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I personally don.t think the diamond news is currently priced in. Firstly the share price had an intra day high of approx 1.2p on the day the court order was given, but it slowly dropped back when it became apparent that we were still not in possession of the diamonds. Secondly we don't know what the value of the diamonds are. Thirdly we have moved on in the BP production numbers and development since February. So all in all if we are told that diamonds are now in our possession the share price should in theory rise to at least 1p, then it is just calculating the value of the diamonds in respect to our current financial position.
There is one other factor which could cause the sp to rise to a much greater level, and that is whether AP mentions the possibility of a JV. I myself think this may come much later, and it is possible that as part of the amicable agreement with the government, some of the funds from the sale of the diamonds may be required before the JV is signed.
In reality most lenders will always try to avoid the hardball approach, so us going into positive cash flow, was going to make the re-negotiated route the most likely.. However you are correct that the more the company has on it's side the better, so better to be prepared, absolutely.
Even before we won the court order, the debt was always more likely to be re-negotiated. We are now closing in on break-even and hopefully this week we will be informed that the mine will return a profit in Q2. This is the best situation we have been in for many years, and this year we may be talking about expanding the mine and possibly another project.
Yes the process will probably involve different departments of government, and even though we think we should have priority, we probably don't. We may be sitting in someone's in-tray below a mountain of paper-work. I also doubt that AP has a hot-line to the Zimbabwe Government. We will just have to wait our turn!
Update on results will most likely arrive next week, Monday could be the most likely day. This could bring in new investors and give us a clear picture of the year ahead. He usually does an interview not long afterwards, so I expect we may get more information on the diamond progress. Could be a busy week!
Good chance the Q1 results will be announced next week. If the previous interviews are anything to go by we should see an improved set of results, hopefully breakeven. Also an indication of a maiden profit for the mine in Q2, would be nice. That should be of great interest to new investors! An interview sometimes follows and therefore we may also get a progress report on the diamonds.
We should receive the Q1 figures, let's say 03 April, so not long, just under 3 weeks to go.
Thinking back to before the diamond news was announced, many posters on here were hinting that the BP mine would not make break-even in the first quarter, even I had some doubts. So it will be very interesting to see what we achieve. If we do reach this target and there is an indication that we will be cash-flow positive in the second quarter there is a good chance we should gain interest from new investors and hopefully an uplift in the share price. However, should positive diamond news arrive just before or during this time then this will probably over ride the Q1 news. Could be a very interesting March/April.
Sandy... credit where credit is due, you did. However I think despite all the progress in the BP production in the last 12 months, none of us could have anticipated the Diamond result, AP certainly kept that one hidden.
Before I go off to work. thought I'd post this comment.
I read an article recently that was dated June 2022. It was an interview with AP with regards to its mining operations in Zimbabwe. I don't remember hearing about it at the time, and not sure how true or accurate it was, but It seemed to suggest that the JV was close to finalizing and they were in discussions with various stakeholders, and that these discussions were in line with previous expectations., apart from the timing. 6 months later the High Court awards in our favour, so maybe we are going to be told something within the next few months.
As far as I remember that is old news. I would imagine that some discussions will take place once the diamonds are returned and valued officially. The JV between ourselves and the ZCDC is at the time when I started following this share, but the signing never happened, probably in part due to this dispute regarding the diamond package.
Q1 could be very interesting, we may move to between 20000 and 240000 tonnes mined. Bearing in mind AP said 8000t/mnth. (24kt/Qrt) would achieve break-even for the mine. Whether this is true or whether it happens, time will tell, but AP does seem confident.
Regardless of the Zimbabwe reputation, the High Court has just awarded in our favour after more than a decade. Also it's unlikely that Vast and it's legal team would have taken this on in December, without having a detailed understanding of what the contents of this package are.
As someone who has been following this share for a few years, I feel at long last we are not just turning a corner, but we have turned that corner and now we have possibly an open road ahead of us. Even a small diamond valuation will deliver a big change to our prospects. Apart from the obvious, debt clearance, if there is any funds remaining this will bring many more options. Just one example is the possibility of purchasing the XRT machine which was said would improve the efficiency of the mine and therefore profitability. Another possibility is the Manaila mine, I doubt it would take too much money to bring this back into production. There could be new JV partners who may be more interested now we are on the verge of cash in the bank, together with the improvement in the BP mine. The options could be many. The placing that many feared is out of the way, and importantly it happened at more than double the last price, which makes a change.
The majority of us who have been here for some years had given up on the diamonds, so this has become a bonus to add to the progress we have made in 2022.
Lot's hopefully for VAST to look forward to, including the release of the Diamonds, plus valuation and the results of Q1 2023.
I've been here for a few years now, and had given up on Zimbabwe, so this is just a bonus.
In my view we should either win outright tomorrow or at least come to some compromise. Either way we will have gained more than we had before 23 Jan/23. I've been focused on the BP mine and the increased production that has been achieved quarter on quarter. It's important to remember that we could be cash flow positive within the next few months.
Of course this is a very positive distraction and it can't be denied that if we gain from this it could out-play the BP mine
very easily, and that's why it's hard to ignore. However if tomorrow doesn't work -out the way we want, it needs to be said that the market cap will still be very low and that the BP mine is close to proving itself a winner.
You need to remember those figures are for the period when we had a problem with shipment, together with a lower copper price. Two shipments went out in November, and since then we have increased production. So the interims are not a true reflection of what is happening right now, plus we have a large inventory.
As for the court case, I don't have legal knowledge, but it mentions unopposed motion, this sounds promising.