Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi all.
Anyone seen the SFOR update this morning?
Sir Martin staying that COVID-19 “ is effectively and sadly a burning platform that will encourage and drive digital transformation. Agility will be a key, if not the key, corporate attribute and the faster, better, cheaper or speed, quality, value mantra will resonate even more with clients wanting a unitary P&L approach from their advisors. Clients will also be increasingly willing to explore all models - out-house, co-located or embedded, in-house - with the latter becoming more and more effective, particularly as clients seek to take back control, in a world where the walls of the walled gardens are growing higher and the battle with the tech platforms to control data and influence the direct to consumer relationship is key. The tragedy of covid-19 will only emphasise the importance of and accelerate the execution of this process and the already strong digital platform, hardware and software companies will only get stronger.”

He is saying his sector (same sector as BIDS) is on fire but things are very fluid. SFOR up 77% revenues like-for-like during the pandemic.

This is a good sign for BIDS. They obviously have little or no revenues right now, but COVID-19 is their opportunity. Let’s see if Dramper & Co can actually catch any of this global revenue whilst it is in flux like this.

If they don’t, Draper must go. For only a completely inept moron will be unable to convert this flux into hard cash.

“SHOW ME THE MONEY”

All the best
Intrepid

Hi AP-invest.
Every placing is unique but there are rules.
Basically, they cannot overstate-pitch’ it (make bigger claims than actually the case).
Yesterday’s was pitched at ‘new guy but no deal yet’, which is exactly in line with recent RNS.
intrepid.

Hi Mafs.
Sorry, but I have to disagree with you.
Of course the placing price matters. If done at 5p, (your reference point) that would value this company at c £17.7m. That would be an absurd valuation for a shell company with £800k as its only asset.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi AP-invest.
The good bit about your LISA predicament is that you are young enough to open one!
All the best,
Intrepid

Hi all.
I was approached during the placing yesterday. I ducked it as, essentially, this is a bet on whether a deal can be found in the next 2 months. That’s no real time so the unknown is whether there is a deal already lined up. Even then, it is extremely likely that the suitor company will need financing.

I deemed this too high risk as I not longer ‘trade’ shares. Dare I say it, but too intrepid.

Good luck to all on here, but don’t forget that July deadline of forced de-listing if no deal announced. Until then, strap in and “ ‘old ya ‘ands up in the air if you wanna go faster!”
Intrepid.

Hi Martbmth,
Is that the brokers note that is not being circulated publicly? more smoke n' mirrors if it is.

Also,' tis easy to say 'weighted' without giving any guidance on what that means. It means 'we can say what we like after the event'.
But it still does not remove the need to alter guidance if material change, under listing rules.
ergo - there is currently no material revenues otherwise they would have had to update on that and they haven't.
What do you think is going to happen here?
That they do a fund-raising without telling anyone their sales are improving?
or that they don't need a fund-raise because revenues are now flowing?
It can only be one or the other. If it is the former, then they are fools (and so is anyone else ramping this on that basis) and if it is the latter, they must inform the market as soon as they know that the reality is not following guidance. As guidance is that 'material' revenues will be in H2, (which infers H1 earnings will not be material) then any revenues coming in H1 that is sufficient to push back funding requirements is definitely, 100%, enough to obligate them to tell the market.
They are not telling us, so they are on course for fundraising, not revenues.
I'm flagging this up as it is a clear sign - bit like the founders selling shares in Sept last year. it's that obvious.
cheers
intrepid

hi Martbmth,
The rules are clear. Any 'change' to previous guidance must be communicated as early as possible. Given they have NOT communicated a change, there is no change. Last guidance was no revenues for H1, so that is still 'current'.
Ergo, no money is coming in right now.
It was the JD 'whisper' of cash now coming in that pushed these from 4p to 10p recently ( the whole "pandemic has opened up lots of opportunities which we are jumping all over" recent items).
This RNS makes it clear that there is still no cash coming in.
This is going back down to 4p or lower.
And at that level, a placing of £5m will cost c. 68% dilution, £10m will cost twice that.

Given that cost, if I was them, I'd go for £3m just to see me through to the end of H2 2020. If they don't get any revenues in by H2 2020, they are never going to (note; they won't, but others might). That lack of revs at 31DEC20 will show there is a fundamental block to the industry recognising this as a bonafide advertising category. Until that block is sorted, it means no revs and BIDS will likely be out of options on AIM; they won't raise cash on AIM after Y/E 2020 if they have still not got any cash coming in then. That leaves them with 2 options: 1. fold. 2. Sell (step in SFOR?).

