Member Info for JEBR

It seems like a lot of messages get deleted when they concern Aim, Godders or James, even though Aim is definitely not the same person as Godders or James (according to his own statements), Godders left quite some time ago and James never was on here (unless he really was the same person as Godders). I can't phantom why someone will go through all the trouble to hide everything concerning people that are no longer on here anyways and no one has connections with them.

The most mindboggling thing to me is that even though Aim's posts seem to be the most disruptive on here, they are not flagged and removed. I believe it's possible to report posts for the reason of being disruptive.

Great find The Norseman! It is weird though. On the main page there is a mostly hidden text for the sealion part. It says:

"Sea Lion is a significant oil discovery located 220km north of the Falkland Islands. Navitas is promoting a development plan for the project and a formulation of a financing package.

Previous partners drilled 20 exploration and appraisal wells. Past investments amount to approximately USD 1.3 billion. Navitas' experience and prior significant investments will enable the big step towards FID in December 2024."

If we go to that page, we see a slightly different text:

"Sea Lion is a significant oil discovery located 220km north of the Falkland Islands. Navitas Petroleum is promoting a development plan for the project and a financing package.

Previous owners in the Sea Lion field drilled 20 exploration and appraisal penetrations. Past investments amount to approximately USD 1.3 billion. Navitas Petroleum anticipates that a final investment decision (FID) will occur in 2024."

At least good to know that they at least at one point planned FID in december 2024

And here's their view on the both pieces of news: Arbitration: We fully appreciate the logic of this move to insure the arbitration award. Apart from driving a strong balance sheet, the point of the arbitration award cash for Rockhopper is to underpin its equity CAPEX requirement for the Sea Lion development. Paying out the EUR4m insurance cost is unlikely to affect this capability, but losing the full upcoming potential payment would do. As such, it makes good sense to take out the insurance, as Rockhopper has done. Italian asset disposal; In our view, this is a sensible tidying up of the Rockhopper portfolio, facilitated by the cash already received from the Italian arbitration. It allows Rockhopper to remove forward decommissioning liabilities and reduce ongoing cash costs.

The volumes in Sea Lion, 712mmbbl of gross 2C, make the field a world-class asset with the potential to create significant value for Rockhopper. The challenge historically has been progressing this to FID. Operator Navitas is continuing to make progress with the project, reworking the development plan and focusing on securing full funding and moving to FID. Navitas represents a strong partner here, and we look for news on further progress on these workstreams. The proceeds from the Italian arbitration under the monetisation agreement are also providing significant new cash for the company, helping underpin its share of Sea Lion funding. In our view, Rockhopper is now in a very good spot, and we expect upside for the shares as the elements on the route to Sea Lion FID are achieved over the coming months, including further progress on proceeds from the arbitration monetisation deal. We have a positive outlook, valuing the shares at our 48p total risked NAV and 182p total unrisked NAV.

And why are you so pessimistic with your predictions and at the same time say it's a strong buy?

This will mean that RKH will receive af least €31 million from the OM case, regardless the results. The cash balance will be at least $58 million. Even though it costs them €4 million for the insurance, and it seems very improbable that they won't win the arbitration case, it will put RKH in a position to guarantee RKH's share for FID.

I still think FID will take place in 2024 and for OM I'd still see it very likely that it either has been finalized or will be finalised before the end of January. OM should be good for 8.5p (spread out across the 1-2 months before completion), so that's 23p. EIS, FDP and FID should in my view at least double that. My EOY target is 46p at the bare minimum.

Even if Mogger was employed by RKH (which I seriously doubt), then I'm still grateful for all the information he/she shared with us.

To me it seems more plausible that you Aim are the same person behind the username Godders, mainly because of the similarities in speech, negativity and general whinyness, and your apparent agitation around Moggers findings surrounding Godders true identity.

But to get back to the matter at hand, 2024 still has 3 months in it. All predictions so far for significant news were for Q4 2024 and many posters have mentioned that it is not unimaginable that some things will shift slightly to Q1 2025. Seeing the speed that the ICSID is now working, I'm still sticking to my own prediction of an OM outcome this year or at the latest in January 2025. For FID, I'm also still positive that we'll hear something this year, but before that can happen, we need to hear about the EIS and FDP. End of October is my guess for that.

Because we're all relying on news snippets and some rumours, nothing is certain yet. Still it seems very likely that we will see a lot of positives in the next couple of months.

