Member Info for JEBR

There are 4 events that should take place in the next two weeks

- 17th of June: by FIG mentioned date to offer the EIS for public consultation

- 18th of June: the arbitration commission send some questions to both parties and requested to have these answered by this date

- 25th of June: AGM

- 30th of June: deadline for approving the monetisation deal regarding OM

FIG is planning to release the EIS for public consultation next Monday. I don't know much about such a document. Can this have any effect on the share price?

That would require no new shares and that RKH gets a market value of 39 billion. I would love to see that happening, but considering that sealions NPV was valued at 4 billion at $77 oil of which 1.4 billion is RKH's share, there needs to be happening some strange things. Even a $150 oil price would require 6-7 extra sealions.

A couple of years ago, I suggested something similar to Sam. He said that the people from the Falklands would never accept that. The pain is deep for what happened during the Falkland war and all that Argentina did afterwards

The first piece of news is probably the EIS report

"An extensive Environmental Impact Statement for the Sea Lion project

was completed in 2020. The Operator started pre-consultation in November

2023 as part of updating the EIS and it is anticipated that this document will

be put out for public consultation before the end of May 2024."

Second piece of news might be small and could be just a mention that both parties provided questions relating to the annulment hearing. This should be handed in by the 18th of June.

Third piece of news can be the signing of the monetisation by FIG before the end of this month.

Do we expect any other news before FID announcement?

Annual report can be found here https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Rockhopper-AR-2023-FINAL_SCREEN.pdf

Other posters are way more enlightened than me, but here's my take. A third partner will not only reduce risks and bring in more options financially, it also strengthens the "team" enormously. Having an existing mid size oil company joining in, will enable access to knowledge and experienced personnel. Furthermore, it can serve as a catalyst to open up the oil fields around the Falklands. In other words, briging in a third partner around FID is maybe especially valuable for future developments concerning phase 2 of sealion and opening up Isobel

@Aiminveators: you probably misinterpreted this section:

"I am delighted to have joined Rockhopper at such a pivotal point in the Company's history. Whilst risks plainly remain, it is possible that by this time next year we will have both completed the monetisation of our Ombrina Mare Arbitration and seen FID at Sea Lion. Both would be hugely significant catalysts for the Company, and represent the culmination of many years of hard work by our dedicated team."

It doesn't state that FID has been postponed to next year but that next year he hopes to see this being materialized already.

Most of it was already known, although of course good news to see it in writing. Also like the words: identified, available and interested in the below text. And that the EIS per consultation already started in november 2023

This optimised development scheme is based on the use of identified Floating Production, Storage and Offtake vessels ("FPSO") which are both suitable and available. Discussions are advanced with a number of contractors who are available and interested in offering all services required to bring the project into production.

All in all a good RNS.

The only thing that will happen once the deadline is reached, is that the parties are no longer bound to the agreement. They are still free to continue under the same terms.

Here's the archived article without a paywall: https://archive.is/hRUYQ

This link should work better

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Thenorseman, they are correct to state that the world warmed up in the last 300 years without humans playing a significant role in it, but it is taken out of context. The reason the world warmed up (a bit) was because of the little ice age (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age). This was roughly between the 16th and 19th century. That foundation is using some commom techniques to fool ignorant people by taking a very selective period and using this as 'proof'. If you want to learn more about fooling people with something that seems scientific, I highly recommend "How to lie with statistics" from Darrell Huff. In the meantime, just go to the Wikipedia page or look up any other source with a picture of the average temperatures of the last 1000 years and make sure they include the last 2-3 decades. Everyone would immediately see that the last 2-3 decades warm up way quicker than would be possible if it would be a natural event. Still, I believe the world will need oil for the foreseeable future and I prefer the oil coming from the Falklands and that something is done to (partly) offset the CO2 emissions than that it's coming from some other place.

If you show pictures as "proof" at least show a picture that includes the last two decades.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_last_2,000_years#/media/File%3A2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg

Well done Alma!

And Chess ... I don't know why you are acting like you do. It couldn't hurt pointing out something like this. Better be safe than sorry. And your negativity about FIG is also strange. During some earlier AGM it became clear that it's extremely unlikely that RKH will have to pay taxes on something that they didn't receive, but that it does reduces the chance of a hostile takeover. Sam has great connections with Fig and I'm confident that they take great care in the timing of certain events.

As always, great find Mogger.

It seems like they are drowning in work over there. For those who don't want to read the entire report, here are the most interesting parts:

- 7.6 One of the high priority projects is the Offshore Minerals project, which is not yet planned or quantified. That project is likely to take several years to complete

- They propose to prioritise Oil readiness legislation (including Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation Regs and Petroleum Valuation).

- There are two legislative drafters that are dedicated to the entire Programme of which one is already working almost entirely on the Offshore Minerals Programme.

- Offshore Minerals and Telecommunications remain MLAs’ top priorities

My take on this is that it's Navitas business model to reduce risk significantly by investing in projects that are already discovered. This way there is not really a risk in IF it get's developed, but only in WHEN and if it will be on budget. What I also like is that Gideon is someone that delivers time and time again. If we take his word, this will mean that Sealion will definitely be developed (otherwise Navitas wouldn't even have participated) and that it will be very likely that it will be on time and on/under budget.

