Member Info for JEBR

Grim, it will be lovely if you do what you say you do. Especially what you wrote in the 2nd of Jan 2025: "I post again end 2025".

CJ, the EOY predictions can be found in this thread and was posted two days ago. And the one week after FID predictions (mid 2025) are:

Neilius 100

longtermthinker 75

BlueDefender 65

JEBR 60,5

McCloughry 60

digitalboy1 58,5

Scottjr2 53

Bigred7 51

CJ1986 50

jackman444 49

Might be good to repost the end of year prediction we had in the beginning of this year. The share price was in the high twenties back then and no trade war yet. Using this, we can more easily see if someone is suddenly ramping or deramping.

burnwell 300

OscarIndiaLima 292

lovely80085 277

HotMustard 252

davef24 220

Spacesmate 155

Neilius 150

Stillneedoil 132

BB_hoppa 125

Henrygroucho 122

digitalboy1 117

blatav1 115

Bigred7 111

croftoriginal2 109.5

Chaiwallah 108

CanYouDiglt 107

oilfieldhand 106

Nastynick 99.5

Tincan1995 99

Muchaboutmoney 92

longtermthinker 91

Scottjr2 90

stoney63 89.5

BuildersBum3 89

Offshorepilot 88

Mygainmyloss 87

Gardie 85

Kerching 84

LEEDS5 81

Taurus8 80

Bootledodger 79

JEBR 78.5

buffit 78

jackman444 77.5

Longtermholder98 77

Orbit10 76

dictumdedicto 75.5

CJ1986 75

Tagg 74

hsbilkhu 73

Mrs SpaceHoppa 72.5

JPDM 72

tractorboy01 69

fecm 68.5

Thenorseman 68

Cingene 67.5

Fin147 67

HonestTom 66

unionjack1 65.5

Xmtman 65

BrightSpot 62.5

Bridget 62

Bpool53 61

ArielArrow 59

Market-Dealer 58

Neil423 54

SpaceHoppa 51

McCloughry 50

oiluser 48

BlueDefender 46

Morforus 43

r1234 40

It's not so much as what we can find but more how much money can be asked to sell part of it to a third partner

I wouldn't be surprised if RKH can join the FTSE AIM UK 50 Index either in June or September.

Borrowing the nice calculation of Space, we get the following:

If production reaches an average of 150,000b/d and Opex costs are $17/bbl. The maths with POO at $70bbl and Opex costs at US$17 are

150,000bbls x $53 = $7.95M revenue per day,

Say 345 days production a year to allow for down time = $2743million gross profit a year

Royalty on turnover is 9% so $2496m before tax

Corp Tax is 26% after the $700m tax we have to write off (which is already done after the first two years and irrelevant here)

With 26% corp tax, is 1847m net profit

35% of 1847m is $646m net Rockhopper profit. Assuming a conservative £0.75 to the dollar, we get £485m net profit per year, which is twice the current market cap.

I might be mistaken, but it looks like the automated trades are pushing this down today.

At 3 knots an hour, they should arrive around noon on Friday the 21st! Anyone know how long it takes until first oil once it's there?

It's passing the webcam right now and it's truly massive

Seems things are going well. Did anyone already find some news from Navitas that would explain today's rise or is it the market pricing in first oil?

Navitas said that they are exploring the options of an extra partner. They said it in such a way that they don't need an extra partner, but if a good enough offer comes along they're open for it. They way I interpreted it, is that there are multiple potential partners that showed interest, which isn't weird if they manage securities from FIG for risks of changing policy and can improve the Argentine relations (which both seem to be happening). Time will tell ... Pretty soon

LTT ... Would love to see that happening and would also explain the recent job post that statta in July, but could start earlier (e.g., May) depending on Navitas. Fingers crossed for FID already in two months

Hi Ephemeral. It seems that the RKH lawyers believe that OM will be concluded either in March or April. FID should be mid 2025 and is likely to happen after first oil of Shenandoah, which is planned for Q2 2025. And first oil for Sealion is planned for end of 2027.

I'm still surprised by this seemingly insane trade just after closing hours. Makes me want to believe that this individual knows about something we don't know, but maybe they just made a typo and wanted to buy for 40p?

For those struggling with Hebrew:

"Monument Project - Entry into a Project Financing Agreement of up to USD 150 Million

Further to section 8.3.4 of Chapter A of the periodic report of the partnership for the year 2023 (hereinafter: the "Periodic Report"), the partnership is pleased to announce that on February 20, 2025, wholly-owned subsidiaries of the partnership (hereinafter: the "Project Companies") entered into a project financing agreement (hereinafter: the "Loan Agreement") for the provision of a credit facility in an aggregate amount of up to USD 150 million for the development of the Monument Project (hereinafter: the "Project").

The financing will be provided by a consortium of banks and financial institutions, both local and foreign (hereinafter: the "Lenders") for the purpose of financing the partnership’s share in the project development. The credit facility is a non-recourse loan, meaning the lenders have no recourse against the partnership beyond the pledged assets.

The agreement becomes effective upon signing, subject to the fulfillment of all necessary conditions. Below is a summary of the main terms"

The rest of the document contains the Key Terms of the Loan Agreement

Can anyone explain Zaza?

And talking about the guessing game, this thread might be interesting too

It all depends on what information you feed to the large language model. Chatgpt mentioned that they only had reliable price trends for RKH up to 2021 (which I'm a bit sceptical about though). When feeding it with information about the share price movements of the last years and especially the last few months plus the Navitas news of the end of November, it comes up with the following:

Bullish Scenario

Price holds the lower boundary of the current flag (mid 30s) and breaks above 40–41p with good volume.

Immediate target: ~45–50p (psychological / interim level).

Potential extension: If momentum remains strong, technical “flagpole” measurement could project toward the 65p region.

Neutral or Bearish Scenario

Price breaks below the mid 30s (the lower flag boundary) on strong volume, potentially drifting down toward the 30–34p area (the prior low or 50% retracement from the entire move).

A further breakdown below the low 30s might see a return to high 20s or mid-20s, depending on historical support.

News disappointments (e.g., Shenandoah delays, adverse FIG taxation stance) could exacerbate downside.

In this tread you can find the link to a navitas presentation and the transcript where they mention that FID will happen after first oil of Shenandoah

The way I understand it is that the interest can change from day to day but the 12-month eurolibor is applied (which also changes from day to day). There was also a period where interest didn't accrue (believe it was around the time of requesting for the annulment. Other posters might know the details a bit better. Hopefully we will hear the actual amount already next week, preventing us from making our own calculations.