Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi.
The advantage would be tax driven. If not holding these in a tax wrapper, you would rather receive a dividend in some tax jurisdictions and the capital gains in others, depending on your own circumstances.
Intrepid.

And finally..........
Don’t forget this thing will roller-coaster like a brides hemline until RNS confirming final expected sales from CoVid-19.
Could got back down to £2.50 before it sees £5 again.
Hope so as I might then buy some more.
For now I’m an ‘Hold’.
Intrepid.

Meant to add to the range a ‘target’ SP of £16.90. As I’m naturally bearish, let’s call that £15.
Intrepid.

Hi Acuere.
Really useful post of yours.
However, I can’t agree with your conclusion on Marcap of £4b ish.
That would and could only be the case on fundamentals of the sales forecast for 2020 were likely repeatable into the future.
However, unless we get a new novel virus Emery year from here, then that simply won’t be the case for NCYT.
Assuming sales return to normal after this, then, at best, we can expect a special dividend to distribute these one-off massive profits, which should be reflected penny for penny in the share price - if the spec div is £3 per share held, then those shares will hold that extra £3 until going ex-div and then lose that figure.
On top of that ‘fundamental’ marcap increase, we should now expect one for ‘goodwill’; simply put, NCYT’s Marcap Will now hold a certain element of ‘goodwill’ that is driven by a) it’s potential to help out in any given new virus alert and b) it’s attractiveness as a buyout target.
Either of these will ensure the SP does not fall back to the original levels, once it goes ex-div.
so the thing we need to work out is what is that ‘goodwill’ figure.
My guess is that a mega-pharma or five might happily pay £500m to £1b for this company now it’s ‘proven’ , but not £4b.
So I think the target SP should be the profit figure you created plus £750b.
That means c £1.1b. with range ££770b to £1.37b.
So SP range £11.85 to £21.10.
Obvs all massive assumptions but I simply can’t see any pharma paying £4b goodwill for a company that can make £370m once in every pandemic.
Happy to hear all other views.
Intrepid.

Hi Mattremlit.

Without an RNS we are guessing, albeit with certain amount of education.

My view is that someone somewhere has got wind of something that is driving the price way above all the known or extrapolated fundamentals.

For example, there have been c 12m tests carried out as of yesterday (source worldometer.org)
If NCYT even has 50% of those and future sales, would mean net sales c £50 - £100m by the end of this virus (after all costs).
Because that is a one-off boost to sales rather than repeated into the future, the SP should reflect that. In practice that means a one-off special dividend of c 80p to 150p per share. But not £5 per share.
For the share to push this high suggests there might be a bid potentially looming over the horizon, presumably higher.
Or this could be simply speculative puff.
In the former, the price will settle near likely takeover price, driven by insider trading (yes, it happens all the time).
In the latter, it’s anyone’s guess.
So I will guess this could hit £8 or even £10, then drop down to £6.
Or it could pull back to £2.50, which seems the ‘natural’ level.
Just pure guesswork based on 35 years active investing.
Intrepid.

Maybe the idea of switching salaries for shares might still have legs?

Hi jimmystocks.
I stand corrected. It seems BIDS will have to furlough staff to benefit and furloughed staff must not work.
I’ve not had to furlough any staff so not been through the details.
£25000 max benefit on business rates won’t even blip on their cash flows, if still running at £500k a month.
In that case, it’s revenues or funding by June.
Ho hum.
Intrepid.

Hi humbogumbo.
Way to go, my friend. Like the cut of your jib.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
As a sailor myself, I am envious of you.
Intrepid.

Hi jimmystocks.
I know you think I work for some share tipster. Not sure how you came to that view but it is what it is (incorrect).
I have put lots of assumptions down over the months. But my comment that figures are instant is not one of those assumptions. It was confirmed at the last AGM as a fact.
I mention it because it is a vital fact. There is no ‘historical’ aspect to BIDS revenue gathering as is the case in many businesses; BIDS know what their revenue is the moment an impression is made thru their technology on a gamers screen. It is simply 100% live and instant. Same with Facebook and google ads. Those 2 insist on being pre-paid (as far as I am aware) - let’s hope bids are doing the same.
but I sense a growing consensus that proven revenues are now the key.
Intrepid.

The Count and I have gained a bit more of an understanding of each other and quite civil exchanges on NCYT. We mean no harm to each other and hopefully enjoy the ribbing.
Re my view on BIDS. I still hold a £1k per point interest on IG. I suspect I won’t sell at 12p but also expect the fundraising will go thru successfully. But I predict that the SP won’t take off until both that fund-raising and proven genuine revenues are sorted.
I still think the key to the revenues is the official classification of this new channel as a bonafide advertising category.
So that’s 3 things I think need to occur before this gets a rocket up it’s a.
1. More funds
2. Category recognition
3. Proven revs (which could theoretically occur before 1 is required if 2 is met also before 1 is required.
I calculate BIDS may have a bit more time than June for cash call. Govt help with salaries will likely help with c. 45%-50% of their wage bill - based on assumption that the average wage at BIDS is c £50k pa. so a cost to the company of £55k pa or £4500 pcm; cover of £2500 pcm will reduce that cost by roughly 45%.
As I suspect they could also offer shares to employees in lieu of missing 55% of salary, that could reduce their wage bill to zero.
That’s what I would do. That would mean reduction of cash burn-thru rate of c £250,000 per month. Which means that June abyss gets pushed back to September.
Only fly in the ointment is that the lack of an RNS to confirm the wages issue suggests BIDS have either not thought thru things (worrying) or it’s not possible (most staff overseas and therefore not covered).
Fingers crossed for an RNS that does shed some light on this cost issue and shows BIDS has managed to reduce the wage bill.

