Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi all, and thanks for the kind thoughts.
Have now finished conversations with NHS 111. To their credit, they have taken this issue seriously and have contacted the health service in Italy that is responsible for the hospital visited and it’s not in the areas of Lombardy with the current cases.
However, as Italy is not yet ‘on the list’ of countries of concern, there is no option for testing, either free or paid for.
It’s being treated as standard flu and “no need for [us]to self isolate”.
I think we are only hours away from Italy being added to the list, and I pointed out to NHS 111 that italy has frog-leaped several of the Asian countries on the list, in terms of number of cases, in the last 24 hours, so should most certainly be ‘on the list’, and that it probably would already be in the list if today was not a Sunday (and we all know senior staff at the NHS don’t work weekends).
Anyway, we are hunkering down and are assuming the best, but preparing for the worst.
Intrepid.

My child returned from a trip to the Lombardy region of Italy at the weekend and has developed flu. They visited an hospital during their trip.
I’ve called NHS 111 and am waiting to hear what our next step is.
During one of the conversations With NHS 111, our local NHS operator informed me that none of our local hospitals use the Novacyt test; their current tests take between 48-72 hours.
Given we as a household are now in self-imposed isolation, I will be pushing for the Novacyt test and will be willing to drive a considerable distance to administer it.
You couldn’t make this **** up.
I will keep you all posted as to the outcome.

Hi.
It’s clear that the MMs + day-traders hold the SP in their grasp currently. I stopped day trading years ago. I now just buy and hold (until I no longer want to hold). My view is always 2 yrs +.
My view on NCYT is that it will likely drift back over the coming days if no substance on RNS. but the reality is, short term, none of us know. Whereas longer term? I know one thing; this co is now in serious ‘play’. It will either benefit massively from this pandemic (by selling lots of test kits) and/or it will be swallowed up by a rival within 2 years. It’s technology has clearly tweaked the nose of competitors, many of whom could buy this co from petty cash reserves.
I’m averaging 73p and will keep adding if it drops below that, as I suspect a takeover in 2 yrs will be considerably higher.
Whereas the rest of the market? It’s due a correction and the chaos in China might just be the catalyst everyone is looking for.
Buy NCYT, buy gold, short the DJ.
That’s my portfolio tweaks done. How difficult can this be? ;-).
Good luck all.

To the peeps asking what to do with their £2+ purchases yesterday;
Now is the time to average. Just bought some at 115.8.
Intrepid.

Time it and buy some more on the dips. They will be obvious, when we are in them.

Hi all.
I’m going to skip this BB until after the fund-raising has been completed.
My advice is to expect any and every possible ‘positive’ announcements from BIDS in the meantime, in an effort to get the SP as high as possible. They have come clean on the bad news; that the £10m revenue ‘contract’ is actually their equivalent of a ‘zero-hours’ workers contract (as I predicted) so no income from that over the next 6 months.
The RNS you need to look out for is the confirmation that this sector is now a bone-fide one recognised by their Intl ad board.
No-one will spend money on this advertising sector until then.
I will come back once I’ve seen the £ raised (which WILL occur, and is the reason for lack of upward movement). Don’t worry, BIDS will have no worries raising the cash.

That’s the official figure. I have it on good authority it’s much worse than that.
What do you believe? Someone sending our ‘official figures’ from Chinese authorities or someone living in that country, who is nothing to do with the authorities and can get their observations ‘out’.
I’m not trying to ramp. Just letting people know what I have heard.

Hi BarnetPeter.
We are most certainly NOT being told the truth.
I have a relative with a contact in the province that includes wutun, in China. They are saying things are much worse than the world is being informed of.
These ‘figures’ are going to grow massively outside of China, particularly in ‘open’ states.
History is always a good guide. Virtually Ebru country lied to its citizens during the ‘Spanish flu’ outbreak of 1917-1919.
In fact, it’s only called ‘Spanish flu’ because the Spanish authorities were honest about their figures, making it appear to observers in other countries (including UK, USA et al) that it was originally a Spanish pandemic. It wasn’t.
My point is, prepare for the fact that we are being lied to; and hope that I am wrong.