We are back to my main point:
"SHOW ME THE MONEY!"
Cheers
intrepid.

Hi all,
So most of the info in the RNS was already known and priced in. There was 1 nugget that were not known and one 'hidden in open view':

1. New info.

2019 turnover was c. £140,000. This is what was meant by 'not significant' in the infamous DEC19 RNS. That it was less than the t/o of 2018 (which, as we all know was contrived turnover anyway) is immaterial. What it does show is that the H2 t/o was c. £116,000. That is at least a movement up from H1 2019, but then H1 was declared 'contrived' anyway, (as it was described as 'test' revenue), so can be ignored, and should be considered 'zero'. So, H2 2019 of £116,000 is the first real posting of revenues, assuming it is also not of the 'contrived' nature. Whether this is also 'test' revs is an unknown, but, we know they can and do do it, if you get my drift.

My view is that BIDS needs to clarify if that £116k from H2 2019 is genuine or another 'test' or whatever they wish to call it. And they also need to advise if it is loaded up towards the end of the period or where it came in. It is insignificant/irrelevant revenue if it is 'test' and it is a red flag if it is all revenue from when GRID 2 launched in SEP19 and then tapered off. But it would be a good sign if the £116k is all loaded into the latter month or 2.

2. Hidden in open view:

They have failed to give any guidance on H1 2020 but say that they are still on target for 'material' revenues in H2 2020.
As we are 2/3s through H1 2020, that omission can only mean they are still not creating any 'material' revenues in H1 2020, despite the '£10m contract' disclosed in DEC19 and despite all the buzz around recent activity due to COVID-19. Otherwise, they would have had to have mentioned it under the rules of 'forward guidance'.

Therefore, we now know that they are not creating any revs to keep them from needing cash. So, they will need that cash soon.
I think funding will be within 2 months, so these babies are going to drift lower until then.

I'm now a weak seller, and will look to re-purchase sub 5p or in the placing (which I think could be as low as 3p now). They will have no hassle raising the funds, but it will mean dilution (166m new shares at 3p for £5m - or c. 68% dilution). This stock is going nowhere until the elephant in the room has been dealt with.

Terrible RNS.

See you on the other side of that fund-raising.

cheers
intrepid.

Hi all
I predict the govt will this coming week implement changes to lockdown that will see the biggest companies able to resume work.
They will lay down stipulations across the board that will effectively move us back onto “trace and contain”.
This will involve lots of testing of both antigen and antibody. I suggest we all hold both ODX and NCYT for the next 12 months. This is not beaten. ‘Flattening the curve’ means spreading out (into the future) the number of cases of COVID-19.
Why would anyone hold one share and not the other.
All the best
Intrepid

Just had a quick look in.
Who rattled Jabberba’s chain?
He has only recycled his already disputed ‘list’.
From memory most of the points still relied on smoke/mirrors/magic hands/hope & holy intervention/proven revenues.
Let’s hope to god that the magic money tree is smokin’, and we can all catch some of it via BIDS.
Intrepid

Hi all.
My first post (I think) on Omega.
I’m in at 22p and bought more at 60p.
Thinking of adding.
What do people think the % chance of this company successfully launching a proven/certified product within 2 months.
I’m not only Interested financially but also personally: whole house has had the virus and now keen to get on with life if can prove am immune.
Getting bored with the lockdown now. Been nearly 8 weeks for us.
Your time to reply is appreciated.
All the best
Keep safe
Intrepid.

Hi.
Is anyone else here experiencing problems with the VOX markets app.
Mine started behaving oddly 2 days ago and now won’t let me log in.
Intrepid

Hi bluetigeruk.
So what do you think a likely successful buyout figure will be, based on DCFs?
Intrepid.

Hi MKumer
Good point, well presented.
But I think the real danger is not competition - there is room for several suppliers - but manufacturing bottlenecks. All test manufacturers will have exactly the same manufacturing issues; all the way from raw material thru to capacity limits and onto staffing issues.
But NCYT have been focusing on that and have signed up big pharmacies with spare capacity, before any competitor can, which means they are likely better placed than competitors.
I reckon the SP may hit £10 in the next few days, once these figures get analysed to death.
Intrepid.

I agree.
But I think everyone knows testing will be absolutely necessary now until at least 40% of the global population have been vaccinated or are immune.
That will take at least a couple of years.

