Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Having sold the last of my holdings earlier in the week, I’m now hearing a rumour of an imminent announcement. Can’t find out any details, but I’m making an assumption it is to do with funding. If so, I can’t see it being a placing, (No one will invest in anything right now) which makes me conclude it will be a takeover (of BIDS by a.n.other).
As I say, no info just my own conclusions based on my own assumptions.
But in my experience, there is never smoke without fire.
Obviously could be an announcement about anything, including tie-ups, new games, sector category recognition, failure to raise cash and therefore reducing staff/overheads.
But my view is takeover.
Best of luck all.
Intrepid.

Will gap up to over £2. May even go on to £3, Poss £4. But will fall back to below £2 as still dominated by day traders and spivs. So still not formed it’s legs yet. But that will come. Just not today.
I could be 100% wrong of course.

Hi all
You can email Matt HAN**** at (and I’ve written it this way, otherwise the message gets blocked

‘matt’ then full stop then ‘han****’ then a full stop then ‘mp’ then the ‘at’ sign then ‘parliament’ then a full stop then ‘uk’.

Tell him to get his act together and use the correct testing equipment at nhs.
Intrepid.

Dear all,
seems to me that this is still in a 'day trading' phase. until any material RNS, it does not seem its going anywhere out of it's range.
The wider range has been 64p to 220p, which we can now ignore, in the absence of any RNS. The narrower band seems to be 100p to 125p. Anything either side of that prompts the appropriate buy (if below 100p) and sales (if above 125p). I could be wrong but that's my observations.
anyone else?

Dear all,
I have made a decision to sell the last of my holding in BIDS. just sold 163,189 at 4.25p
Reason for sale: I cannot see any company raising money in this 5h!tstorm that is the global markets currently. I believe we are going through what will be a 2-3 month period where everything is 'null and void', in terms of what you can bank on. Moreover, companies everywhere will be cutting back on their marketing budges (always the first thing to be cut in desperate times) and that won't help BIDS to convince anyone to place some advertising with them. BIDS will need to either raise cash or place some serious advertising soon, and given my view on the overall market sentiment, I conclude they are snookered and the risk of failure is now to high for me (despite the fact that I was in for only £5k). I have, by my reckoning, cleared a grand total of £1700 profit following this sale. I was up nearly £200,000 at one point.
An old jobbers saying springs to mind; "it's never wrong to take a profit".
Wish I'd focused on that last year rather than right now.
good luck to you all and sure to see you on other BBs. I have a natural resistance to them but have found this one (BIDS) useful to judge the sentiment of private investors.
Intrepid.

The co that comes up with the cure? That might be Inovio pharma in the US. Up 200% in 3 days (since I suggested it to someone on this NCYT BB).
I’ve taken some profits here and put it in cos hunting for the cure. Both tests and cures will be needed in their tens of millions. Just have to look at the figures coming out of Italy. 79 of the 107 seriously ill people reported last Saturday were dead within 4 days. That is an underlying death rate of 8%. That statistic will eventually ‘out’ and it’ll be all hands on deck, just like in Wuhan.

As an ex-MM, I know it will be difficult for some of them running a book on this share to know where to open. They will have to rely on orders to judge. The lead MM (“the market” in my days) will take the lead.
My guess is that the SP will open stronger assuming that fund has finished its selling or there isn’t another big seller around (which is always possible after such a rise).
Intrepid.

Hi all.
This is the text of skynews report that this am. Sorry if already posted;