Well said Comek2.
As an ex MM, I know those on the outside cannot beat the market day-trading, over time. Sure, one or two exceptions might, but that’s the law of averages and standard deviation. This is no bell curve. There are far more losers than winners.
Hold this stock, but top-slice to lock in profits at a level you are happy with.
Intrepid.

Hi.
A relative has a client based in the same province as Wutun.
They are saying the situation is far worse than Chinese govt letting on. I’ve heard a figure of 24,500 dead and running at 20% in the province. All totally unsupported by official figures. But even the official figures suffer from ‘lag’. It took that Dr who tried to alert everyone nearly a month to die. He was in good health, was only 41 and presumably had the best medical attention that was available in the area.
If a month is the time it takes to kill the bulk of people (younger, healthy bods), then the fatality rates will spike massively (or already have, and are being suppressed.
Even if all that turns out to be not the case, think this whole episode is going to lead to a global slowdown and resulting market routs. All my own thought and happy to be debated.

Hi bottmzup.
JD stated in the last AGM that patents would not work for BIDS. Rationale was that anyone could and would create their own coding to do the same thing. Think Microsoft OS verse Unix or Linx.
They all do the same thing. Microsoft won out due to the contract it signed with IBM. JD stated this is a contracts race. Nothing more. Signing contracts with as many as possible was/is his goal.
But I am pretty certain that this ‘new’ sector is not recognised within as industry categories yet, (unless someone can point to bone-fide announcement to the contrary?).
That lack of official recognition is the block currently. No marketing director of note will authorise budgets until that occurs.

I agree Andinio. (Sp??)
Bids now need to get the placing out of the way ASAP; unless they have a serious card up their sleeve (or potential for one soon).
I posted earlier today (but it’s been removed) that I thought the SP is now a punt as it will only take one good RNS at this Level.
I think BIDS need to nail down the confirmation that this is a bona-fide ad category. That’s strategically vital now. Without it, no one is buying their ads.

Hi JimmyStocks.
In answer to your question of where the money is being spent; see my previous posts. I predicted £500k pcm spent and gave a rough breakdown on one of them.
Note I am now a ‘weak buy’ from ‘hold’.
The inevitable dilution to come stops this from being a stronger buy at these levels. But it only needs one positive RNS and these will show decent return from this level. So worth a punt. But I’m still not going to buy any more myself. Holding enough and have put spare cash into other investments for now.
Intrepidinvestor.

Hi YummyBacon.
I don’t think BIDS will “crash and burn”.
One thing the world is full of is cash looking for a home. They will ask and get the cash they need. It’s the cost to current shareholders that is the unknown. How diluted will we be afterwards.

There we have it. Current burn thru rate is c. £500,000 per month. BIDS has money to last until June, at best.
Cash call will now be on the back of whatever positive RNS they can muster between now and June, or, if no positive RNS available, they will wait until the last possible moment.
I think they are likely to get some sort of positive RNS in H1, but it won’t be revenue-based (still not significant in H1 means that deal of 19DEC19 is not delivering) and, for the life of me, I can’t think what it will be. I’ll stab at they get the sector recognised as an official category with the Internet advertising board. That would be my focus, as I suspect the lack of that category recognition is the block to decent revs mounting up.
6p today.

Coolio. I hope you are right. I think the radio silence is actually confusing. They said they would go silent, but that was before they were then apparently/arguably forced to go quiet as the only news was not good. That means it is possible to read whatever we want to into the silence.
I posted some time back that I think they will need to raise cash about March-May time. Any lag past that should therefore be seen as good news and the price might start moving upwards (good for fund-raising). Alternatively, the revs are pile-ing in very strong, in which case we will see the holy-grail RNS (and a subsequent much cheaper fund-raising).
You pays yer money and you takes yer choice.
It's a buyer's punt at these levels or an investors hold. I won't buy more unless the price slips back considerably or there is a fab RNS. I'm happy with my reduced stake and it's cost, given all variables.
best
Intrepid

