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And the 900 million was already paid in 2011, so it took 4 years to get the biggest chunk and 12 extra years for the remainder.

For those who don't have access to the Bloomberg article, this is the gist of it. There was an initial award of 1.4 billion. Then it got partially annulled because "the compensation was not calculated under applicable law, among other issues.". In the end they should have received $984.5 million but only got $907.5 million. It has now been ruled that they should also get the remaining $76.9 million plus a little over $1 million to cover their legal expenses. To me this accounts for $78 million instead of $77 million, but I'm not accustomed to the maths of a Bloomberg journalist.

I'm indeed really curious what's going on. Since the 26th of July the navitas share price is steadily increasing every day. If you look at the long term graph, it surely is shooting up now. Did anyone manage to find a clue what's going on?

@Chessmaster ... It's peculiar how you try to keep talking the share down ever since you suddenly reappeared. Slipping in some suggestions here and there and acting knowledgeable.

I am curious for your sources where they buy these awards for only 20-25%. I imagine you got your numbers upside down. Selling the award for 75-80% is more common once all the annulment is over and it's a sure win for RKH.

Insinuating a need for new shares is far from logical at this point either. If the warrants are exercised, no new cash is necessary. And with a sure award (we should know within the year), it's way easier to get funding through different means SHOULD that still be necessary.

Was there any mention about the OM arbitration and the fact that the 30+10 days have already passed?

You can register at the RKH website and get an email notification when a new RNS is out.

Yesterday, there were a bunch of trades with only one second apart. I wouldn't be surprised if those were the warrant. Then it means that warrants are exercised around the 19th each month

Why don't you ask Sam in person? The AGM is next week.

It happens once a month so you'll probably have to wait until the beginning of July

55K warrants seem quite a lot for 300K shares.

Do I get it correctly that RKH can collect the money (through any means necessary), but that they have to place the money in a non-european bank account with the rule that they can only use it once the annulment is over?
If the annulment rules in Italy's favour, they can directly get it back through that account. If it rules in RKH's favour, they already have the money ready to go.

Hi Thenorseman,

Thank you for your post. The report of Zeus capital gives a glimpse of their methods and it seems indeed a coincidence that my method and theirs both arrive at exactly 188p for the derisked NAV. Both methods are completely different but it is promising but it's very clear that the upside of this stock is huge.

According to the calculations of Zeus capital the current share price seems to have partially priced in the OM award already but totally discards Sealion. As soon as either of those will be derisked a bit more, it can become very interesting.

@Thenorseman: Where did you find the unrisked NAV of 188p? Was it in the Zeus capital report that only subscribers can access, or did you use my calculations for the low scenario of $60 oil? If it was in the report, it is surprising that it's exactly the same.

@Market-Dealer: This was exactly why I wrote it like this! Thank you for your contribution and I'm grateful that you shared the news with us.

It's been a while since I calculated some scenarios and right now would be a good time for an update again. Assuming Sealion will be produced, the updated assumptions & facts are:
Total costs Sealion phase 1 and 2 = $2.2 billion (RKH share = $770 Millon)
Pre first oil capex = 1.3 billion (RKH share = $455 million)
Non-funded part pre first oil capex = 1/3 * 455 = $151.7 million (2/3 = interest free loan = $303.3 million)
Years to first oil = 3.5-4
Nett OM award = around €200 million (share RKH including interest, excluding taxation)
Shares in issue 587 million + warrants = 641,234,290
Mean daily production = 40.000 at the beginning and around 80.000 barrels per day in the end (RKH share = 14-28.000)
Costs per barrel = $27.60 + royalties (guess of $7.40, but I really don't know)
Oil price = $60-100
Profit per barrel = $25-65
Pre tax profit per year = $255.5-664.3 million (assuming full production)
Profit to company ratio = 1:10 (assumption, which is partly based on the upside potential)

Low case scenario ($60 oil, no OM award)
RKH would have a pre tax yearly profit of $255.5 million per year, 640 million shares and capex of 770 million. RKH would be worth (225.5*10-770)/640=1485/640=$2.32 per share or £1.88 per share.

Medium scenario ($75 oil, with OM award)
RKH would have a pre tax yearly profit of $408.8 million per year, 640 million shares and capex of 770 million and €200/$217 million OM award. RKH would be worth (408.8*10-770+217)/640=3535/640=$5.52 per share or £4.47 per share.

High scenario ($100 oil, with OM award)
RKH would have a pre tax yearly profit of $664.3 million per year, 640 million shares and capex of 770 million and €200/$217 million OM award. RKH would be worth (664.3*10-770+217)/640=6090/640=$9.52 per share or £7.71 per share.

Higher taxations and a lower profit to company value ratio could make the estimations an overestimate. Other growth potential like Isobel and the southern Falklands could make the estimations an underestimate.

I won't be surprised if they wait with the FID until the OM arbitration is finished.

A final hearing in relation to Italy's request to annul the Award is scheduled to take place in Q1 2024, which nicely aligns with FID in 2024.

If I remember correctly, there was some kind of arrangement that the award should be used for the development of Sea Lion. One third of Rockhoppers net working interest project costs needs to be paid by RKH and falls outside Navitas loan. With $1.3 billion of pre first oil capex, that means it's roughly $150 million until first oil.

FID during 2024 and first oil is expected 30 months after that! If it's in the first half of 2024, first oil will be in 2026!

A €190 million awards seems indeed on the small side of we consider what's written in the report. Something halfway 68 million and 1.5 billion would be a lot nicer

"228. The Claimants also present a “pre-tax high case”
valuation of Ombrina Mare, which factors
in 3C resources, an oil price of USD 100/bbl, and his lowest discounting rate, 8%, and that
produces a valuation of no less than EUR 1.5 billion.

229. On the lower end, the Claimants present a valuation using the “least beneficial” factors – 2C
resources, USD 60/bbl, and a high discount rate of 15%. This calculation results in a value
closer to just EUR 68 million.
"

Don't pin me down on it, but I vaguely remember an announcement quite some time ago that FID/sanction would be expected either 2023 or beginning 2024.

February 21, 2023
Rockhopper Italia S.p.A., Rockhopper Mediterranean Ltd, and Rockhopper Exploration Plc file a rejoinder on the Italian Republic’s request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.