Member Info for JEBR

Space, I'm also happy to keep track of it. Here's the current list

Name, EOY-2025, FID (mid 2025), First Oil (Q4 2027)

r1234, 40,,

Market-Dealer, 58,,

digitalboy1, 58,,

tractorboy01, 69,,

CJ1986, 75,,

JEBR, 78.5, 60.5, 150

Kerching, 84,,

Gardie, 85,,

BuildersBum3, 89,,

Nastynick, 99,,

Neilius, 150, 100,

My 2024 end of year prediction was 60.5p assuming both OM and FID. I still expect the same for after FID and £1.50 on first oil with a steady rise between FID (mid 2025, so let's say first of July) and first oil (Q4 2027). On average that results in about 3p per month. This will bring my end of 2025 prediction to 60.5p + 6*3p = 78.5p.

It seems to me that it might be another small blow-off top, which is characterized by a large, sudden increase that strenghtens itself due to the fear of missing out. This is then followed by a sharp drop, and depending on the catalyst for the spike, it often stabilizes around halfway between the peak and the baseline level before the sudden rise. We saw the same at the end of November but more extreme. Yesterday was one of the biggest daily rises, so it wouldn't be weird to have a small correction today, ending around the 24.85p level. I still expect this to gradually move up during H1 2025, which also means that the FID itself might not have a huge impact on the share price because they are now slowly pricing it in.

Jock, the news that came out was not from RKH but from Navitas. On the 24th of November, the publiahed results that showed Sealion was bigger than previously thought and also strengthened the believe of Sealion actually being developed. The rise started after the 24th of November (and not the 9th of December like you suggested). Check my last posts for a transcript of one of their meetings from a few days ago that further positively influenced the share price. Finally you talk about low volume. Check out the volume of the last month and you'll see that it has been the highest in a long long time. Yesterday was over 11 million shares trades, which has only been surpassed when the OM decision was made public.

[part 3]

1. About Sea Lion FID date: As announced, we aim for a final investment decision around mid-2025.

2. Potential difficulties with Argentina (given the Falklands): We see a shift in Argentina’s political climate under President Milei, who is moving the country closer to the West. This includes a recently signed free-trade agreement between the UK and Argentina, and public statements by Argentina’s new foreign minister indicating they will no longer take hostile action against companies involved in Falklands development. Overall, the new climate is more constructive than previously.

We operate in a very systematic manner. The Falkland Islands are a recognized Overseas Territory, one of 13 such territories under the UK. They have their own self-government, self-determination, and they issue permits with UK guidance. The good news is that we recently had our licenses extended under the new UK administration, which fully supports the project.

3. Rockhopper: They are our 35% partner, listed on the London Stock Exchange, and were the original developer that drilled the wells in Sea Lion. Part of our agreement includes providing them with a loan for their share of the project costs, which they will repay from their production revenues. We work together, but Navitas is the operator, which is critical for scheduling and managing the project.

4. Further UK government approvals? Some items do require consultation with the UK, but day-to-day approvals are handled by the Falkland Islands Government (FIG). For instance, on taxation, import/export from the North Sea to the Falklands, etc., the FIG often adopts or adapts the UK framework. However, changes in tax laws in the Falklands are not currently on the table. This underscores why we want a stability clause from the FIG before moving forward with FID.

5. Why bring in another partner for Sea Lion? The project is maturing to a stage where bringing in a partner could make sense economically and strategically, but we must see if that partner brings added value. Navitas plans to remain the operator regardless. Nothing is decided yet; we keep all options open.

[part 2]

We are also exploring the possibility of bringing in an additional partner, though that’s not a necessity. As always, we keep our options open.

The development plan for Sea Lion, as described in our previously published DCF, comprises three phases (A, B, and C). Only 42% of Navitas’s total resources in Sea Lion are included in these three phases’ models. Navitas’s net share is 865 million barrels of oil equivalent (2P+2C overall), with a net present value of USD 2.6 billion for the portion included in the DCF.

