Member Info for JEBR

And we're now at 84 days since the submission of costs. For half of the cases they needed 77 days, so I'm expecting news anyday now

I looked at that some time ago indeed. Here's what I posted back then:

It took some digging, but I identified 41 cases with an annulment. Based on these cases we can get a bit more info about how long we probably have to wait.

The time until the ad hoc Committee declares the proceeding closed ranged between 0 and 367 days and half of the cases were in 77 days or less.

The time from declaring it closed until the ad hoc Committee issues its decision on annulment ranged between 1 and 93 days and half of the cases were in 36 days or less.

Tot total waiting time from declaration of costs ranged between 34 and 381 days and half of the casese were in 116 days or less. If it's exactly 116 days, it will be the 4th of January 2025.

Tranche 1 has already been paid.

Tranche 2 is worth €31-65 million (or £26-54 million). Due to the insurance a minimum of €31 million is paid (4p per share). When the OM arbitration case is succesful (and the Annulment unsuccessful) €65 million is paid immediately, which equates to 8.4 pence per share.

Tranche 3: this will be paid once Italy paid up, which can take a long long time. My guess is that this will be around €20 million or 2.5p.

The calculations are useful for when we reach first oil, but for the short term I'm also curious where the share price could go.

According to Zeus capital RKH has a nett asset value (NAV) of:

- Core value: 22p

- Risked NAV: 53p

- Unrisked NAV: 212p

This means the share price should be at least 22p.

A conservative Estimate would only include a small part of the possibility of Sealion and OM, which would bring us at 25–30 pence.

A reasonable estimate would be around or just below the risked NAV, which would be 40–50 pence.

An optimistic estimate where we are pretty confident that everything will go according to plan would be a above the risked NAV and a bit closer to the unrisked NAV (in this case the risk of not developing Sealion is seen as small). In this case we should be around 70–100 pence.

I last week is the start of revaluating RKH to better fit the true value, then there is still a major rerating to go.

I've made similar calculations in the past, all ending up above the one pound per share. Zeus capital estimates the core NAV (Nett Asset Value) at 22p, total risked NAV at 53p and total unrisked NAV at 212p. They way I interpret this is that the current shareprice should be worth around 53p, which should increase to the 212p once we hit first oil. All this is based on a long term oil price of $65 per barrel.

A succesful OM outcome should be worth 8p and, because of the insurance, an unsuccesful outcome is worth 4p.

The current post of the day with 21 upvotes is Nick telling us to put Chess on filter.

Https://archive.is/lda4B

Same article without the paywall

Do I read this correctly? (My Hebrew is pretty much nonexistent). There's something about the NPV's. I'm far from an expert, but the way I understand it is that the 0% is the nett present value without applying a discount accounting for risks etc., and then 10% does account for that (and is probably a bit conservative)

NPV (0%, 10%)

Low Estimate (1C): $17,257 million, $2,589 million

Best Estimate (2C): $24,713 million, $3,707 million

High Estimate (3C): $31,276 million, $4,691 million

Even the 1C 10% NPV ($906 million) is already almost 10 times more than the current market price of RK

Navitas hit an all time high today. Really curious what they will tell tomorrow.

I stand corrected. My apologies Chess, I was wrong and you were right.

Wrong again Chess ... Navitas is up around 200% since March 23, which equals around 4000 shekels. I do agree that it would have been a good investment.

Chess, the share price is currently moving between 13 and 14p ... It's not 12p. And it used to be moving between 14 and 15p. So don't make things more dramatic than they are.

It might not have been your intention, but mentioning that Navitas was FID ready in the summer, is great news. Logic would dictate that IF FID is delayed, it will be delayed by just a few months (like some posters said) because FIG takes longer than initially thought to approve the EIS & FDP. You said it yourself that Navitas is FID ready, which means we are waiting for FIGs approval, and right now we're not yet waiting for funding or anything else you might suggest. Sam said that due to the delay with Shenandoah, he would find it more logical to postpone sealion FID until Shenandoah is online. Navitas stated that these two events are independent, which seems logical to me because they have sufficient funding coming their way in the coming months anyway. And because we are still waiting for FIG, it's not very useful to inform the public of the uncertainty if there will be a delay or not. Pretty soon after the EIS and FDP are approved, I expect some news about funding and/or FID, but not before that.

To end with a positive note ... I do appreciate this discussion based on arguments ... Way better than Aims communication style

Chess ... Why don't you just stop posting misleading information? There is no evidence that navitas has trouble getting sealion financed. And to be fair, there is only indirect evidence that navitas has no trouble getting finances for sealion because we only know about all the successful financing packages they arranged for other projects. Talking about how Navitas has tried for years and still hasn't delivered is misleading. Navitas will have to wait until FIG is finished with their work before they can officially show what they've done. Because of a delay with FIG, it is becoming more and more likely that FID won't be in 2024. Saying it might then take years is misleading too. Paul just showed that you also take your quote concerning "the biggest impediment" out of context. I've said it multiple times that you are a subtle deramper. And just to prevent you from using the argument that it's not fair that negative posters are being "attacked" ... It's not related to being positive or negative. It's related about spreading misinformation and this seems to be done one purpose, making it even worse. You and Aim are really acting strangely and it seems like there is a hidden agenda, but that's impossible to prove of course. It would be some twist if it turns out that the two of you are related

Personally, I don't think Navitas is 100% confident that they still manage this year, but I do think they believe it's still possible. If I would be navitas, then I would have everything ready to set in motion as soon as the EIS, FDP and letter of comfort are approved. There can always be delays out of your own control, but as long as Navitas is doing whatever is possible, the delays are minimalised.

We don't know if they are struggling with funding because we still need to wait for EIS and FDP. Once that hurdle is done, we can start to see if they struggle with finance or not. If I remember correctly, tomorrow is another EXCO meeting, so I'm curious what comes out of that.

Talking about similar percentual rises is probably not relevant. It's all about ask and demand. When FID is announced more people and institutions would like RKH shares. If no one is selling them for less than 50p, the share price will shoot to 50p (as long as at least one person is willing to sell for that price. The price should settle at an equilibrium.

It looks like that the share price went down the same amount as the insurance costs plus the costs for selling the Italian assets. That would suggest that the market cap is only reflecting OM and current cash and nothing related to sealion. To me it's a surprise that the share price went down because it greatly reduces risks and it makes RKH FID ready. Maybe it's a treeshake, maybe normal fluctuations, maybe market manipulation or maybe something is happening that I'm not aware off. No matter what it is, I will be very happy to see FID, financing and OM asap.

Thanks Ovets. The article is from january 2024 and the full version can be found here: https://archive.is/b8DgX

I personally prefer as little censorship as possible, which is why I don't filter people, but if it's being done, it should be well balanced. The messages I've seen concerning Aim, Godders or James before they were deleted, actually serve an important purpose and didn't share any information that wasn't already readily available. Aim, Godders and James all seems to have the same alterior motive by talking the share price down, spreading as much negativity as possible and doing so by overflowing the board with posts and new threads. By removing the posts about his possible/plausible alterior motives, a one sided view is being created due to censorship. Which is why, in my view, either the censorship should stop or it should be balanced.