Coronavirus: US does not have enough test kits to meet demand
There are not enough coronavirus testing kits for Americans who want them, US vice president Mike Pence has admitted.
He said: "We don't have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate will be the demand going forward", before adding: "We've made real progress on that in the last several days."
Mr Pence was asked by president Donald Trump in February to coordinate the US government's response to the outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
US health officials say they expect to get enough coronavirus tests this week to test around 400,000 people.
Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said her agency would also supply kits by the end of the week for a further 75,000 people.
Read More
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'Major seismic hazard' under San Diego could devastate city
Elizabeth Warren to drop out of Democrat race
Britons stranded on cruise ship in California after coronavirus death
Meanwhile, President Trump was warning that the outbreak "certainly might have an impact" on the economy.
His words came a week after New York's Dow Jones recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history - down 4.4%, putting US markets on course for their worst week since the height of the 2008 financial crisis.
There were some gains the following day but on Thursday the Dow Jones fell another 3.6%., extending two weeks of wild swings in the market, with stocks fluctuating 2% or more for the fourth day in a row.
When asked about whether the outbreak has hurt the economy, Mr Trump said on Thursday: "It certainly might have an impact. At the same time, I have to say people are now staying in the United States spending their money in the US, and I like that."
He also praised Mr Pence for "working 20 hours a day or more" on the coronavirus response.
Some 233 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in 18 states, with 12 people having died, nine of them residents of Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland, Seattle, in the state of Washington.
A cruise ship is stranded off the coast of California after a former passenger died from the virus and several others fell ill.
The Grand Princess, which has more than 3,500 passengers and crew (including more than 140 Britons), was due to dock in San Francisco on Wednesday but remains at sea while tests are carried out.
Testing equipment have been lowered onto the ship's deck by a military helicopter and officials said results were expected on Friday.
Princess Cruise Lines said fewer than 100 people aboard had been identified for testing.
Italy
The centre of Europe's worst outbreak has started a 10-day shutdown of its education system, with schools and universities all closed.
The government has also urged people to stay at least one metre apart,

Dear all.
Result of our child’s test in today.
It was negative. Or more accurately “positive for influenza virus but Coronavirus not detected”.
They could not say what test was used but it took five days for our local NHS to deliver the result. Speaks volumes about that specific trust more than the test used. But it was sent away for analysis so clearly not a premierdesigns product.
Everyone in the house is relieved - except me. I have concluded that a great many of us will eventually get this and I think I’d rather get the virus before the masses, so that, if I were one of the 20% of criticals, I would be much more likely to get proper care. I suspect several weeks down the like, that won’t be the case.
Anyone know someone in Halesmere I can snog?
;-)

Hi all.
Our child was tested for COVID-19 on Weds in one of those ‘drive-by’ tests. We are still awaiting the result this morning. The poor child has been stuck in their room since last Sunday and we, as a household have been in self-isolation since then. We are in good spirits (lots of baking & art-crafting for the non-feverish little ones between home-schooling) and we are happy to carry out our civic duty.
I’ve been doing a great deal of thinking and research on this virus, as you can imagine.
I had a bit of an epiphany Friday night, as to what’s been baking my noodle since late January.
For weeks now I have been questioning why the Chinese bothered to lock down hundreds of millions of people if the virus only kills 2%. That fact did not make sense and I therefore assumed the virus was more deadly than we are being led to believe.
Then I watched a Professor on a late night BBC show on Friday describe the core issue; that the ‘peak’ of new cases must be flattened out (by containment) otherwise health services will quickly becomes overwhelmed. The issue is then that the 20% who get serious of critical symptoms will not all be able to receive hospital treatment, as there simply won’t be enough beds/ventilators etc. to go around.
At that point, the death rate amongst the 20% with serious/critical symptoms will escalate from the current 10% (of the 20% ‘serious/criticals’) to a much higher %.
To put this into numbers; italy currently has 1129 cases with 29 deaths. That represents a 2.5% death rate. That’s high but not alarmingly so. All those in a serious condition (currently 105) are receiving full appropriate hospital treatment. The Italian health service can cope with those numbers so most of those 105 will survive.
However, imagine if the numbers spike? For example, there are a million cases in 4 weeks time.
Then the number of criticals will be c 100,000 to 200,000. There is no way their health service will be able to hospitalise that number of people so, without intensive care, a larger number will die. So it won’t be 10,000-20,000 of the million infected, it will be 100,000 plus.
So, the issue is am will always be about containment. The Chinese realised this and so, soon, will the rest of us.
Keep well all
Intrepid.