If you look at global rankings (based on Wood Mackenzie data), Sea Lion ranks as the fourth-largest discovered-yet-undeveloped oil project globally that has reached this level of technical maturity. Having 65% working interest and operatorship in such a large resource is a major development for Navitas. It also brings the added strategic value of operating credentials. Operatorship puts us in control of timelines and capital budgets, letting us drive forward as we see fit.

[21:47]

Moving to Project Sea Lion—Navitas’s “next big thing.” We always keep looking ahead, seeking to leverage our successes (as we are doing with Shenandoah’s expansion) and bring the next major project online. This aligns with another key part of our strategy: managing the right timing between different assets.

For example, in Israel, we progressed sequentially: first Yam Tethys, then Tamar, then Leviathan—carefully pacing capital expenditures. Similarly here, we are doing the preparatory work on Sea Lion so it’s ready for an FID. But as stated previously, we won’t make a final investment decision on Sea Lion before seeing first oil from Shenandoah. This fits our timeline perfectly: Shenandoah’s first oil is planned for Q2 2025, and the intention is to potentially bring Sea Lion to FID in the second half of that year.

Meanwhile, we’re completing all the necessary preparation for this significant project. By way of background, 20 exploration, appraisal, and delineation wells have been drilled there, providing extensive data. Technically, it’s simpler to develop than Shenandoah. About USD 1.3 billion has already been invested historically. And as you recall, we received a small cash payment—about USD 6 million—when we entered the project.

In recent months we received in-principle approval from the Falkland Islands Government for our development plan, and we completed a very thorough Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process—critical in today’s ESG-conscious environment. We are currently focused on putting together the financing package for Phase A of Sea Lion development, as well as clarifying all regulatory matters with the local government, so that by the time we get to FID, everything is in place—especially the fiscal framework.

Might be a good moment to repost this.

According to Zeus capital RKH has a nett asset value (NAV) of:

- Core value: 22p

- Risked NAV: 53p

- Unrisked NAV: 212p

This means the share price should be at least 22p.

A conservative Estimate would only include a small part of the possibility of Sealion and OM, which would bring us at 25–30 pence.

A reasonable estimate would be around or just below the risked NAV, which would be 40–50 pence.

An optimistic estimate where we are pretty confident that everything will go according to plan would be a above the risked NAV and a bit closer to the unrisked NAV (in this case the risk of not developing Sealion is seen as small). In this case we should be around 70–100 pence.

Isobel has to my knowledge never been appraised. They believe it is of similar size or bigger than sealion, but no one knows. If things go the way they seem to be going, we will know we'll before the end of this decade. So the way I understand, the 900m barrels will come from Sealion alone

Seems like either Blue or passive might win. After today, there are two full trading days and two half trading days left for this year. No matter the outcome, Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all!

32 fecm

30 Fin147

28 SpaceHoppa

23 passive

22 BlueDefender

20 r1234

Well ... they wrote it in the PDF too. On page 13 it said: Continue to examine the possibility of introducing another partner to the project

Assuming RKG gets the full €65 million of tranche 2, which equates to roughly 8.5p per share, wouldn't it be worth more for RKH than just those 8.5p per share because it also means financing from RKH's side for Sealion has been sorted, thus decreasing the risks for Sealion being developed? If so, how much extra value should that add? Furthermore, does anyone think that part of this has already been priced in?

This should then mean that the FDP is approved. Another box has been ticked. Next step is financing and FID!

Solely relying on a translator, this is what I got from page 13 and 14:

-Use cash flow from Phase A to finance additional development phases.

The project will utilize a leased FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) unit, which will be upgraded and tailored to project needs.

- Pre-ordering of long-lead items such as Flexibles, Trees, and Wellheads has been initiated.

- Expected to achieve daily production capacity of up to 200,000 barrels of oil (in phased development).

- Reducing Capital Investments: The project divides the development into phases, allowing for reduced upfront capital investments.

