Member Info for Invest2save

Ginger: no - he/she must have taken inspiration from my tag and copied me!

Why not comment on my actual post instead of focusing on something as irrelevant as my tag name? and then to imply that me and F2F are the same person - get a grip and stop distracting from my very valid point

Like i said i'm invested and not a de-ramper.

Both sides are as bad as each other here from what i've see n - lots of ramping and de-ramping going on in equal measure. Trust nobody.

Where does it say that Sibanye were interested in acquiring EUA? I dont believe they were looking at buying is. Might be wrong but thats my opinion based on what i've read and watched.

So let be balanced and try not to connect the two (i.e. they were priced out of EUA and this now means we will go for more than $5b etc. wtf!)

Im heavily invested and got in fairly late. But there is a limit to how much ramping should go on.

Thanks Mac - very informative and exactly in line with my thoughts.

I've only considered the 15Moz figure in my valuations, with the remining 25Moz (7Moz+17.7Moz) an opportunity for any buyer which might influence the price, but not by much. More likely it will be used as a negotiation lever to get the best deal for the 15Moz + WK.

For me, i'm still looking at a circa $5b takeover for the 15Moz and WK - SP target for £120-£150

Do you have a valuation and SP that you have in mind Mac?

no stress @Stix40 - not my style

But i do like to consider all angles, and everyone here is always backing up valuations with simple maths.

Whereas i think the below is that grey area that many struggle to agree on. Was curious to hear peoples views is all.

Firm believer that we will sell, and hopefully quite soon. That's why i'm still invested, if in doubt then you are free to sell up.

My question is around valuation, and particularly aimed at folk like Mac who IMO are more knowledgeable here - the recent articles by proactive investors and the fools keep sticking with this 2Moz figure for MT but exclude:

A - 13.3Moz in the flanks license approved area (bringing the total to 15Moz)
B - 7Moz in the exclusivity target resource (within 5km of MT)

A & B above brings the total target resource in licensed area to 22.6Moz
C - Further potential of 17.7Moz in established and unlicensed reserves in Monchegorsk (8km from MT)

Brining the total target resource to 40.3Moz

Questions:
1. Do you think a buyer is paying us for all of the above (A, B & C) alongside the 2.2Moz?
2. How do you value A, B & C in a sale scenario? Same value as the 2.2Moz or less because its just a license?
3. Do you think a buyer would pay us for C? even though its not licensed yet (risk being, why would anyone pay us for something we dont have a license for?)
4. What do you think West Kytlim is worth and will it be part of the sale?

i use a couple, but purchased those via IWeb

@gotitwrongagain - bought at 30.5

Well i topped up around 30 again. Why not eh

Its clear we are in an offer period and not far from the finish line and I dont mind locking away my investment for the next weeks or months if required.

Anything above 40p and I've made a considerable profit (of course i'm expecting somewhere closer to £1.50 though)

Even using the modest 15Moz target resource figure and doing a basic multiplication you get a number much higher than what Sibanye paid for Stillwater back in 2016 when the price of palladium was a quarter of what it is today!

I cant see a scenario where this will go for less than the $2.2b Sibanye paid. Add to that the rise in palladium price since that deal (its 4 times higher), the palladium supply deficit + the potential in the wider monchegorsky district (bringing total to 40Moz) + it being an open pit (easier extraction and less cost) = DO THE MATHS

My very conservative price is a $3.5b deal = approx 90p SP
What i'd like to see is a $5b deal = about £1.25 SP
Anything north of $5b feels unlikely to me but you never know, especially if this a bidding war

In the scenario (unlikely imo) that this plays out as a takeover, what does that mean for the SP in your opinion?

so much time is wasted on this board repeating the same old garbage. I've went from coming on here a few times a day to once a day now. Not getting anything meaningful other than debates around how much its worth, how people are going to spend money they've yet to make and people de-ramping because they missed the boat etc.

If you are invested here, then it should be for the sale of EUA. If not and you are nervous due to SP movements, then i'd question whether you researched the share in the first place and are here for the right reasons, or dont believe in opportunity or have invested more than you can afford to lose.

If you are worried, sell up and move on - leave this share for those who know what they've bought, and have done the research before buying (and i dont just mean read this board and google basics).

Spend the time saved looking at other opportunities

Im glad i took the decision not to day trade results, selling on results was the right play here.
Buy on the dips guy, when everyone else is panicking and selling, that's when you should buy :)
So I'll be buying big on ASOS quite soon, can see this going back up over next few weeks.

just an accumulation going on, they will sell these shares back to others at a higher price in coming days - which will raise the SP.

Just hold, you should be invested now for the sale, so SP movement is irrelevant - for me anyway

is this a buy on news and sell on results or do folk see a rise tomorrow?
AIM is funny and was thinking of doing a day trade between today/tomorrow.
Thoughts?

Really like holding but day trading this is fun, got in a 8.20 and just lining up my exit.
But have not touched my core holding as i see much much much more upside

Came to this party very late last week, but already made a tidy profit.
Done considerable research over the weekend and agree that this will above £10 in the short term, with significantly higher gains in coming months

I topped up just now whilst its a little lower

For what its worth ferg.gg - i think you read it absolutely wrong, i really dont believe it was implying that 'they dont know the reason for the rise' - read it again with the context of the interim results RNS - i'm not sure how you could have jumped to that conclusion.

Dont take that as an attack please.

Thanks to those who sold this morning, i swept up another £30k at 30.5 from my day trading pot and cashed out at nearly a 20% profit in my ISA. Not bad for 1 hour of work.

Keeping my long term holding in tact, wont be touching that.

With the RNS this morning, i dont read that as negative or positive, stop reading so much into it ppl!! Just says we are still for sale and process is ongoing but no significant update for now. That's it, speeding fine or not.

Its not black and white, its shades of grey and learn to read between the lines .

I've done a fair amount of research, enough that i've invested a significant amount. But was hoping for clarification from someone more knowledgeable on this.

I've been using 35p SP per £1b T/O price (so £5b T/O = 35p x 5 = 178p)

Am i correct in saying we only own 80% of the assets and therefore we would only get 80% of any sale? So the example above would in fact come to:
0.8*35p = 28p SP per £1b
28p*5 = 140p

Thanks

*£5b is just a hypothetical number, who knows what it will sell for.

Alba is looking promising, just doing my research on it, but is cheap just now and could be worth researching

i sure hope so, i bought another £50k this morning accross a few transactions, got in at around 31-32 avg.
Choosing to take a risk here, but could also day trade them for a very small profit
Keeping my main holding untouched