Member Info for JEBR

Chess, most posters here either have put you on filter or are just tired of your 'oh so subtle' deramping at the mentioning of the 'kids'.

Below are the end of year guesses of several posters, whom mostly assume that FID and OM have taken place.

I still think FID will take place in 2024 and for OM I'd still see it very likely that it either has been finalized or will be finalised before the end of January. OM should be good for 8.5p (spread out across the 1-2 months before completion), so that's 23p. EIS, FDP and FID should in my view at least double that. My EOY target is 46p at the bare minimum.

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In the month leading up to receiving the 15 million, RKH's share price rose 2p. Because this part was already priced into the share price, no real effect on the share price was seen on the moment the news came in. Similarly, I expect that the 65 million will slowly be priced in once the news starts that proceedings nearing its final phase starts to drip in.

Apologies for the typos... Shouldn't have written it on my phone

I checked out a few finished ICSID cases that had an annulment to see what the next steps are.

It seems that we will get 3 more updates:

- each party files a statement of cost

- the ad hoc committee declares the proceeding closed

- the ad hoc committee issues it's decision on annulment.

After the statement of costs it took between 6 weeks and 5 months for the next step. The final step is almost everytime roughly 1 month apart.

This means that it's at least 2.5 months to go until the costs are submitted. End of the year is still possible through. Especially because most cases I looked at ended at the end of the year.

My best guess would be that the annulment is completely end of December or a few days later.

High prices like above $100 per barrel can have some macro economic effects that could put the world into a recession, speed up carbon neutrality, incentive shale oil, etc. So prices like they are right now can actually be most beneficial in the long run

The way I, as a laymen, understand the market is that the price depends on demand and supply (plus some added complexity of market makers that are apparently there to add liquidity to the market). If there is someone or some organisation willing tk buy 250k shares for 13.9p now and it hasn't been fulfilled, then this is our lower bound price for as long as this order is still there. High volume unfulfilled orders to buy stock (the Bid side) drive the price up. Similarly the same on the Ask side drive the price down. The gap between ask and bid needs to be crossed for a trade to come through, so the first side to bridge that gap decides the direction the share price will go. Most of the times it ping pongs back and forth, which right now is somewhere between 13 and 15p and until recently was between 14.5 and 15.5p.

Concluding, having a large bid order creates temporary bottom price that can only drive prices up or at best keep them there, so it can be seen as a good sign. @TCM: It can be argued how long "a while" is, so if you see two weeks part of "a while" it isn't true. But I wouldn't insinuate that those two trades are related to the share price dropping a bit. It has been said several times that this drop was highly likely caused by a global unrest about a recession causing share prices around the world to drop.

The crucial part is; "for any costs not met by third party debt financing". I would be very much surprised if navitas will not raise funds through bonds on the Israeli stock market. They did this several times in the past with great success. The way I understand it (and I might be wrong) is that RKH only will need to be good for their 110 million share if no money is raised through the stock market.

That is ridiculous! They have over 20 million in cash now and will highly likely receive another 65 million soon. No need for en equity raise. Stop dreaming and spreading ungrounded statements

Yup. But nevertheless good to mention the EIS again. Yesterday they deadline for sending in comments has passed. Mogger shared an initial timeline a while ago. Because it seems like this has shifted by a week, the new timeline is probably something like this:

- 24 June 2024: Consultation start date

- 13 August 2024: Consultation closing date

- 14 August 2024: Start of follow-up period

- 11 September 2024: End of follow-up period

Nice way to deramp in a subtle way again TCM!

The (temporary) drop in the share price seems to be because of worries of a recession and worries around the instability in the middle east. There are just some worldwide events that effect all stocks. The COVID pandemic wasn't that pleasant for the RKH share price either. Still, €65 million in the bank (plus the 20+ million they now have) makes a huge difference.

The way I see it, the 15 million was already priced in during the weeks before the news came in, thus explaining little impact on the day the news came in. The 65 million that should come in once the OM results are announced, aren't priced in yet and should be worth 8.5p. I do expect either a gradual rise over the coming months or a bigger spike once the news comes in. On top of that are of course the developments around EIS (next Tuesday is the last day for comments), FDP and of course the one event we're all waiting for: FID.

So on OM alone, 20p should easily be possible.

For the record: I still believe in FID in 2024!

Everyone seems to panick now, but even with extremely low oil prices, Sealion can be profitable. Navitas will highly likely want to finance this on the Israeli market, which is used to wars and instability. And besides that, there's also the OM outcome. We are already hugely undervalued, so even when we enter a recession ... That too shall pass.

Https://www.falklands.gov.fk/mineralresources/regulatory/environment/environmental-impact-statement-navitas

On the website of the Falkland government it says the 13th

Market cap is one version of the present value but rarely represents the true value of a company. NPV and NAV are also versions of it. Zeus calculated the core NAV at 22p and the risked NAV at 48p. When comparing both with the current share price, RKH seems greatly undervalued.

With future values, all we can do is to calculate the value based on certain scenarios and each scenario has it's own chance of occuring. For me personally, it's insightful to know that the 65 million relates to 8.5p per share if OM has been won and the annulment is unsuccessful.

And to clarify, I don't mind if the kid in the backseat asks if we are almost there. I do mind if this kid is asking this every minute of the entire ride. Except for one or two posts in the last year or so, I haven't seen anything insightful from him, nor any new questions that I'm curious about myself.

Sure you can win. Just stop paying attention to every price fluctuation (both up and down) and instead contribute with meaningful thoughts, ideas and especially new findings. Mogger is great at finding stuff. Some others are great at calculating the present/future value based on certain scenarios. What are you great at that would be helpful/insightful for other shareholders?

You are correct that there are more trades today, but volume lacks behind.

I always thought these low volume trades were automated trades, either to test the market, to try to influence the price or just to keep some liquidity in the market, but that's just my guess... I'm not at all an expert on stock markets

The 250k trades are a mystery to me because it seems to be a negative and a positive one at the same time. Almost like its canceling itself out. Anyone know what this is?

"There's certainly more trading than normal": doesn't seem like it to me. Volume seems to stay below a million today, which isn't that much.

And you keep talking about these uni/college kids... Seems to be based on nothing whatsoever, but maybe I'm too old to hear the word on the street among these youngsters.

My personal theory to explain the low volumes is that the people aware of RKH are holding and are fully loaded up (i.e., put more into RKH than what professional investors would advise ... I definitely did so)

Like always, nice find Mogger. Thank you. I especially like this part:

"Navitas workplans have evolved and been delayed from initial timeline. FIG oil readiness continuing regardless of Navitas delays. Key priorities for FDP completed, EIS currently out for public consultation, FID are expected FY Q2 2024/25."

FID is expected Q2 of the Fiscal Year 2024/2025, which means October-December this year. And the mention of the Key priorities for FDP completed is in line with what Sam mentioned that it's pretty much finished.

In their report the mentioned

Core NAV 22p

Total Risked NAV 48p

Total Unrisked NAV 189p

If OM arbitration has been won and FID is done, a large part of the risks have been taken care off

Hahahaha, brilliant. That made me laugh. But keep in mind, I'll keep my shares too so you'll have to share those dividends.