Member Info for JEBR

I remember that RKH was still looking into the taxation part of the OM award. They'll probably wait with sharing this information once the annulment procedure is completed. Nevertheless, does anyone have a good guestimates on likely ways/percentages of taxation?

The word 'million' was missing. So every month we have to wait longer, Italy needs to pay €1.5 million extra (or 1.3 million GBP). There are now 586 million stocks in play, which equals 0.22 GBX per share (1.3/586). Assuming interest is directly effecting the share price (which it isn't), next months share price would be equal to today's share price of 9.28 GBX + the interest of 0.22 GBX = 9.50 GBX. For an entire year, it would add around 2.5 GBX ... and that is just the added interest of one year.

When we use the daily 12 month euribor interest rate + 4%, assume that the interest rate in the weekends is the same as the Friday before that, account for leap years and apply it on the award of €190 million from the 29th of January 2016, we get:
2016-01-29 award = €190 000 000
2017-01-01 award = €196 935 917
2018-01-01 award = €204 526 687
2019-01-01 award = €212 354 748
2020-01-01 award = €220 389 148
2021-01-01 award = €228 535 025
2022-01-01 award = €236 555 457
2023-01-01 award = €248 609 975
2023-01-27 award = €249 865 811

With the current interest rate, the award will grow with approximately €1.5 per month, which is about 0.22 GBX per share.

The Euribor interest rates are based on the average interest rates of multiple banks and range from one week to one year. All rates are adjusted every day. The compound interest rate of a week translated to a year should be more than just the interest rate of a year (although I haven't checked this).

Maybe a stupid question, but what does that mean/entail?

Godders, can you explain how you got to that 18m?

Anyone know when the half year results are due? Normally it's at the end of September

The transaction has been completed and it has been done in line with the timeframe mentioned (in Q3). With Navitas as an operator, I hope/think it will become normal to be punctual or even ahead of schedule. They seem to be realists in what they promise and how they plan!

It's been a while since I calculated some scenarios and right now would be a good time for an update. Assuming Sealion will be produced, the updated assumptions & facts are:
Total costs Sealion = $1 billion (RKH share = $350 Millon)
Non-funded part = 1/3 * 350 = $117 million (2/3 = interest free loan = $233 million)
Yearly operating costs = $4 million
Years to first oil = 4
Current cash = $13 million
Nett OM award = $198.4 million + $0.75 million interest per month. (today €1.00 =$1.00)
Shares in issue 580,317,053 + 60,917,237 = 641,234,290
Mean daily production = 30-51.000 barrels per day (RKH share = 10-17.000)
Costs per barrel = $40-50 costs
Oil price = $60-100
Profit per barrel = $10-60
Profit per year = $36-365 million

Low case scenario ($60 oil, costs p/b $50, 30k production)
RKH would have a profit of $36,5 million per year, 640 million shares and a loan of $140 million. Assuming a profit to company ratio of 1:10, it would be worth (365-140)/640=225/640=$0.35 per share or £0.30 per share.

Medium scenario ($75 oil, cost p/b $45, 45k production)
RKH would have a profit of $164 million per year, 640 million shares and a loan of $140 million. Assuming a profit to company ratio of 1:10, it would be worth (1640-140)/640=1500/640=$2.34 per share or £1.97

Great scenario ($100 oil, cost p/b $40, 60k production)
RKH would have a profit of $365 million per year, 640 million shares and a loan of $140 million. Assuming a profit to company ratio of 1:10, it would be worth (3650-140)/640=3510/640=$5.48 per share or £4.61 per share.

And this is of course only for phase 1!

The SP is hovering around 9p because there hasn't been any news and the warrants stop it from rising above 9p.
The thing about "corrupt" Italian politicians is a non-argument because the arbitration is not dealing with them. The lawyers are equally balanced between the Italian government and Harbour litigation. Sam and Harbour litigation want to win this case badly, but can't do more other than asking why the deadline hasn't been made.

The case takes so long partly because this will be the example of many to follow so they want to be 100% sure everything is done correctly. It's partly taking so long because Italy tried everything to delay it. The good news is that there is no delay possible after the 22nd of October, which means an RNS at the 23rs of October at the latest.

Right now Harbour litigation is trying to figure out why the 120 days haven't been met, which means an RNS will come soon. I would be really surprised if it's not here at the end of the week.

