold today ... Oil is flying, so I wouldn't be surprised

Market only open for a bit more than 2 hours and the daily volume is already the second largest of this month. Could be interesting. And PMO is flying today too.

The 275M is in USD. So that would translate to roughly £0.42. But in theory it could be close to the 60p you mention because of the part "plus probably interest". If this would happen, we could all buy a new pair of slippers.

It sure is getting interesting this year. And let's hope we are lucky for once. OM can indeed give is a much stronger position if there will be a nice payout. If we look at it like extreme optimists, then the closure will be really soon (early 2021 could even be tomorrow!). Within 180 days after closure there will be a decision. Maybe they already calculated all possible outcomes and have the decision ready to go. What else did they do in all that extra time. So, if we look at it like extreme optimists, OM closure will be this month and decision the month after that (they need to keep up the appearance that it was a hard decision).

It would be so nice if the optimistic scenario would become reality

(would be so nice if the optimistic view would become reality)

Don't forget that the energy demand keeps increasing (except for a small crises now and again...)

This truly is the longest waiting game I've ever been in...
To fill those endless moments of checking if something happened, let's chew up some of the old stuff...

When will everything around OM be finalized?
- final questions or closure of the proceedings: early part of 2021. I read this as before the end of March. Who thinks there will be final questions? I sincerely hope not.
- decision: 120 days after closure + 60 days extension. This should be at the end of August at the latest.

And what dates can we think of concerning Sealion?
- Merger Premier and Chrysaor: end of March
- Navitas farm in: Before end of September (if at all)

For the FID, I have no clue when/if that would happen.
There are a few different options:
1. without Navitas and without UKEF
2. without Navitas and with UKEF
3. with Navitas and without UKEF
4. with Navitas and without UKEF
5. No FID (specially added for Godders)

I expect that they will try option 2 first, then 1 if UKEF fails. Where are we on the timescale in this situation?

Are there any other things which we can look forward to?

@Arfur_Uggins: what should happen in your opinion before it reaches £7,50?