- The Falkland Islands Government (FIG) has granted preliminary approval for the development plan.

- The use of a leased FPSO unit ensures that this capacity can be expanded for additional production phases to handle up to 200,000 barrels per day.

- Ongoing production during Phase A will provide valuable insights for improving design and operational efficiency in subsequent development phases.

- Future phases will be scheduled to align with optimized production capacity, ensuring that the field's full potential is realized.

Based on the picture on page 14:

- first oil in 2027 (50k), starting in the northern area This will increase to 120k in 2030 when including the central. 2031+ the southern is included, which brings production above 200k

Another great example of an AI not knowing how to make a simple calculation. The first mistake is that in your calculations the revenue of RKH is 35% of the total revenue but the costs all are for RKH. Furthermore, the costs are $24 per barrel, not $25. Then you forget about corporate tax and royalties.

Finally, they will first aim for 55k barrels per day.

Oil price: $70 per barrel

Royalty: 9% (is this of the revenue??)

Operating costs: $24 per barrel

Corporate tax: I believe it's 26%.

Calculate the royalty amount

Royalty = 9% of $70 = 0.09 × $70 = $6.30 per barrel

Revenue after royalty

Revenue after royalty = $70 - $6.30 = $63.70 per barrel

Pre-tax profit (after costs)

Subtract the operating costs of $24 per barrel:

Pre-tax profit = $63.70 - $24.00 = $39.70 per barrel

Apply corporate tax at 26%

Corporate tax = 26% of $39.70 = 0.26 × $39.70 ≈ $10.32 per barrel

Net profit after tax

Net profit = Pre-tax profit - Tax

Net profit = $39.70 - $10.32 ≈ $29.38 per barrel

$29.38 * (55000*0.35) * 300 days ≈ 170 million

Tranche 3 - Potential payment of 20% on recovery of amounts in excess of 200% of the Specialist Fund's total investment including costs.

This means that RKH will get part of the interest if the award is more than 2x€110 million plus costs of recovery of the award times. Assuming €260+ million and €5 million recovery costs, that will be 20% of €260-€230 = €6 million. It will be a nice bonus, but probably won't have a big effect on the share price. They main effect will be the immediate payout of €65 million from tranche 2

Good to see that it's stabilizing. Seems to indeed have been a blow-off top and not the pump and dump like chess seems to think.

It seems to me that it's a blow-off top, which is characterized by a large, sudden increase that strenghtens itself due to the fear of missing out. This is then followed by a sharp drop, and depending on the catalyst for the spike, it often stabilizes around halfway between the peak and the baseline level before the sudden rise. The baseline level was around 13.5p, the peak around 20.5p, so if I'm correct, it should stabalize around 17p. Time will tell if I'm correct.

The catalyst was probably the RNS from Navitas, which I see as a positive (besides the delay of FID with 6 months) because:

1. They again convirmed their intentions and hard word to get Sealion started

2. Sealion is bigger than previously thought

3. The plan for phase 3 is also included now, meaning that they want all of it developed

4. The EIS is pretty much finished without the need for additional public consultation.

5. It seems that the FPSO has been chosen, including the memorandum of understanding.

Navitas has a nice and steady increase of the share price, hitting one record after the other. RKH will probably stay (a bit) more volatile until the Finial Investment Decision, especially because RKH is hugely underrated and the success of the company depends on getting Sealion pumping oil.

We had six days in a row totalling about 36.5 million trades shares. They had trading volumes above 3 million a day with a peak of over 9 million shares traded and over 700 individual trades (where 1-2 million and 50-100 trades would be a normal day).

It seems like the RNS has sparked this interest and that the interest in RKH has now slowed down again. Looks like we can use such an RNS every week to keep up the interest

I wouldn't count on that ... Another reason why Italy is making this so difficult is to prevent others in similar situations to do something similar. If you know that it will take years to actually get a compensation including all the effort, it might scare some companies off. Furthermore the national dept of Italy is humongous. If they would have been a company, they would have been bankrupt