Should nothing have occurred before the first of January, you will receive my apologies of course.

ROI already tried this (in 2018???) and it was unsuccessful. They can probably reuse most, so hopefully it won't take long. At least we now also know the why they want to have it annulled. They believe the ICSID was acting outside of it's jurisdiction.

Although unexpected, it does seem like they want to speed things up. Four updates in a month is a lot, especially for them. I'm curious who this non-disputing party is. EU, some climate group, someone in cahoots with ROI, the Litigation Funder? I hope it's the last one.

September 9, 2024

Each Party files a submission on costs.

September 13, 2024

A non-disputing party files an application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).

September 26, 2024

Each party files observations on the non-disputing party’s application.

October 1, 2024

The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on the non-disputing party’s application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).

Thanks as always Mogger! I agree with you that we will have to wait until probably the day after the next EXCO. During each EXCO, they go over the minutes of the previous meeting. If everything is in order it will be made available for the public.

What do you think DNR/CE means? Department of natural resources, Chief Executive???

For every buy, there is a sell. How it's classified depends on how close it is to the bid and ask price.

Let's hope you bought at the perfect time. Tomorrow the excom meeting at the Falklands will take place. I wonder if there will be news or even an RNS after that about EIS, FDP and/or the letter of comfort.

For the OM results, I'll expect the next news to come in somewhere between 1-3 months after all parties filed the submission of costs, which was on the 9th of September, so somewhere between the 9th of October and the 9th of December.

Brilliant post Croft! Keep up the good work ;)

Yes, today FIG should have received the reactions from Navitas. The consultation period ended on the 13th of August. From that point on Navitas had 28 days to reply to the reactions, which is today. If I understand the process correctly, FIG will now have a meeting in which they will make the decision wether or not to approve the EIS. I hope that they will do this simultaneously with the FDP. @Mogger: do you know if this is correct and if so, when the meeting will probably be?

R1234, nice to see my post was valued and thanks for the credit.

It took some digging, but I identified 41 cases with an annulment. Based on these cases we can get a bit more info about how long we probably have to wait.

The time until the ad hoc Committee declares the proceeding closed ranged between 0 and 367 days and half of the cases were in 77 days or less.

The time from declaring it closed until the ad hoc Committee issues its decision on annulment ranged between 1 and 93 days and half of the cases were in 36 days or less.

Tot total waiting time from declaration of costs ranged between 34 and 381 days and half of the casese were in 116 days or less. If it's exactly 116 days, it will be the 4th of January 2025.

I stick to my best guess that the annulment is completed end of December or a few days later.

Everything shifted by about a week. End of consultation periode should be around the 11th

Chess, I believe you are referring to the below part in the final results. Any well written report should write down potential risks and prepare for them accordingly. If securing funding is the biggest risk, this can seen as something negative, like you seem to assume. Or like something positive where everything else is going so well that this is the only risk left. Or as I see it, pretty much a statement of what is and isn't certain at the moment of writing. They can't say funding will be a walk in the park when it's not finalised.

PRINCIPAL RISK AND UNCERTAINTIES

A detailed review of the potential risks and uncertainties which could impact the Group are outlined elsewhere in this Strategic Report. The Group identified its key risks at the end of 2023 as being:

1 oil price volatility;

2 availability and access to capital;

3 joint venture partner alignment; and

4 failure of joint venture partners to secure the requisite funding to allow a Sea Lion Final Investment Decision.

I don't remember the exact timing, but last time they announced a bond offering about 2-3??? weeks before they were actually offered on the Israeli market and within 1-2 days the money was raised. Navitas has done this already several times so I expect something similar.

Seriously Aim, stop all this. To get funding, you might need to know exactly how much you need and also if you're allowed to do the project. We're waiting for the EIS and then the FDP. Once these two are done, funding can start. Will you finally stop all these annoying dumb questions of which you already know the answer but only say to deramp it.

To compensate for all this annoyance you caused us, I would very much appreciate you treat all of us to a 5 course dinner after the AGM of next year when we've had a successful OM outcome, sealion fully funded and sanctioned and work is on it's way to actually get the oil out of the ground. What do you say? Is that a deal?

Aim, everything points towards that navitas have everything ready to go. As soon as EIS and FDP is approved by FIG, they can set things into action. The comfort letter, the mentioning of having found a bank and Navitas track record for finding funding say enough.