Heavens above!
PoD (“Prince of Darkness” aka CountD) is posting on NCYT. Seems he wants his money in there now.
Whatever next?
Are you still keeping the faith here PoD?
Intrepid.

Hi MrNation.
It’s both interesting and ironic that you choose NCYT as your comparison share.

I, too, cited NCYT only the other day on this BB, following the bizarre comment from County-Mr-something-of-the-night-about-him, who inferred I was “sick” for investing in and commenting in NCYT. My response to his off-topic personal attack on me was to highlight that NCYT have issued RNSs with actual meaningful figures in them; unlike BIDS, which is still only capable of issuing RNSs written by ‘sleight of hand’ - RNSs containing no material meaningful content but enough subject matter to allude to good times.
NCYT, on the other hand, say things like “orders for 3.5m kits [at £8 each]” and “we are unable to predict our future sales but can confirm rapidly increasing and sustained enquiries” (or words to that effect). NCYT has increased c 35 times in less than 3 months because they have confirmed they have orders and cash in the bank. Of course, the steep rise (which I’ve only ever seen in one of my investments once before - Amber Day back in 87’) is solely down to their particular niche product and COVID-19 global pandemic.

I still think BIDS may one day raise 30 times but I guarantee that will only now be on the back of proven revenues (and, just to be clear, not necessarily profits - revenues alone will do it).
Continued smoke and mirrors from a clearly dis-trusted CEO won’t.
I am currently of the opinion that BIDS is now very likely getting lots of enquiries but still no revenues. Because it is 100% guaranteed that, if revenues were already flowing, Dramper would have told us in no uncertain terms already. Their reporting systems are instantaneous (they know the figures the moment someone ‘views’ an impression) so they know what their revs are.
As for the Prince of Darkness’ comment re my being sick for investing in NCYT: without my capital and tgat of everyone else, there would be no NCYT to help in the fight against Coronavirus & COVID-19.
Freedom of capital allocation and trust placed in those we give it to is 95% of the answer to the question “how are we going to beat this or any future pandemic?”
Enjoy the sun today everyone.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I’m sitting in the garden under some shade reading Alan Greenspan’s autobiography and have happened upon an apt quote that I think is highly appropriate to BIDS current SP.
He writes “Well-being- that is, wealth creation- requires people to take risks. We can’t be sure our actions to acquire food, clothing, and shelter, for example, will succeed. But the greater our trust in the people with whom we trade, the greater the accumulation of wealth. In a market system based on trust, [such as all western capitalist economies], reputation will have a significant economic value. Reputation, capitalised formally as “goodwill” on business balance sheets or otherwise, is an important contributor to the market value of a company”.
Mr Greenspan eloquently puts it - the reason for the BIDS SP languishing at these low levels is because Dramper abused the trust we gave him and now has no “goodwill” left.
Might be time for BIDS to bring in a new CEO.
All food for thought.
I’m back to my book.
Intrepid.

IMO this spiked at 13:35GMT.
that means USA market activity.
I guess someone in the US knows about sales figures or order there, or that a US company wants to bid.
Ive crunched some basis numbers.
as of yesterday 10million tests have been confirmed as conducted worldwide and now at least 10 countries are trying to test at 100,000 per day each so that means 1m new tests per day for the foreseeable future (3 months?).
assuming NCYT has 20% market share, and their pricing is still £8 per test and 85% gross margins, that means c. £120m in sales - some of which they will need to give to their new partners. I guess 50% so they are left with c. £60m clean profit for 3 months of testing. any increase in testing period will increase at c. £700,000 per day profit.
Good luck all, but don't forget to bank some profits. Choose a level and stick to it. I locked in a free ride at £1.47 (selling a 1/3 of the original purchase at 37p). Very pleased with that trade still, as it means I have no stress now.
Intrepid.

Hi woodaldo
By advising everyone of ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ we are just pointing out that right now (8am) might not be the best time to buy, as there will likely be a spike and pull back.
The original RNS in March saw this spike at 220p (then pull back to 60p). Those buying at 220p are having to sweat and wait for any profits.
Intrepid.

Hi all
According to the data at worldometers.info page on covid-19, there have been circa 10million tests for Covid-19 already carried out, as reported by the health services of all nations affected.
Odds on that NCYT is one of the leading suppliers.
However, expect a spike today and remember the old square mile dictum;
“Buy the rumour, sell the news”.
That’s an old saying that reflects what the smart money does and represents why spikes occur (sorting rise and fall back after RNSs).
Best wishes all.
Intrepid.

Morning all bidilevers.
I promise this will be my only post today.

Everyone should double their holdings at these cheap prices, ready for the fantastic RNS we know is coming on Monday 6th April, along with all that fresh new ISA wonga.
#COMEON25p!!!
#SHOWMETHEMONEY!!!
Intrepid.

I know one thing good to come out of this pandemic for BIDS......................
they don't need to hold their AGM as a public event currently.
I'd jump all over that if I was the Company Secretary of BIDS.
Who'd want the likes of me turning up and asking awkward questions?
And yes, I still hold a few actual shares (i missed some in an ISA so they are like little orphaned shares - but allow me to attend AGMs etc).
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
COME ON 25p.
that's me done for the day.
got some dogs wanting walking.
intrepid

Hi Hopeabound.
then it must be true. money must be flowing in at a pretty rate.
because that's what dramper has said in that RNS. He clearly said '...........which is leading to 'significant revenue streams for BIDS'.
oh, hang on. have I got this wrong? Does 'high levels of inbound demand from advertising agencies' actually mean 'high levels of advertising being placed by advertising agencies, resulting in significant revenue streams for BIDS' or is it a 'Dramper-ism' , working in full sight of us all?
Come on 20p!!
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!
intrepid

oh, almost forgot
COME ON 12p!!
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!