To CountD.
I’m responding to your earlier post. Again seems it’s another post that’s been deleted.
I am not a de-ramper. I hold some shares but am only volunteering opinions based on facts. You only have to review my last posts on BIDS to see I’ve kept my opinions to how I am seeing the situation at that time.
I only turned negative when I couldn’t see any obvious adverts in GRID2, after it’s launch, and formed that up following the directors sells.
I’ve even thought about buying back in at sub 6p, but the Coronavirus has put paid to that idea. Everything is heading south for now, so why buy anything?
Of course, my sentiment will change, but not sure when. Since I am currently in an household that is in ‘self-isolation’ due to a child having returned from Italian alps with flu (and still awaiting results of their test) I will admit that my psychic is probably a bit more ‘affected’ by the virus than others; but that isn’t the reason for my negativity for BIDS, as you feel you see it. I am negative to the extent they need to raise cash and that process has become much harder in the last 10 days. I still believe in this sector and it’s opportunity.
Intrepid.

Hi clusterbuck (great pseudo, btw).
I took part in the last placing. It was not ‘institutional’ per se, but HMWIs in the main.
Most of those same HNWIs will be currently sitting on 15%+ losses in their overall portfolios, not to mention some will be nursing losses on BIDS. that said, many clearly sold out for profits; but that was then. There’s no ‘quick buck’ to be made on BIDS from taking up placing shares. There won’t be momentum to carry this into the teens and beyond; not with the current market backdrop. We know that much now.
Therefore any placing will need to be at a significant discount to the current SP, to give some room for early profits. A large percentage of placement takers look to sell some early to lock in profits/de-risk their investment.
Hope this helps.

Hi Wilson63.

The key word is “continues”. This word would have been carefully chosen as it clearly indicates that there is continuum from the previous period. That previous period was reported as low/insignificant. Ergo H1 2020 will ‘continue’ as before. Therefore we have been told not to expect revenues in H1. Hence my conclusions & recommendations.
I’m holding my shares (as, as reported before, am in for virtually free following previous sales of larger holdings) but expect to lose the lot now, or be asked for more cash. That’s just life.

In response to new2trade, whose post seems to have been removed;

Administration is a real threat here now that wider global financial markets are in free-fall. I’ve been there. BIDS is really going to struggle to raise cash now. Whereas 4 weeks ago, they would have raised cash. All the big-wigs you say won’t want to have their names on a falling stock, probably didn’t foresee this rout caused by coronavirus and they all joined prior to this single ‘black swan’ event.
Also, by the fairly abusive tone of your post and argument that the big-wigs won’t want to be involved with a failure , it seems you are mid-understanding what ‘administration let is. A CVA (Company Voluntary Administration is a controversial but highly effective way to take full control of a company on the cheap. Mike Ashley lost c £100m to one at Debenhams and he is no fool. But he was in the outside, as a shareholder. Those on the inside (the directors), can often call the shots without challenge (they can be challenged, but in my experience, nearly impossible).
So your boardroom ‘big-wigs’, being on the inside, won’t lose out and will argue they are ‘saving the company’.
I’ve seen it time and again. It’s now a real possibility, given current market conditions and need for cash.
All this said, there’s no need to get abusive; that just highlights your unresolved childhood issues of feelings of unimportance, which now manifest as aggression when you are not in control. I could go into detail on this but this is an investment board not a psychology one.
Intrepid.

Hi Wilson63.
There is an RNS out saying still no significant revenues in H1 2020.
Look at the last paragraphs of the results RNS of 11FEB20. Says “revenues in H1 will continue to be minor”. JD’s words.

..... it cut off my last sentence;
Let’s debate this as constructively as possible.

