Member Info for jamesjohn

Copper currently highest since June last year!

Unfortunately for some reason, I don't seem to have the time like you guys to post much.
I have had a quick look through your post Sandy, and if I'm not mistaken you appear to be using figures quoted from the 20121 mining plan, for example you are quoting approx 6000t of concentrate for 2021, which includes lead and zinc. We were told by AP to ignore this plan. I think It was also stated in a Q&A that a new forecast and mining plan would be issued once we have a stable production level.

Back to work I'm afraid.

Sorry, it was posted before I had time to finish. should have ended as follows....
I'm happy to be corrected.

I've done some number crunching myself.
Let us assume that we are about to run out of money as of this month, however we don't know that for sure, as many assumptions are being made.
In the month of September we mined just short of 8000t, let's say we do 8000t in Jan, bearing in mind the second mantis drill should be almost complete with doing development work, they could do more. Based on the previous Q this should generate about 210t of copper concentrate. We also have about 230t of inventory. So therefore a total of 440t. If we were to ship 300 t in the month of Jan with grades of say 25%, using current copper prices of $8350/t that would give us approx $630k, This does not include any other metals or revenue stream, surely there has to be something, I'm going to be mean and give us $20k, therefore round up to $650k
Running costs maybe less, at say $700-750/m, so we would be almost at breakeven. We would only need approx $75k or £60k. The point being we are getting closer and production could ramp up much more once we employ the second mantis drill, there is also still more inventory that can be used while we wait for ramp-up . Not to mention copper prices may rise too in the coming months, yes they could fall also.
Anyway I'm going to relax and watch tv, then bed. I'm up at 5.15 tomorrow. I'm sure posters will pick holes with what I've said, but if I've made some incorrect calculations, I.

Just had a chance to listen to the podcast. It seems that AP is still saying that the mine could be profitable by the end of this quarter, although I would guess it is more likely to slip into Q2. He also mentions that he doesn't like to give forecasts, so that is a hint that it may go into Q2.
Those comments however are welcomed, because it suggests that breakeven could be just around the corner ie Feb/Mar.
How he calculates this I don't know, because we don't have enough to go on, but we should find out this Q1.

Radika... Sorry, I've been busy.

What I meant by YOUR being the operative word, is that you alone should decide on whether or not to average down, based on YOUR research. Do not listen to what I say or anyone else on here says.
Operative can sometimes be used in place of the word important or significant.

asimpleinvestor... I agree with a lot of what you have said, although I didn't understand the part concerning a third of their quoted break-even point, but unfortunately I don't have the time to make many exchanges as I have to work.
The part I disagree, is the financing. I believe this will be re-negotiated. You say they will not be able to renew based on current production and they can't provide accurate forecasts to have any chance at all. Remember, they did get this deal done in the first place on far less data than they have now, and we have a much improved set of figures.
However, as I say, I don't have enough time to comment further, so we will see who is right and who is wrong over the coming months.

Radika.... Good luck with your decision, YOUR being the operative word.

Yesterdays RNS showed the business is improving quarter on quarter, through-out 2022. My only negative is the rate of increase, I was hopping for bigger increases in production. However grading is also improving and a bonus was the amount of copper concentrate from the amount mined. The mine appears to be at it's best position ever, or at least since I've been following, and that is a few years. On the other hand the share price is at it's lowest.
Placings are par for the course with most AIM mine stocks I'm afraid, but we are going in the right direction at long last. The next Q1 2023 will be the indicator in my view, whether we transition to break-even and then cash-flow positive.

Copper concentrate produced from mined ore has gone up from an average of 2.1% to 2.9% which is also good.

I was hoping they would update their Twitter page.

Still no confirmation of the December shipment.

I'm still trying to understand why AP would say, back in October, that they would breakeven at approx 8000t/mnth, .
Either one of the following options maybe the reason for his prediction.

1) The cost of running the mine is far less than the $1 mil most shareholders believe it to be.
2) The other metals plus the Tajikistan revenue will add up to more than the copper revenue.
3) AP is using the figures quoted from the original 2021 mining plan .
If you look at option 3, in that plan they said that for every 10000t of mined ore they would produce approx 400-500t of copper concentrate. However if you look at the last 12 months, 10000t has given approx 200t of copper concentrate.

The grading seems reasonable, it just appears to be the stage between the the ore and the concentrate is the problem, bearing in mind the maximum they can mine is 14000-16000t/mnth. If there is anyone out there who has a better understanding of this please let us know. I would send them an e-mail, but in the past they have never responded. It would be good if AP could do a new mining plan with a breakdown of costs , other metals etc.

Fantasy....Harry Adams has also promised and said many things, but not delivered. Yet you are are still invested, funny that.
At least AP has a functioning mine and for the past 12 months has increased production every quarter.
I should be working, but I had to post because of your hypocrisy.

Sandy....Tbf I don't recall him saying that, at least not in that short space of time. I can only base my decisions on what the company says, and he did say 8000t/month would be break-even, and I think he said it as early as October.

Sandy... I'm not saying your wrong, because we don't have the numbers to be able to say for sure. However AP did say in his last interview that we would need to mine 8000t/month to reach break-even. According to todays update we should increase production by 30% at the end of this month. Therefore going on last quarters 15,000t that should bring us to approx 20,000t/quarter, which equates to approx 6500t/month. That would suggest we need to increase the production by 23% plus to reach profitabilty, which seems reasonable. Then again I maybe wrong.

Only 4-5 weeks to go before the production report. If what was said in the meeting is correct and going by the last report we had, then the next set of figures should show a massive increase in production and therefore a large increase in revenue compared to previous figures. This should attract new investors and traders, and hopefully as a result a substantial rise in the share price. If there is also a hint of being cash-flow positive in Q1 2023, then this could keep any rise in price more sustained.
Let's hope so anyway!
I agree with regards to the Remin mine, not needed at the moment, unless we can gain some short -term cash-flow without any need for dilution, similar to Tajikistan would be ok.

I would guess that it is the placing shares from the end of October, could be clear now, or very soon.

Thank you!

Does anyone know when the PFS is due, and why it has been delayed for so long?