Member Info for itisagame

If Gary leaves it to last minute and results are on Tuesday, then notice of results will probably be tomorrow, Thursday at a push, normally a 4 or 5 working day window of notice.

(If I continue to guess daily I’ll be right one day. )

Spot on LTH.

JB wanted to move cash to PLC level then do something like aggressively buy back bonds while they were trading at a deep discount or use it elsewhere, but the old management didnt do this, and by the time the FCA put the VREQs in it was too late as the cash was effectively locked in the subsidiary.

catch 22 on the SOA is by linking it to future profits Amigo need to be in a position where they have enough cash available to provide new loans. the only way to get around this is to get new financing facilities linked to new lending at the subsidiary level or somehow have a ton of new cash available at the PLC level ( a new bond / loan to PLC or capital raise)

Its the forward looking statements that need adjusting, nothing they do to the results now will change the numbers in them for a period that ended 5 months ago.

They do however have alot of work to do on the Q1 results (technically due around end of August)
and H1 results period ends 30th September (technically due around end of November)

This is why they need more hands on deck, there have also been delays in the whole accounting industry caused from the overhang of covid, furlough etc etc, so delays and higher workloads have been common and expected.

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28/7/2021
"Amigo Holdings PLC (LSE: AMGO), a leading provider of guarantor loans in the UK, provides an update on correspondence received today from the Financial Conduct Authority ('FCA') in relation to Amigo's plans to seek approval for a new Scheme of Arrangement to deal with current and potential redress creditors (the 'Scheme'). The letter **raised some issues which 'could' impact on forward looking statements** contained within the annual report covering the results for the year ended 31 March 2021. "
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the next point, the bondholder notice rns 4/8/2021 was simply to counter any idea of bondholders forgiving an automatic event of default if the company failed to release the results within 30 days which was mentioned in the previous RNS.

28/7/2021
"The breach is not an automatic event of default and is remediable by the publication of the annual results, within a 30 day grace period after notification by the Trustee of the Notes or by holders of 25% of the principal amount of the outstanding Notes."

With all that in mind My money is still on a scheme being approved, might be another £10m put in to it initially (funded partly by a tax rebate due for losses incurred last year)

Lending to recommence under old business product at 49.9% for new business up to £100m loan book before a reevaluation of facilities which may then extend the new loan book.

Business will be all new originations, no one will get a top up loan they will have to had cleared all past debts, I have some doubts on the eligibility of consolidation loans but hope they can play a roll as they can really help people get off much higher rates with competitors.

In the mean time Gary can work on the new discounted product range but I have my doubts on its feasibility from the little information learned from that one single article the other week. If amigo offers a new loan to a past customer who has paid up in full in time every month I can see this working, but discounting a single loan along the repayment term I cannot see.

I have my hopes still and would love nothing more then to see it all resolved and every make, recover and earn lots of money from it.

Worse case If they can wind up ALL or sell loan book to clear debts the plc still has an operating business in Ireland, completely different market and much smaller I know but potentially all will not be lost.

Any system developed for 2.0 will not go to waste and can be put in place for Ireland and then when the time comes roll out to the UK under amigo loans 2.0 ltd.

Alternatively amigo sell the loan book for enough to cover the remaining needed to repay bonds plus early redemption fees plus other outstanding bills. And claimants get nothing.

The can’t offer more money because it is not there, the loan book is dwindling every day, by my calcs it’s at about £220m net now, and will be basically £0 in 12-15 months.

The interest earned from that at 49.9% over the year will be approx £65m

£65m + £220m +£180m current cash, total possible income from existing company £465m. ( it will be less as not everyone will repay their loan, so deduct a low ball 20% as impairments so ~£420m)

Then
Deduct £234m for bonds.
Deduct ~£41m for bond interest.
Deduct £15m FOS fees
Deduct £15m for solicitors fees
Deduct £40m operating expenses

Left with £75m.
Allocate £15m to all scheme.

That Leaves £60m IF everyone with a loan pays interest on remaining loan payments.

And on top now they have to run the company, start a new business, grow a new loan book.

A few delays, extra impairments, extra admin costs and they will struggle to keep the lights on for a year without restarting
Lending (funded by new facilities)

So potentially £50m, what’s the point in keeping amigo loans ltd with exposure to past issues.

They start amigo 2.0 ltd, separate company, if they don’t they won’t be able to obtain new borrowing at reasonable rates and the whole model doesn’t work. Then their is no 15% of future profits.