At the same time Sam and Navitas are working hard to get the oil out of the ground asap. In Q3 we will get a new update on it where the transaction should be completed.

So please stop the deramping based on non-arguments for whatever strange motivation you might have and start looking at the facts!

@MANJUKWAI: this doesn't have to be the case. The only thing they need is to make money and win enough that they will get the big cases. If they would win 50% of the cases, it means they will have to earn twice the cost to break even. Nevertheless, I suspect that they only taking cases that they expect to win in at least 70-80% of the times. In my opinion, RKH is very likely to win both the initial costs plus some lost profits, which is based on the question: Would it have taken this long if they would have lost or only got a compensation of the building costs?

I expect that no consensus is reached and then it can be wise (politically speaking) to wait until the deadline. This way you can say you tried all you can do to find the best solution and this is the end result. Especially because there is so much at stake, this is probably the smartest thing ... So... Few more days to wait

My broker just called and arranged it for me.

Does anyone know how it works with the warrants? Do we have to pay these upfront? Or is the option to buy it for 9p already included by buying the new shares?

Can someone explain in laymen terms what the equity raise will mean? For instance, if I have 1000 shares right now, what will my options be concerning
- the placing and proposed subscription,
- the warrants
- the open offer.
And what will be the amount I'm allowed to buy per option?

@pre2rcd: The link below might work. Otherwise you can go to archive.is then put the link in there and it sometimes bypasses the subscription blocker

https://archive.ph/P7knM

I voted against number 8:
TO APPROVE THE DISAPPLICATION OF SHAREHOLDER PRE-EMPTION RIGHTS

The meaning of Shareholder Pre-emption Rights is:
Rights for existing shareholders to have first refusal on the issue of new shares by a company. These rights are deemed to be necessary to protect shareholders against dilution of their shareholdings.

If you are an existing Shareholder who wants to protect against the Dilution of your shareholding, you may want to Vote Against the above Proposal in the AGM.

There is nothing positive about this for shareholders, so I hope we all vote against it

"The market is rarely wrong"

Interesting statement. With 'wrong' I assume you mean that it reflects the value of the company including possible developments, like the potential development of Sealion.

I actually believe the opposite is more likely to be true: "The market is rarely right". In my opinion the market is often either an overestimate or an underestimate of the true value. Only really big stable companies come close to it, but AIM stocks don't even come close.

The true value is something we can only know for sure retrospectively and for the rest it's a guessing game. Furthermore risks often weigh heavy on the stock price. For example, if there would be a 50% chance of a company being worth 1 billion and a 50% chance that it's worth nothing at all, than the true value should be 500 million. On the other hand, the value according to the share price could be way lower because "the market" doesn't like risk.

Finally, the RKH share price is a bit peculiar because most long term holders reached their personal limit of what they want to buy due to the long wait. This means that there is limited trading going on and it can pretty easily go down. For it to move up, we need renewed interest of other share holders, which only comes with some positive news. And then, if we hold (most of) our shares, it will create a shortage which would let this share fly.

I've waited years to finally see this fly and in my opinion the cards look ideal right now.

I (automatically) checked through all the previous arbitration cases and purely based on previous cases, it will be likely that the award will be published in the next few weeks.

48% of all awards have been assigned in 30 days or less.
67% has been assigned in 45 days or less (June, 9th)
79% has been assigned in 60 days or less (June, 24th)
88% has been assigned in 90 days or less (July, 24th)
95% has been assigned in 120 days or less (August, 23th)

Maybe old news ... The nett present value (NPV 10) at the moment of first oil was estimated at more than $5 billion with oil at $75. This was based on the old plans for only phase 1. That's $1.75 billion for RKH share. Downscale it by about 1/3 for the smaller project, it's $1.2 billion.

Best case scenario OM will cover all costs, so this will represent roughly $2.60 per share.
In the case of a fundraising (10-20% dilution to get to sanction + $150 million), we get roughly a share price of around $1.90 per share.

A positive OM result would make RKH's position a lot stronger, but as long as they get to first oil, it doesn't matter (that) much. Especially considering phase 2 and all the other future possibilities with Isobel.

FID in 2023/2024 and sanctions beginning of 2024. For once, I believe these are realistic or that it can even speed up. Navitas was really quick with the report on the new valuation of sea lion. They seem to want to get this started as soon as possible

42k! I would like to see that buy tomorrow morning