Part 4:

That you encounter what you expected to encounter because with the ground it's very hard to influence everything else can be arranged why run to additional projects because in the end a company or a partnership in this case like Nevitas is built from a portfolio of projects that's exactly what I did also in Israel there was Yam Tatis people like you asked me why are you going to Tamar isn’t Yam Tatis enough if we hadn't gone to Tamar where would we be today as a country why after Tamar are we going to Leviathan isn’t Tamar enough what was your reach to some limits to exploit our relative advantage to think outside the box which is a cliché but in our case let's mark it I can tell you that around the world we are seen as a company that is a kind of magic but what’s important the ability to do it again and again the other important thing is the right timing of the projects not to cash too much in investments in a project until the project is not ripe and that's something we did in the past and we are doing it today in Nevit that’s another advantage that the institutional bodies told me before a conversation with you that you manage to achieve financial closure before before the initial investments the investments are actually already closed in advance how do you do that against the I'll show you it was very very challenging especially with Shennanduah in 2021 when ESG someone remembers those three letters ESG once were very relevant recently less popular but people refrained from lending bodies banks filled up from raising for a fossil project because of the ESG today that has changed I can tell you that all the bodies all the bodies even those that previously refrained today are sitting in Nevitas both in equity and in debt it gives us tremendous power without the Israeli equity market we wouldn't be able to I see it generally as a partnership between us to the capital market in Israel without them we wouldn't reach where we are arriving and we specialize in financial closures of project developments and in 20 21 when there was the greatest difficulty we managed to close the funding for us and for our partners for the project Shennanduah I commend you continue success well done on the entrepreneurship and I think the letter of course that happened deserves to you with grace well done thank you very much and I also want to wish everyone a happy and kosher holiday and may we all know good news and the chair of Elijah the prophet that we always keep just in this case I think it's the chair of the captives and the abducted that we all hope will return in bitterness.

Part 3:

I did a very rough calculation at the bottom line there will be half a billion at the minimum even a bit more we're talking about close to two billion shekels the value of the partnerships is 4 billion shekels what are the investors missing see I think there's a process that we see it you talked about the dramatic rise right that happened this year we went up on the stock exchange by 85% this year we went up by an order of magnitude of 20% so eventually here the market matures to recognize the economic potential and the realization of the economic potential and that's the strength of entrepreneurs by the way there were entrepreneurs here before me who really established here a magnificent industry and they also saw before the market so in a sense we see before the market but I ah that's apropos whether to sell or buy tomorrow morning so as you see me I run for long distances I don't run for short distances so I take a long-term view I very much believe of course in Nets as I believed before in what I did in Delek in Avner and in Delek Drilling at the time what is called today Vament so I think that this potential we are definitely able to realize again in a very unique tag in the world not of renewables here most of the income was from renewables but in the old good fossil world which by the way will remain with us for many many more years and I think there are tremendous opportunities there a value of 10 billion shekels for Nevitas within two three years are possible in your opinion I don't give forecasts but I say again we publish numbers and numbers based on reports done by third parties our task is to realize them but as you said assuming those numbers materialize then the arithmetic is very very simple dividends to investors we said that in our opinion when we are very close to the start of the operation of Shennanduah we will definitely publish a dividend policy as we think we are definitely moving from a phase from a certain company to a company that also knows to distribute dividends so this is definitely something that is in our work plan what risk could there be that the oil production of the project I don't see a risk that will prevent the production but as I said in mega projects always there can be time delays and there can always be additional costs but you have to remember that this project is almost there we have already invested 70% of the money so it is a project that is already in very very very advanced stages of ripening and the biggest risks always are underground and we in this drilling have already drilled three out of four development drillings and this is the risk that always worries me the most when you drill a development drilling.

Part 2:

So wait so let me return to the numbers with your permission the numbers say something like taking the profit and actually valuing it today as Gideon said there is risk there's a development risk still existing but if you adjust it with an interest rate of 10% it reaches values of billions of dollars the part of Nets will take the financing take the funding take other things you still arrive at a value that is dramatically higher than the current value despite a rise of 2.5 times in the stock price it's not a recommendation of course there are risks a small risk realized recently yes there was an accident during the construction of one of the facilities supposed to be part of the project we reported that it's not significant and also reported on a slight delay in the start of production but these are mega projects and mega projects have their complexities but the important point is that there is certainty that Shennanduah will be developed there can always be delays there can always be additional costs although all the projects I developed or was involved in including Tamar including Yam Tatis including Leviathan and also a project in Caskin of Nevitas abroad finished on time and on budget so I'm very good in this regard but anyone who renovated a bathroom at home or I would say a kitchen knows there can be such and other issues but if you take first-line contractors these projects end and end successfully it's like building a power station okay the end is supposed to be in 20-25 the start of production from Shennanduah which is our flagship project the start of production is supposed to be in the second quarter of 2025 okay the year of full production is supposed to yield with the current oil price over a billion dollars in revenue all Nets with the start of production from Shennanduah all the parameters any parameter you choose the production per day the revenue all parameters you choose will be multiplied by about 10 times 10 the moment Shennanduah starts to produce and we already have the project after Shennanduah which is the Silyn project which is the next big thing you’re not resting why rest so many partners on entrepreneurship really but just to understand what the market is missing if at all because usually the market is correct we have a year full of production revenues of a billion.