The kitty is dry. It really is, believe Gary and PWC when they say things are tight.

they are at ~£200m with £10-15m coming in each month, bonds are £234m. A short extension to the claims payment waiver would ensure that the bonds can be repaid in full and then all income in excess of running costs can be put towards claims until the loan book is wound down.

With a waiver extension in place everyone can calm down, take their time, make the right decisions with no pressure.

Because ... In the mean time.... Gary and team can then work on Amigo 2.0 Ltd, arrange separate funding, get it all together, amigo lives another day.

They had a good spread apparently.

Everyone forgets it’s reverse Opposite Day when trading amigo. X

it was just a flyby comment in an old interview, Gary mentioned full commitments and that he wasnt going to give up, he knows the game they are playing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

X

Future Share price is theoretical and speculative, it should never have played a role in the decisions the FCA.

Amigos Secured debts = more than available cash, if called in there is no cash for claims. Fact.

Each month they are wasting ever dwindling resources, with the FCA not giving a straight answer to the entire industry and the longer they drag it out the less claimants stand to gain across the board for all companies.

Try over a decade, it’s click bait for subscriptions.

Ronalds 78 and could have sold at 20p if wrong doing was the motive, they called it wrong on a high risk drill, it happens, let the guy secure his retirement funds and move on.

Any + news and this moves up.

Next Friday
"In addition, in the event the resolutions to be put to the General Meeting are passed, the Admission Date for the New Ordinary Shares is now expected to be on 23 July 2021."

Once done with cash in bank i expect it will be back to above 3p in no time, prob Aug / Sept.

My simple plan, buy tons at 2p - aim to take my stake out and derisk at 3~4p by letting a trailing stop decide exactly when to take me out as upward momentum wanes, then leave a small free ride long term and see if it can reach previous mcap highs and move on to the next big dipper.

My Very Basic bounce target estimate
Company Mcap before raise £12m
cash raised £11m - cash in a listed company normally trades at 2x its value
Target £34m mcap / 3.77p share (900m shares)
any +RNS will be a bonus.

Not worried about the history, only aimed to be a short term trade for me.

Can Europe reach their legally binding CO2 reductions by 2030 and onwards without new sources of fuel?

It’s a slow burner for sure, but I still expect a change of plan from liquidation down the line, a then clean aim listed shell is worth a mil or two of enlarged equity these days. Just need to buy back / convert or settle the preference shares and anything could happen to this listing, it would definitely return shareholders / stakeholders greater value over the current plan.

plus it still has some cash and assets on the book.

A Highly speculative and risky trade but it just takes one rns indicating a change of direction and it’s game on.

The administrators will be getting double pay here, give it a week and Icon can send the administrators back to DS for that £1m :)

The new board are far from stupid, they have kept the company alive for one, and are negotiating with the regulator alongside everyone else in the industry.

They need to keep mentioning insolvency because the risk is TRUE (and other companies are in the same boat

End of the day Amigo loans limited survival literally comes down to two FCA decisions.
- How much it’s going to cost to resolve the past claims
- If they can lend again and on what terms

Amigo loans ltd can only generate the cash needed to pay ‘everything’ if a SOA is approved.

I’m intrigued to see how PFGs process Works out, they are just closing down the division, something amigo had the option to do but chose to “do the right thing for customers” which has so far been a far more costly decision for the company and shareholders.

NSF put it as clear as day in the last rns, and this is how the entire market really is.
if the FCA decisions are terrible then the industry is not viable and lenders will not provide future funding.

NSF - “This equity raise is dependent on reaching a conclusion to the discussions with the FCA regarding the proposed redress methodology for certain customers of the Group's Guarantor Loans Division.”

You cannot run a business with barely no historic problems and then have the FCA change and backdate their advise so every loan is a problem and expect companies to refund most of their revenue (plus interest) for past years and expect the market to function.

There is a path to £1, but the risk of falling off to 0p or heavily diluted equity is real and why we can buy at a fraction of what the potential share price is.

Now September is the big month that potentially decides the future.

Fingers crossed...

Oops that should have said “Securitisation facility update this week..”
(But who really knows, SOA update could be around any corner too)

If there is a placing the share price will rerate within a week, just like rr., aml, countless others. Reason why - It’s dirt cheap, cash raised will be used with purpose (new lending, bond repurchase, resolve claims)

Soa update this week, boom time cometh.
Trade it, flip it, make a few bucks, generate a free hold trade, add to existing lth, whatever just use the opportunity to your benefit, don’t waste it :)