Here’s my prediction again and trust me, I never ‘ramp’ but go on released or known Info:

Hi all
Very back of envelope stuff
I suggested an SP OF £15 on valuation of £1.1b a couple of weeks back on last RNS.
I now think these confirmed figures, along with the now ubiquitous view that testing is key to ending lockdowns and that we are 6 months min away from a vaccine, and that the manufacturing capacity is increased........
I think the new valuation should be c £4b
Based on assumed sales of c. £1b over the next 12 months, with EBTIDA of c £500m.
The valuation will be based on the expected ‘special dividend’ of c. £400m and the now guaranteed interest of a buyout.
That means an SP of somewhere around £60.
This will take some months to get there, possibly a year. And any bumps will really knock it back. Only bumps I can see are;
1. Cannot get raw materials to fulfill orders
2. Fire at a factory (or similar)
3. Buy out earlier than £60.
4. Vaccine in early.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all
Very back of envelope stuff
I suggested an SP OF £15 on valuation of £1.1b a couple of weeks back on last RNS.
I now think these confirmed figures, along with the now ubiquitous view that testing is key to ending lockdowns and that we are 6 months min away from a vaccine, and that the manufacturing capacity is increased........
I think the new valuation should be c £4b
Based on assumed sales of c. £1b over the next 12 months, with EBTIDA of c £500m.
The valuation will be based on the expected ‘special dividend’ of c. £400m and the now guaranteed interest of a buyout.
That means an SP of somewhere around £60.
This will take some months to get there, possibly a year. And any bumps will really knock it back. Only bumps I can see are;
1. Cannot get raw materials to fulfill orders
2. Fire at a factory (or similar)
3. Buy out earlier than £60.
4. Vaccine in early.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all
Very back of envelope stuff
I suggested an SP OF £15 on valuation of £1.1b a couple of weeks back on last RNS.
I now think these confirmed figures, along with the now ubiquitous view that testing is key to ending lockdowns and that we are 6 months min away from a vaccine, and that the manufacturing capacity is increased........
I think the new valuation should be c £4b
Based on assumed sales of c. £1b over the next 12 months, with EBTIDA of c £500m.
The valuation will be based on the expected ‘special dividend’ of c. £400m and the now guaranteed interest of a buyout.
That means an SP of somewhere around £60.
This will take some months to get there, possibly a year. And any bumps will really knock it back. Only bumps I can see are;
1. Cannot get raw materials to fulfill orders
2. Fire at a factory (or similar)
3. Buy out earlier than £60.
4. Vaccine in early.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I think this is my first post on here.
I bought in at the previous placing and still hold. So that hurts. Them’s the risks you take.
That said, I’m now buying again (More bought at 1.7p). I think GFIN are entering a new phase; one where they stop simply losing money on everything they do, but instead focus on the elements of esports that are truely scalable and can deliver revenues thru advertising.
So expect to see the live stadium style events scaled back and much more online activity. Their link up with BIDS is crucial and should allow further increases in ad revenues (assuming ‘in-game advertising’ gets recognised as a bonafide advertising category). I’m also a holder of BIDS (with profits).
My view is that now funding is sorted these will see several weeks of strong pricing...... hopefully back up to 4.5p and even higher.
If GFIN get the online aspect of this right, thy could see 10p by the end of the year.
All my own thoughts.
All the best,
Intrepid.

Isn't it obvious why?
there were several of us on this BB who said that the 'lumens' RNS of last week was another example of JD's 'sleight of hand'.
This RNS is to dissolve that one negative. It's certainly more positive than the previous RNS on the same subject because it removes the 'sleight of hand' element.
I think JD is now putting up a real defence and, presumably, he knows the best form of defence is attack (which, in this case, means delivering on core targets - get category recognised/raise extra funds or get significant revs coming in).
Come on 12p!
;-)
intrepid

Dear all
I must admit I’m buying into the allegations against this TW.
For some time now, I have had a niggling thought about the fact that no one knows anything about the competitors of BIDS; their not being list cos and therefore shielded from having to announce everything.
It had occurred to me that the problem for BIDS could be that it’s competitors were winning the land grab race, silently.
It never occurred to me that the unlisted competitors might be subversively undermining BIDS.
That said, they would only be able to successfully undermine BIDS regarding their revenues (or lack of it) if that were true.
As it did turn out to be true, (there are no revs) then the attack worked.
It now occurs to me that any competitor of BIDS are in a unique position; they would know BIDS have no revenues yet, because they themselves would also be in the same position.
All very seedy activity.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that I now think BIDS is oversold (for the above reason) and it is, or will soon be, generating its first real incomes. Moreover, it will successfully raise cash this month. And if it does not ask the market for cash this month, that will be enough proof for me that they are generating cash.
In short, I’m moving from ‘weak buy’ to ‘buy’ and I’ve bought another £500 per point on IG.
All the best
Intrepid.