Hi Jabberba.
Sorry, but I must have missed your post.
What are you referring to when you say “the longer this goes on”?
If you are referring to the delay on the 2019 results, there is no real ‘delay’ currently. BIDS has until 30JUN20 before these are ‘late’ and there are a dozen reasons why they do or don’t publish early (now) or late (June) or anywhere in between.
They have signalled that the revs for 2019 were “insignificant”. I take that to mean ‘very low’. So they don’t benefit from holding back the results purely on revenues, as we know them already and that’s priced in. The real benefit to BIDS to hold back the results (and they will now or very soon know them, if their CFO is any good), is that the results will have to detail the cash-in-hand on 31DEC19, which, in turn, will reveal their burn-thru rate.
My view is that this needs to be hidden from the market until after the fund-raising.
I could be wrong and you could be right and the revenues are now pouring in at a level that more funds are not needed.
However, in my experience, the best time to raise money is when you don’t need it, and I can envisage the BoDs choosing to raise more funds immediately following an RNS staring revenues are now established, are significant and growing rapidly. Who wouldn’t take up more shares in a placing then?
Even if I am right and revs are not high enough and BIDS is forced to raise cash, they will. It will just cost a lot more (in terms of dilution).
It is this simple exchange of possibilities that is dictating the SP currently.
Most of us fall either side of the ‘Will they,/won’t they raise cash. I actually think it’s inevitable they will. Question is, Will it be at sub 10p (in current situation) or over 25p (or much higher) following the amazing RNS you are predicting.
But mark my words; They will raise more cash at some point this year.
Best regards
Intrepid.

Count. I didn’t say you sold the other day. I said you posted a message that was decidedly bearish. That was my signal.
Sorry if you think I am an eternal bear; I must try harder with my communications skills, as you have the wrong impression of me. I’m a ‘hold’ and have been since the events of 18DEC19. I just believe we have to get the next fund-raising round out of the way, and I am happy to be proved wrong about this need, but am sticking with my view until I see something concrete.
In short (‘cuse the pun), I am on your side Count; I just disagree with you currently on the short term outlook (sub 6 months).
All the best
Intrepid.

I believe we are in a ‘bear squeeze’ currently.
It started the other day and was, interestingly, signified to us all when the Count posted he was running out of positivity.
The theory is that once the last of most determined bulls are persuaded the bear’s view is the correct one (as displayed by the Count), then that represents the last of the selling, as there is no-one else willing to sell; and the share price stabilises. This stability quickly puts pressure on the bears (to lock in profits) and they then close their shorts or buy back in, causing a temporary price rise. The key word is temporary. After the initial rise, it usually requires further RNS to dictate SP movements. For those who say there is no way to short; you are not looking hard enough. There is always a way to short; either by borrowing shares via a broker (but only private client brokers in my experience) or using derivatives. And then there are the MMs. If they were short and read the Count’s comment, they would have closed their short immediately, to get the temporary rise. I know I would have, and that was precisely why I responded to the Count’s comment, as I believed it was a very significant moment, psychologically. If you don’t believe me, read The hour between dog and wolf’ by John Coates.
All one big theory, devised by minds much brighter than mine.

Hi MGXYZ.
I think your comment this tweet will be seen however the reader wants is right on the money.
From my viewpoint, I’m so sceptical of JD that I wouldn’t put it past BIDS to create that image/clip/whatever it is, just to try and haul the SP up, without any real positive development between the two companies.
Alternatively, BIDS may be paying EA money for this advertising space. That would be the ultimate irony; BIDS paying out money instead of receiving it.
The optimists amongst us will see this as a sign a deal is imminent or concluded. However, why the rely on inference rather than actual RNS.
All stinks of more smoke and mirrors to get the SP up to help with the soon-to-be-announced fund-raiser.
I guess the best I can muster is that, at these levels, this is still a reasonably priced punt for a small % of ones portfolio. So, anyone lucky enough not to have bought in yet, (at higher levels) can do so with some less angst than earlier investors.
However, this tweet thing still does not represent ‘revenue’.