Member Info for JEBR

Croft, I don't know what you've been drinking (must be nice). The Circular is clear: 645,213,765 Existing Ordinary Shares were in issue at the Latest Practicable Date (see Capital Raising Statistics, p.6). The 13,968,301 Open Offer shares is a fixed maximum. The Enlarged Share Capital after the placing and Open Offer would be up to 849,406,980 shares.

There’s no mention anywhere of 419,049,052. That number isn’t in the Circular. The entitlement ratio of “1-for-30” simply doesn’t follow from the official figures. On today’s numbers it would be closer to 1-46.

The number of existing ordinary shares according to the circular is 645,213,765 (page 6). Can you tell me where in the circular it states 419,049,052 shares? I can't find it.

Croft, where did you find this? As far as I know it's not known yet what the ratio will be. I'm still assuming that it will be about 1 in 45-50

In the circular it states that the open offer will be available as soon as possible after FID. Practically speaking it will very likely be announced at the same time or at least on the same day. Normally you have 7-14 days to decide if you want to take part in the offer and the shares are distributed not long after that. The record date will be determined before the open offer, which will very likely be either at FID or before that. We will roughly be eligible for 1 share for every 45-50 we hold and institutional investors are not allowed to partake

It's common with a sudden rise in share price to retrace to roughly 50% of the rise and then move further up. It went from 77 to 87 in a day, so if the same rule applies here, it will stabilise around 82 and then move up again. Although these general rules of thumb might not apply for the unique situation RKH is in right now

Silverfoil, it's not so weird actually if you look at how these projects are valued during the different phases. RKH's share price is neatly following the Lassonde curve.

Thanks Dai, it's indeed 85%! Don't know why I wrote 80%. Just means the loan is laid back even quicker

Happy,

The NSAI $1.845bn NPV10 is pre-financing and assumes Rockhopper pays all early capex itself. In reality, Navitas carries 2/3 of those costs and RKH only repays later out of 80% of free cash flow, with no interest. That means the heavy negative capex in 2024–27 is pushed into later years, where it is far less punitive under a 10% discount rate. So the carry does not reduce the $1.845bn, if anything, properly modelling it makes RKH’s post-financing NPV higher, not lower.

Happy, due to the 10% discount per year, the NPV10 for phase 1&2 is pretty similar to the NPV10 of the entire project. If you want to check my calculations, just click on my name, scroll down a bit to the 6th of August and you'll find all you need.

Furthermore, valuations and barrels in the ground isn't the same. Also the carry on of Navitas is already included in the NPV10 of the report. What's not included is the money RKH puts in there after the capital raise.

And the end of year prediction we had in the beginning of this year. The share price was in the high twenties back then and no trade war yet. Using this, we can more easily see if someone is suddenly ramping or deramping.

burnwell 300

OscarIndiaLima 292

lovely80085 277

HotMustard 252

davef24 220

Spacesmate 155

Neilius 150

Stillneedoil 132

BB_hoppa 125

Henrygroucho 122

digitalboy1 117

blatav1 115

Bigred7 111

croftoriginal2 109.5

Chaiwallah 108

CanYouDiglt 107

oilfieldhand 106

Nastynick 99.5

Tincan1995 99

Muchaboutmoney 92

longtermthinker 91

Scottjr2 90

stoney63 89.5

BuildersBum3 89

Offshorepilot 88

Mygainmyloss 87

Gardie 85

Kerching 84

LEEDS5 81

Taurus8 80

Bootledodger 79

JEBR 78.5

buffit 78

jackman444 77.5

Longtermholder98 77

Orbit10 76

dictumdedicto 75.5

CJ1986 75

Tagg 74

hsbilkhu 73

Mrs SpaceHoppa 72.5

JPDM 72

tractorboy01 69

fecm 68.5

Thenorseman 68

Cingene 67.5

Fin147 67

HonestTom 66

unionjack1 65.5

Xmtman 65

BrightSpot 62.5

Bridget 62

Bpool53 61

ArielArrow 59

Market-Dealer 58

Neil423 54

SpaceHoppa 51

McCloughry 50

oiluser 48

BlueDefender 46

Morforus 43

r1234 40

The one week after FID predictions (mid 2025) are:

Neilius 100

longtermthinker 75

BlueDefender 65

JEBR 60,5

McCloughry 60

digitalboy1 58,5

Scottjr2 53

Bigred7 51

CJ1986 50

jackman444 49

Happy, can you share your calculations? Or otherwise show where I made mistakes in mine?

To combat both the rampers and derampers, check out my calculations for the NPV for different years posted on the 6th of August at 14:34.

Based on the best available public data, the true value of sealion for RKH is around £1.80 per share directly after FID. This doesn't take into account a discount due to the risks until first oil, which means that the actual price will be lower. If first oil is reached around the beginning of 2028, then the value has risen to £2.20 per share. When they are in full production (around 2033) the price could get near £4 per share.

All these prices include the dilution and exclude expansions like Isobel, new OM outcomes and other nice additions.

The tariffs for the FI are only 10%, which is the lowest possible rate. For a full list, check https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/further-modifying-the-reciprocal-tariff-rates/

LTT, it should be the average for the entire project based on an effective oil price of $67 bbp. From the NSAI report it shows that RKH will pay $4158.6 million in combined taxes and royalties for theit 35% stake. That's almost $11.88 billion for the entire Sealion project. The project should run for 33 years, which averages to $360 million per year or £266. This is very close to their £280 million, which you would already get if you use a slightly higher oil price

Hahaha, good one Dai! And just like they say to never sell Shell, we can say "Never drop hopper"

And if you like to see the maths for the $2 billion valuation, check out my post of the 6th of August 2025 13:34

Thank you for sharing Rogue Trader. My five cents are that you should update you valuation. The current NPV10 is around $2 billion instead of your $1.4 billion. That means that the upside potential is around 3x right now. On top of that, I agree with the comment of EG777 that the rest of the basin will increase in value too.

Another point is that the equity raise will not be a 1 on 1. Most of the shares are still currently held by private investors. Some say it will be 1 new share for every 50 you own.

Could it be possible that the insurer will get it's money back should a new case be started and won?

The current share price is already way better than I hoped for. At the beginning of the year £1 already seemed unimaginably wonderful to me. My one week after FID prediction was 60.5p, end of year 78.5p and first oil 153.5p. None of it has happened yet, but I'll be glad if I'm way off. Just like most, I'm very confident that FID will happen at the latest in November. What I do find difficult to guestimate is whether we will see a dip after FID or not. The new 53p shares and the 80p warrants could keep the share price down or it stays up/rises due to the reduced risk, new investors and media frenzy. Part of me thinks/hopes that the Israeli institutional investors won't go for a quick buck but will wait for first oil.