Hi all.
Thanks to the chance for putting in a thread that is about the only topic that matters to BIDS.
I’ve not looked at the BB for a while as I’ve been busy hedging against Coronavirus and it’s obvious conclusion - one big global recession.
Knowing this (the ‘recession’ bit) makes it much easier to predict other things, like; what are the crucial factors for BIDS.
Fact 1. No revs in H1 2020 (JD confirmed).
Fact 2. £3.ish million in the bank 31DEC19.
Fact 3. Burn thru rate of c. £500k per month (MINIMUM - important this bit).
Fact 4. BIDS will run out of cash June/July.
Fact 5 + Assumption 1 - It takes about 8 weeks to realistically organise cash-raising, from start to finish. Can be quicker or longer, but 8 weeks is a good guide. Therefore BIDS realistically has another 2 months before they MUST focus on cash raising above all other matters. In reality, I strongly hope they are already doing that.
Fact 6. This ****storm of a market is no place to try to raise cash.
Assumption 2. BIDS will need at least another £5m to see them thru another year. They will likely need upwards of £10m before cash flows turn positive (MAJOR assumption alert!).

Given all the above facts (and 2 assumptions), what can we conclude?

1. BIDS is going to have to raise cash much more expensively than anticipated 4 weeks ago. Which means more dilution. Expect the raising to be c 2p -4p, but no higher (this is a major assumption but based on experience).

Whether we like it or not, the only way to avoid that solution will be for current shareholders to put that money into the co.
But will they?
I think I will, but I suspect most others won’t. If I am wrong, then BIDS could carry out Rights issue. THIS IS A MAJOR POINT WE SHOULD DEBATE HERE).
If I am right, (current shareholders say ‘no’) that means one of the following;

1. Placing at below current prices. Mass dilution (thing 70% to 90%).
2. Allow the company to go into insolvency/voluntary administration and attempt rescue.

In 1 above, current shareholders are still in the game (just).
In 2 above, current shareholders are wiped out (think Mike Ashley in Debenhams - he lost the lot).

Regardless of the above, I firmly believe that this new niche market will be constructed and prove to be a major earner for someone. My point is that, for it to be BIDS, they must navigate the above.

My view is that we have to all consider and actively promote a rights issue, otherwise we lose out. If this is allowed to go into a CVA someone else will reap massive rewards ( including James and Fran - they are key so will still be involved in the revived entity).

I know what I would do if I was Draper - I would go the CVA route and source a VC partner. That way I shed all the private shareholders and (admittedly light) AIM regulations. That would be a much easier environment to continue this work in.

Recommendations;
Either sell now or push for a rights issue and participate in that

Hi Olly8850.
Speaking as someone who is currently in a household of 7 people in ‘self-isolation’, I can confirm that the inability of the NHS to provide and immediate test result means that we now have to wait for the result of the test for nearly 4 days. There are 2 main issues with this;
Firstly, we are cooped up for that extended period and 4 children are missing school and social interactions.
Secondly, anyone we have been in close contact with prior to our being ‘self-isolated’ are still ‘at large’. 3 of our children went to school on Monday. If we test positive, those schools will shut down immediately, to avoid further spreading.
It is obviously in the population’s interest to close contaminated schools etc earlier than 4 days later.
Testing aids the process to restricting spreading.
The real danger here is not the virus per se, but the potential wave of cases all at once. The NHS will be instantly and completely overrun if a million people give this virus in one month. That would equate to 200,000’serious or critical’ cases. There simply isn’t that spare capacity for intensive care in the NHS.
Therefore, of those 200,000 (per million), it won’t be 2% dying but a much higher percentage, simply because most of those 200,000 ‘serious/criticals’ won’t receive appropriate (or any) care.
That is the real risk here. And quick testing will assist in avoiding a massive spike.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
So, said child has now been tested. Still awaiting the result as our local NHS trust is clearly not using NyCt kit. That said the local trust not the best (by far) and clearly isn’t run by rocket scientists (or any kind of scientist, for that matter!).
That said, I have also messaged Matt Han****, highlighting all our findings - the main one being we still don’t know if our household and therefore our wider social circles have been exposed to COVID-19.
I met him in a professional capacity when he was Digital Minister and I have to say he is ‘on it’. He is a first class individual who makes things hsppen (well, did in that previous case, and quickly). He is undoubtably the best politician we could hope for as health Secretary, at this current time.
Intrepid.

Open over 150p, rising quickly over 220p, before falling back below 200p. Close lower than open.
That’s a predictable and oft-seen pattern.